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1.
Shilpa Rao Shonali Pachauri Frank Dentener Patrick Kinney Zbigniew Klimont Keywan Riahi Wolfgang Schoepp 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1122-1130
Air pollution and its related health impacts are a global concern. This paper addresses how current policies on air pollution, climate change and access to clean cooking fuels can effectively reduce both outdoor and household air pollution and improve human health. A state of the art modeling framework is used that combines an integrated assessment model and an atmospheric model to estimate the spatial extent and distribution of outdoor air pollution exposures. Estimates of household energy access and use are modeled by accounting for heterogeneous household energy choices and affordability constraints for rural and urban populations spanning the entire income distribution. Results are presented for 2030 for a set of policy scenarios on air pollution, climate change and energy access and include spatially explicit emissions of air pollutants; ambient concentrations of PM2.5; and health impacts in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) from both ambient and household air pollution. The results stress the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation in addressing the impacts of outdoor air pollution. A combination of stringent policies on outdoor air pollution, climate change and access to clean cooking fuels is found to be effective in achieving reductions in average ambient PM2.5 exposures to below World Health Organization recommended levels for a majority of the world's population and results in a significant decline in the global burden of disease from both outdoor and household air pollution. 相似文献
2.
Summary of results from a high - resolution pan - Arctic ice - ocean model are presented for the northern North Pacific, Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas. The main focus is on the mean circulation, communication from the Gulf of Alaska across the Bering Sea into the western Arctic Ocean and on mesoscale eddy activity within several important ecosystems. Model results from 1979 -2004 are compared to observations whenever possible. The high spatial model resolution at 1/12o （or -9 - km） in the horizontal and 45 levels in the vertical direction allows for representation of eddies with diameters as small as 36 km. However, we believe that upcoming new model integrations at even higher resolution will allow us to resolve even smaller eddies. This is especially important at the highest latitudes where the Rossby radius of deformation is as small as 10 km or less. 相似文献
3.
Barry H. Lynn Cynthia Rosenzweig Richard Goldberg David Rind Christian Hogrefe Len Druyan Richard Healy Jimy Dudhia Joyce Rosenthal Patrick Kinney 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):567-587
The Mesoscale Modeling System Version 5 (MM5) was one-way nested to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM), which provided the boundary conditions for present (1990s) and future (IPCC SRES A2 scenario, 2050s) five-summer “time-slice” simulations over the continental and eastern United States. Five configurations for planetary boundary layer, cumulus parameterization, and radiation scheme were tested, and one set was selected for use in the New York City Climate and Health Project—a multi-disciplinary study investigating the effects of climate change and land-use change on human health in the New York metropolitan region. Although hourly and daily data were used in the health project, in this paper we focus on long-term current and projected mean climate change. The GISS-MM5 was very sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and planetary boundary layer scheme, leading to significantly different temperature and precipitation outcomes for the 1990s. These differences can be linked to precipitation type (convective vs. non-convective), to their effect on solar radiation received at the ground, and ultimately to surface temperature. The projected changes in climate (2050s minus 1990s) were not as sensitive to choice of model physics combination. The range of the projected surface temperature changes at a given grid point among the model versions was much less than the mean change for all five model configurations, indicating relative consensus for simulating surface temperature changes among the different model projections. The MM5 versions, however, offer less consensus regarding 1990s to 2050s changes in precipitation amounts. All of the projected 2050s temperature changes were found to be significant at the 95th percent confidence interval, while the majority of the precipitation changes were not. 相似文献
4.
We propose a new class of inflationary models in which the scalar field potential governing inflation is generated by the same nonperturbative gauge dynamics that may lead to supersymmetry breaking. Such models satisfy constraints from cosmic microwave background measurements for natural values of the fundamental parameters in the theory. In addition, they have two particularly interesting characteristics: a “blue” spectrum of scalar perturbations, and an upper bound on the total amount of inflation possible. 相似文献
5.
Nitrogen inputs restructure ecosystems and can interact with other agents of ecological change and potentially intensify them.
To examine the effects of nitrogen combined with those of elevation and competition, in 2005 we mapped vegetation and elevation
within experimental plots that have been fertilized since 1970 in Great Sippewissett salt marsh, Cape Cod, MA, USA and compared
the resulting effects on marsh vegetation. Decadal-scale chronic nutrient enrichment forced changes in cover and spatial distribution
of different species. With increasing enrichment, there was a shift in species cover primarily involving loss of Spartina alterniflora and an increase in Distichlis spicata. Percent cover of near monocultures increased with nitrogen fertilization, owing mainly to the proliferation of D. spicata. The experimental fertilization prompted a shift from the short form of S. alterniflora to taller forms, hence increasing above-ground biomass, where this species managed to remain. Chronic enrichment increased
upper and lower limits of the elevation range within which certain species occurred. The shift to increased cover of D. spicata was also associated with faster accretion of the marsh surface where this species was dominant, but not where S. alterniflora was dominant. Interactions among nutrient supply, elevation, and competition altered the direction of competitive success
among different species of marsh plants, and forced changes in the spatial distribution and composition of the salt marsh
plant communities. The results imply that there will be parallel changes in New England salt marshes owing to the widespread
eutrophication of coastal waters and the increasing sea level rise. Knowing the mechanisms structuring marsh vegetative cover,
and their role in modification of salt marsh accretion, may provide background with which to manage maintenance of affected
coastal wetlands. 相似文献
6.
