Tools for embracing uncertainty in the management of the cod fishery of NAFO divisions 2J+3KL     

Rice  Jake C.; Evans  Geoffrey T. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1988,45(1):73-81

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Fisheries Management Strategies: an introduction by the Conveners     

Rice  Jake C.; Connolly  Paul L. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):577-579

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Evaluating fishery impacts using metrics of community structure   总被引：8，自引：14，他引：8  

Rice  Jake C. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2000,57(3):682-688

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Honey, I cooled the cods: Modelling the effect of temperature on the structure of Boreal/Arctic fish ecosystems     

John G. Pope  Jannike Falk-Pedersen  Simon Jennings  Jake C. Rice  Henrik Gislason  Niels Daan   《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2009,56(21-22):2097

Historically colder regions of the North Atlantic had fisheries dominated by only a few fish species; principally cod and capelin. Possible population dynamic mechanisms that lead to such dominance are investigated by considering how a charmingly simple published multispecies model of the North Sea would react if the system operated at a lower temperature. The existing model equations were modified to describe temperature effects on growth, fecundity and recruitment and the model was rerun based on typical temperatures for the North Sea and a colder system. The results suggest that total fish biomass in the colder system increases but the community is more vulnerable to a given rate of fishing mortality. In the colder system, within species density dependence is reduced but relative predation rates are higher. Consequently, intermediate-sized species are vulnerable to relatively high levels of predation throughout their life history and tend to be excluded, leading to a system dominated by small and large species. The model helps to explain how temperature may govern coexistence and competitive exclusion in fish communities and accounts for the observed dominance of small and large species in Boreal/Arctic ecosystems.  相似文献   

On the precision and accuracy of IGS orbits   总被引：10，自引：6，他引：4  

Jake Griffiths  Jim R. Ray 《Journal of Geodesy》2009,83(3-4):277-287

In order to explore the precision and accuracy of International GNSS Service (IGS) orbits, we difference geocentric satellite positions midway between successive daily Final orbits for the period starting 5 November 2006, when the IGS switched its method of antenna calibration, through 31 December 2007. This yields a time series of orbit repeatabilities analogous to the classical geodetic test for position determinations. If we compare our average positional discontinuities to the official IGS accuracy codes, root-sum-squared (RSS) for each pair of days, we find the discontinuities are not well correlated with the predicted performance values. If instead the IGS weighted root-mean-square (WRMS) values from the Final combination long-arc analyses are taken as the measure of IGS accuracy, we find the position differences and long-arc values are correlated, but the long-arc values are exaggerated, particularly around eclipses, despite the fact that our day-boundary position differences apply to a single epoch each day and the long-arc analyses consider variations over a week. Our method is not well suited to probe the extent to which systematic effects dominate over random orbit errors, as indicated by satellite laser ranging residuals, but eclipsing satellites often display the most problematic behavior. A better metric than the current IGS orbit accuracy codes would probably be one based on the orbit discontinuities between successive days.  相似文献   

A proposal for a new position for the Aptian/Albian boundary     

Jake Hancock 《Cretaceous Research》2001,22(6):677

The Aptian/Albian boundary, as currently placed, presents problems which have not yet been solved and possibly never will be. No detailed definition of recent years can be applied on a world-wide scale, which will be needed for any definition acceptable to the Subcommission on Cretaceous Stratigraphy. The only satisfactory and workable solution is to choose a completely new position. It is suggested that this should be at the base of the Zone of Lyelliceras lyelli. This would change the start of the Albian from appproximately 112 Ma to 109 Ma but it would be a standard which should be recognizable on all five continents.  相似文献   

Excess europium content in precambrian sedimentary rocks and continental evolution     

Petr Jakeš  S.R Taylor 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1974,38(5):739-745

We propose that the europium excess in Precambrian sedimentary rocks, relative to those of younger age is derived from volcanic rocks of ancient island arcs, which were the source materials for the sediments. Precambrian sedimentary rocks and present-day volcanic rocks of island arcs have similar REE patterns, total REE abundances and excess Eu, relative to the North American shale composite. The present upper crustal REE pattern, as exemplified by that of sediments, is depleted in Eu, relative to chondrites. This depletion is considered to be a consequence of development of a grandioritic upper crust by partial melting in the lower crust, which selectively retains europium.  相似文献   

Detection and rapid recovery of the Sutter's Mill meteorite fall as a model for future recoveries worldwide     

Marc Fries  Lucille Le Corre  Mike Hankey  Jeff Fries  Robert Matson  Jake Schaefer  Vishnu Reddy 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(11):1989-1996

