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Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) seem to have potential as tools for real‐time seismic risk management and mitigation. In fact, although the evacuation of buildings requires warning time not available in many urbanized areas threatened by seismic hazard, they may still be used for the real‐time protection of critical facilities using automatic systems in order to reduce the losses subsequent to a catastrophic event. This is possible due to the real‐time seismology, which consists of methods and procedures for the rapid estimation of earthquake features, as magnitude and location, based on measurements made on the first seconds of the P‐waves. An earthquake engineering application of earthquake early warning (EEW) may be intended as a system able to issue the alarm, if some recorded parameter exceeds a given threshold, to activate risk mitigation actions before the quake strikes at a site of interest. Feasibility analysis and design of such EEWS require the assessment of the expected loss reduction due to the security action and set of the alarm threshold. In this paper a procedure to carry out these tasks in the performance‐based earthquake engineering probabilistic framework is proposed. A merely illustrative example refers to a simple structure assumed to be a classroom. Structural damage and non‐structural collapses are considered; the security action is to shelter occupants below the desks. The cost due to a false alarm is assumed to be related to the interruption of didactic activities. Results show how the comparison of the expected losses, for the alarm‐issuance and non‐issuance cases, allows setting the alarm threshold on a quantitative and consistent basis, and how it may be a tool for the design of engineering applications of EEW. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
Gaetano Manfredi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2001,30(4):485-499
In this paper, a method is proposed in order to obtain a simplified representation of hysteretic and input energy spectra. The method is based on the evaluation of the equivalent number of cycles correlated to the earthquake characteristics by the proposed seismic index ID. This procedure allows us to obtain peak values of the hysteretic and input energy that depend on the demanded ductility, on the seismic index ID and on the peak pseudo‐velocity. The assessment of the input energy represents a first step towards the definition of a damage potential index capable of taking into account the effect of the duration of the ground motions. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
Vincenzo Festa Giacomo Prosser Alfredo Caggianelli Antonietta Grande Antonio Langone Daniela Mele 《Geological Journal》2016,51(4):670-681
New microstructural data on the mylonites from the well‐exposed Palmi shear zone (southern Calabria) are presented with the aim to shed light on both the kinematics and the geometry of the southwestern branch of the Alpine belt during Eocene. In the study area, located between the Sardinia–Corsica block and the Calabria–Peloritani terrane, previous large‐scale geodynamic reconstructions suggest the presence of strike–slip or transform fault zones dissecting the southwestern branch of the Alpine belt. However, there are no field data supporting the occurrence of these structures. This paper uses vorticity analysis technique based on the aspect ratio and the long axis orientation of rigid porphyroclasts in mylonitic marbles and mylonitic granitoids, to estimate the contribution of pure and simple shear of deformation during the movement of the Palmi shear zone. Porphyroclasts aspect ratio and orientation were measured on thin sections using image analysis. Estimates of the vorticity number, Wm, indicate that the Palmi shear zone recorded general shear with a contribution of pure shear of c. 65%. Then, the Palmi shear zone can be interpreted as a segment of a left‐lateral transpressive bend along the southern termination of the Eocene Alpine front. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Federica Lucà Gabriele Buttafuoco Gaetano Robustelli Antonio Malafronte 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(9):3353-3367
Assessing spatial variability of soil thickness is a critical issue for understanding and predicting slope processes. The present work was aimed at estimating the spatial scales at which the variation of pyroclastic cover thickness occurs in a sample area in the Sorrento Peninsula (Italy). Stochastic simulation was used to understand the spatial variability of pyroclastic cover thickness on Mount Pendolo and to assess its spatial uncertainty. In the study area, covering about 0.7 km2, thickness measurements were collected using electrical resistivity tomography profiles, continuous core drillings and steel rod penetrometric tests. Variographic analysis revealed the occurrence of an anisotropic behaviour along the N50 and N140 directions. In the latter anisotropic direction, a nested variogram was fitted including (1) a long-range component which could be related to large-scale factors, like the curvature of the slope and contributing area and (2) a shorter scale variation which is probably associated with the occurrence of denudation processes or to the articulate cover/bedrock interface. To assess the spatial variability and uncertainty of pyroclastic cover thickness, a stochastic simulation algorithm was used and 500 equally probable images of cover thickness were yielded. The results showed that a better thickness distribution map can be drawn by simulating the data collected on the slope and at the footslope separately. The approach also allowed delineating the areas characterized by greater uncertainty, suggesting supplementary measurements to further improve the cover thickness distribution model, thus reducing the uncertainty. 相似文献
7.
