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1.
Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of ice and snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Catchment areas at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual two-step approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to problems in the sounding.  相似文献   
2.
Probabilistic domain decomposition is proposed as a novel method for solving the two-dimensional Maxwell’s equations as used in the magnetotelluric method. The domain is split into non-overlapping sub-domains and the solution on the sub-domain boundaries is obtained by evaluating the stochastic form of the exact solution of Maxwell’s equations by a Monte-Carlo approach. These sub-domains can be naturally chosen by splitting the sub-surface domain into regions of constant (or at least continuous) conductivity. The solution over each sub-domain is obtained by solving Maxwell’s equations in the strong form. The sub-domain solver used for this purpose is a meshless method resting on radial basis function-based finite differences. The method is demonstrated by solving a number of classical magnetotelluric problems, including the quarter-space problem, the block-in-half-space problem and the triangle-in-half-space problem.  相似文献   
3.
This paper proposes a nonparametric approach to estimating the dependence relationships between circular variables and other circular or linear variables using copulas. The proposed method is based on the use of Bernstein copulas which are a very flexible class of non-parametric copulas which allows for the approximation of any kind of dependence structure, including non symmetric relationships. In particular, we present a simple procedure to adapt Bernstein copulas to the circular framework and guarantee that the constructed bivariate distributions are strictly continuous. We provide two illustrative case studies, the first on the relation between wind direction and quantity of rainfall in the North of Spain and the second on the dependence between the wind directions in two nearby buoys at the Atlantic ocean.  相似文献   
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5.
Shoreline gypsiferous sediments of an inland lake in central Spain furnishes valuable insight into reconstructions of early sedimentary changes related to shore fly–microbial mat interactions in fossil gypsum precipitating saline lake systems. The association of adult and larval forms of Ephydra (Diptera) with microbial matgrounds overlying the lake margin results in the formation of gypsiferous meniscate back‐filled burrows that provide an analogue for recurring, extensively developed trace fossils that occur in Cenozoic, but not older, lacustrine gypsum rocks. In this setting, sediment burrowing by ephydridae hinders significant preservation of microbialites. The overwhelming rise of Diptera at the onset of the Cenozoic resulted in extensive feeding and dwelling activity and contributed to reshape the saline aquatic habitat where microbial mats thrived, thus leading to the formation of specific trace fossils that are illustrative of the existence of microbes in the paleoenvironment.  相似文献   
6.
As coastal lagoons serve as nursery areas for some marine and estuarine fish, selective pressures of these brackish or hypersaline lagoons may influence the genetic structure of species and populations. We examined spatial and temporal genetic patterns at eight microsatellite loci in white seabream [Diplodus sargus (Linnaeus 1758)] recruits from the Mar Menor (Southeast Spain) and compared these loci with those in coastal populations from the open sea, observing a high degree of genetic diversity and spatio‐temporal genetic stability. However, the results suggest the presence of subpopulations or genetic substructures in the Mar Menor D. sargus population that could be interpreted as a homogeneous mixture of individuals from three differentiated subpopulations in the Mediterranean and evidence of the Wahlund effect. It also suggests that D. sargus adults return to their original spawning habitat, thus conserving the genetic differences among the respective populations over time. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon as a nursery area for the conservation of genetic diversity of D. sargus populations.  相似文献   
7.
This study sought to analyse the effects of climate change on Artemisia species growing in Sierra Nevada, a high mountain range in the south-east of the Iberian Peninsula, using pollen counts as a bioindicator. The study also examined the impact of Recovery Programmes implemented for the most endangered of these species. Analysis of historical Artemisia pollen-data series from 1992 to 2011 showed that flowering took place between late July and late September, but the trend towards higher summer temperatures detected over the series as a whole appeared to have delayed the start of flowering and brought forward the end of flowering, thus prompting a shortening of the season. A trend was also observed towards a delayed peak pollen period, together with a significant decline in the Annual Pollen Index, which was significantly influenced by rainfall over the months immediately prior to flowering. Recovery Programmes implemented for three species—Artemisia granatensis, A. alba subsp. nevadensis and A. umbelliformis—involved conservation measures including direct seeding and planting of seedlings. From the outset, these programmes led to a recovery of the Pollen Index, especially when using germinated seedlings, which adapted better than seeds to environmental conditions. In conclusion, pollen records proved to be a useful tool for assessing the status of endangered species.  相似文献   
8.