The Sutter's Mill C‐type meteorite fall occurred on 22 April 2012 in and around the town of Coloma, California. The exact location of the meteorite fall was determined within hours of the event using a combination of eyewitness reports, weather radar imagery, and seismometry data. Recovery of the first meteorites occurred within 2 days and continued for months afterward. The recovery effort included local citizens, scientists, and meteorite hunters, and featured coordination efforts by local scientific institutions. Scientific analysis of the collected meteorites revealed characteristics that were available for study only because the rapid collection of samples had minimized terrestrial contamination/alteration. This combination of factors—rapid and accurate location of the event, participation in the meteorite search by the public, and coordinated scientific investigation of recovered samples—is a model that was widely beneficial and should be emulated in future meteorite falls. The tools necessary to recreate the Sutter's Mill recovery are available, but are currently underutilized in much of the world. Weather radar networks, scientific institutions with interest in meteoritics, and the interested public are available globally. Therefore, it is possible to repeat the Sutter's Mill recovery model for future meteorite falls around the world, each for relatively little cost with a dedicated researcher. Doing so will significantly increase the number of fresh meteorite falls available for study, provide meteorite material that can serve as the nuclei of new meteorite collections, and will improve the public visibility of meteoritics research.  相似文献   

System dynamics modeling of transboundary systems: the bear river basin model   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Sehlke G  Jacobson J 《Ground water》2005,43(5):722-730

System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to evaluating the interrelationships of different components and activities within complex systems. Recently, system dynamics models have been developed in areas such as policy design, biological and medical modeling, energy and the environmental analysis, and in various other areas in the natural and social sciences. The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, a multipurpose national laboratory managed by the Department of Energy, has developed a system dynamics model in order to evaluate its utility for modeling large complex hydrological systems. We modeled the Bear River basin, a transboundary basin that includes portions of Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. We found that system dynamics modeling is very useful for integrating surface water and ground water data and for simulating the interactions between these sources within a given basin. In addition, we also found that system dynamics modeling is useful for integrating complex hydrologic data with other information (e.g., policy, regulatory, and management criteria) to produce a decision support system. Such decision support systems can allow managers and stakeholders to better visualize the key hydrologic elements and management constraints in the basin, which enables them to better understand the system via the simulation of multiple "what-if" scenarios. Although system dynamics models can be developed to conduct traditional hydraulic/hydrologic surface water or ground water modeling, we believe that their strength lies in their ability to quickly evaluate trends and cause-effect relationships in large-scale hydrological systems, for integrating disparate data, for incorporating output from traditional hydraulic/hydrologic models, and for integration of interdisciplinary data, information, and criteria to support better management decisions.  相似文献   

Escaping the climate policy uncertainty trap: options contracts for REDD+     

Alexander A. Golub  Sabine Fuss  Ruben Lubowski  Jake Hiller  Nikolay Khabarov  Nicolas Koch 《Climate Policy》2018,18(10):1227-1234

Climate policy uncertainty significantly hinders investments in low-carbon technologies, and the global community is behind schedule to curb carbon emissions. Strong actions will be necessary to limit the increase in global temperatures, and continued delays create risks of escalating climate change damages and future policy costs. These risks are system-wide, long-term and large-scale and thus hard to diversify across firms. Because of its unique scale, cost structure and near-term availability, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD+) has significant potential to help manage climate policy risks and facilitate the transition to lower greenhouse gas emissions. ‘Call’ options contracts in the form of the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits from jurisdictional REDD+ programmes at a predetermined price per ton of CO₂ could help unlock this potential despite the current lack of carbon markets that accept REDD+ for compliance. This approach could provide a globally important cost-containment mechanism and insurance for firms against higher future carbon prices, while channelling finance to avoid deforestation until policy uncertainties decline and carbon markets scale up.

Key policy insights

• Climate policy uncertainty discourages abatement investments, exposing firms to an escalating systemic risk of future rapid increases in emission control expenditures.

• This situation poses a risk of an abatement ‘short squeeze,’ paralleling the case in financial markets when prices jump sharply as investors rush to square accounts on an investment they have sold ‘short’, one they have bet against and promised to repay later in anticipation of falling prices.

• There is likely to be a willingness to pay for mechanisms that hedge the risks of abruptly rising carbon prices, in particular for ‘call’ options, the right but not the obligation to buy high-quality emissions reduction credits at a predetermined price, due to the significantly lower upfront capital expenditure compared to other hedging alternatives.

• Establishing rules as soon as possible for compliance market acceptance of high-quality emissions reductions credits from REDD+ would facilitate REDD+ transactions, including via options-based contracts, which could help fill the gap of uncertain climate policies in the short and medium term.

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