Valentina?MontaldoEmail author Ezio?Faccioli Gaetano?Zonno Aybige?Akinci Luca?Malagnini 《Journal of Seismology》2005,9(3):295-316
In the framework of the 2004 reference seismic hazard map of Italy the amplitude of the strong-motion (expressed in terms
of Peak Horizontal Acceleration with 10% probability of non-exceedence in 50 years, referred to average hard ground conditions)
was computed using different predictive relationships. Equations derived in Italy and in Europe from strong-motion data, as
well as a set of weak and strong-motion based empirical predictive relationships were employed in a logic tree procedure,
in order to capture the epistemic uncertainty affecting ground-motion attenuation. This article describes the adjustments
and conversions required to eliminate the incompatibilities amongst the relations. Particularly significant are distance conversions
and style-of-faulting adjustments, as well as the problems related to the use of regional relations, such as the selection
of a reference depth, the quantification of random variability and the strong-motion prediction. Moreover, a regional attenuation
relationship specific for volcanic areas was also employed, allowing a more realistic evaluation of seismic hazard, as confirmed
by the attenuation of macroseismic intensities. 相似文献
8.
Modelling the transverse behaviour of circular tunnels in structured clayey soils during earthquakes
Acta Geotechnica - The paper presents novel results from advanced numerical simulations of the transverse behaviour of shallow circular tunnels in natural clays accounting for soil structure... 相似文献
9.
Gaetano Manfredi Andrea Prota Gerardo Mario Verderame Flavia De Luca Paolo Ricci 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):2275-2298
Data of the Italian National Institute of Statistics are collected aimed at characterizing Reinforced Concrete (RC) building stock of the area struck by the 2012 Emilia earthquake (number of storeys, age of construction, structural typology). Damage observations, collected right after the event in reconnaissance reports, are shown and analyzed emphasizing typical weaknesses of RC buildings in the area. The evolution of seismic classification for Emilia region and RC buildings’ main characteristics represent the input data for the assessment of non-structural damage of infilled RC buildings, through a simplified approach (FAST method), based on EMS-98 damage scale. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) capacities for the first three damage states of EMS-98 are compared with registered PGA in the epicentral area. Observed damage and damage states evaluated for the PGA of the event, in the epicentral area, are finally compared. The comparison led to a fair agreement between observed and numerical data. 相似文献
10.
Yves Moussallam Clive Oppenheimer Alessandro Aiuppa Gaetano Giudice Manuel Moussallam Philip Kyle 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(9):2109-2120
The continuous measurement of molecular hydrogen (H2) emissions from passively degassing volcanoes has recently been made possible using a new generation of low-cost electrochemical sensors. We have used such sensors to measure H2, along with SO2, H2O and CO2, in the gas and aerosol plume emitted from the phonolite lava lake at Erebus volcano, Antarctica. The measurements were made at the crater rim between December 2010 and January 2011. Combined with measurements of the long-term SO2 emission rate for Erebus, they indicate a characteristic H2 flux of 0.03?kg s–1 (2.8?Mg? day–1). The observed H2 content in the plume is consistent with previous estimates of redox conditions in the lava lake inferred from mineral compositions and the observed CO2/CO ratio in the gas plume (~0.9 log units below the quartz–fayalite–magnetite buffer). These measurements suggest that H2 does not combust at the surface of the lake, and that H2 is kinetically inert in the gas/aerosol plume, retaining the signature of the high-temperature chemical equilibrium reached in the lava lake. We also observe a cyclical variation in the H2/SO2 ratio with a period of ~10?min. These cycles correspond to oscillatory patterns of surface motion of the lava lake that have been interpreted as signs of a pulsatory magma supply at the top of the magmatic conduit. 相似文献