Karst Aquifer GIS‐based model (KAGIS model) is developed and applied to Mela aquifer, a small karst aquifer located in a Mediterranean region (SE Spain). This model considers different variables, such as precipitation, land use, surface slope and lithology, and their geographical heterogeneity to calculate both, the run‐off coefficients and the fraction of precipitation which contributes to fill the soil water reservoir existing above the aquifer. Evapotranspiration uptakes deplete water, exclusively, from this soil water reservoir and aquifer recharge occurs when water in the soil reservoir exceeds the soil field capacity. The proposed model also obtains variations of the effective porosity in a vertical profile, an intrinsic consequence of the karstification processes. A new proposal from the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index, adapted to arid environments, is presented and employed to evaluate the model's ability to predict the water table oscillations. The uncertainty in the model parameters is determined by the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation method. Afterwards, when KAGIS is calibrated, wavelet analysis is applied to the resulting data in order to evaluate the variability in the aquifer behaviour. Wavelet analysis reveals that the rapid hydrogeological response, typical of a wide variety of karst systems, is the prevailing feature of Mela aquifer. This study proves that KAGIS is a useful tool to quantify recharge and discharge rates of karst aquifers and can be effectively applied to develop a proper management of water resources in Mediterranean areas.  相似文献   
9.
The aims of this study are to identify the trend of warm days and cold nights over the Iberian Peninsula and to connect the variations with large-scale variables. The reasons for performing this analysis are the effects that extremes events have on different ecosystems. Here, we present the results on spatial and temporal variability of warm days (TX90), or those exceeding the 90th percentile of maximum temperature, and cold nights (TN10), or those falling below the 10th percentile of minimum temperature. The extreme indices were derived from daily observations at stations and gridded data over land area for the period 1950 to 2006. Significant trends of more warm days and fewer cold nights were found. The trend to fewer cold nights is within the interval of global results given by the IPCC AR4 report; however, the trend to warm days is greater than the corresponding global trend. The influence of large-scale variables on these extreme indices was examined by means of the Empirical Orthogonal Function, correlation, composite maps and multiple regression analyses. Changes in TX90 are connected with the Scandinavian teleconnection index and a preferred mode of geopotential height at 500 hPa over the North Atlantic. Changes in TN10 are connected with the East Atlantic teleconnection index and the leading mode of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic area. Based on the links between the extreme indices and the large-scale variables we derived statistical models to describe the response of TX90 and TN10 to atmospheric circulation and SST variations. The models characterized the observed variations of TX90 and TN10 reasonably well. The results of this study encourage us to analyze, in further work, how temperature extremes might change over the Iberian Peninsula under warmer climate conditions.  相似文献   
10.
We evaluate the feasibility of Bose–Einstein condensate stars (BECS) as models for the interior of neutron stars (NSs). BECS are compact objects composed of bosons, formed through the spin-parallel pairing of neutrons. Here, we utilize the astronomical data from GW170817, XMMU J173203.3-344518 (the lightest NS known), and a novel lower limit on NS core heat capacity to scrutinize the compatibility of BECS with these recent observations of NSs. Our specific focus is to constrain the values of the scattering length a $$ a $$ , parameter determining the strength of particle interactions in the model. Our analysis suggests that if the stars involved in GW170817 were BECSs, the scattering length of their constituent bosons should fall within the 4 $$ 4 $$ to 10 $$ 10 $$ fm range. Additionally, at a scattering length of a ∼ 3.1 − 4 $$ a\sim 3.1-4 $$ fm, stars with mass and radius characteristics akin to XMMU J173203.3-344518 are identified. Moreover, we find that the heat capacity depends on the mass and temperature of BECS, and surpasses the established lower bound for NS cores when a > 2 − 5 $$ a>2-5 $$ fm. In summary, our results endorse BECS models with a ∼ 4 $$ a\sim 4 $$ fm, providing NS observables in agreement with diverse observations and contributing to the understanding of NS interiors.  相似文献   
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