Dendrogeomorphological assessment of movement at Hilda rock glacier, Banff National Park, Canadian Rocky Mountains 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Taylor Bachrach Kaj Jakobsen Jacquie Kinney Peter Nishimura Alberto Reyes Colin P. Laroque Dan J. Smith 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2004,86(1):1-9
Abstract The results of this dendrogeomorphological study provide evidence of the active movement of Hilda rock glacier, a tongue‐shaped rock glacier in the Columbia Icefield region of Banff National Park. Cross‐sectional samples were cut from 44 detrital subalpine fir (Abies Iasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt.) and Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry) boles killed and buried by debris spilling off the steep distal slope of the rock glacier. The samples were crossdated using locally and regionally developed tree‐ring chronologies, and were shown to have been killed between 1576 and 1999. Our results show that Hilda rock glacier has advanced at an average rate of 1.6 cm/year since the late 1790s, with limited evidence of similar rates of activity extending back to the mid‐1570s. This rock glacier activity is believed to be linked to persistent periglacial processes that appear to be independent of the climatic forcing mechanisms known to influence glacier mass balances over the same interval. 相似文献
7.
Michael Steinberg Matthew Taylor Kealohanuiopuna Kinney 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(3):403-411
This article combines approaches to better understand both forest cover changes and attitudes toward environmental conservation in the El Cielo Biosphere Reserve in northeastern Mexico. Satellite images are used to document the extent and response of forest cover in the reserve before and after its designation as a biosphere reserve. Ethnographic interviews are also employed to examine the attitudes of local people toward the costs and benefits of the biosphere reserve in their lives. Our research found that unlike many “paper parks,” large-scale deforestation has stopped and forest cover has expanded after the biosphere reserve was created. Our research also found that local people value both tangible and intangible benefits created by the biosphere reserve. 相似文献
8.
William H. Kinney 《New Astronomy Reviews》2003,47(11-12):967
Recent theoretical results indicate that the detection of primordial gravity waves from inflation may be a hopeless task. First, foregrounds from lensing put a strict lower limit on the detectability of the B-mode polarization signal in the cosmic microwave background, the “smoking gun” for tensor (gravity wave) fluctuations. Meanwhile, widely accepted theoretical arguments indicate that the amplitude of gravity waves produced in inflation will be below this limit. I argue that failure is not inevitable, and that the effort to detect the primordial signal in the B-mode, whether it succeeds or fails, will yield crucial information about the nature of inflation. 相似文献
9.
Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
Michelle L. Bell Richard Goldberg Christian Hogrefe Patrick L. Kinney Kim Knowlton Barry Lynn Joyce Rosenthal Cynthia Rosenzweig Jonathan A. Patz 《Climatic change》2007,82(1-2):61-76
We investigated how climate change could affect ambient ozone concentrations and the subsequent human health impacts. Hourly
concentrations were estimated for 50 eastern US cities for five representative summers each in the 1990s and 2050s, reflecting
current and projected future climates, respectively. Estimates of future concentrations were based on the IPCC A2 scenario
using global climate, regional climate, and regional air quality models. This work does not explore the effects of future
changes in anthropogenic emissions, but isolates the impact of altered climate on ozone and health. The cities’ ozone levels
are estimated to increase under predicted future climatic conditions, with the largest increases in cities with present-day
high pollution. On average across the 50 cities, the summertime daily 1-h maximum increased 4.8 ppb, with the largest increase
at 9.6 ppb. The average number of days/summer exceeding the 8-h regulatory standard increased 68%. Elevated ozone levels correspond
to approximately a 0.11% to 0.27% increase in daily total mortality. While actual future ozone concentrations depend on climate
and other influences such as changes in emissions of anthropogenic precursors, the results presented here indicate that with
other factors constant, climate change could detrimentally affect air quality and thereby harm human health. 相似文献
10.
Kristen Weiss Mark Hamann Michael Kinney Helene Marsh 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(1):178-188
Few case studies have considered the impact of network structure on the resilience of complex resource management systems that operate over large spatial scales. To help fill this knowledge gap our study examined two types of relational ties—knowledge exchange and policy influence—within a marine wildlife co-management network in Northern Australia. We conducted interviews and follow-up surveys with key-informant stakeholders in dugong and marine turtle management and used these data to perform social network analysis for the dugong and turtle co-management network. The network structure of this marine governance system supports extensive cross-scale information flow, but with a disproportionate amount of top-down policy influence compared with knowledge accumulation, an arrangement that may hinder evidence-based decision making. We developed a typological ‘map’ of stakeholder roles in the network to characterize each stakeholder's contribution of knowledge and ability to influence policy, helping to identify gaps or overlaps in network linkages. Improving communication links between knowledge producers and policy makers is important for evidence based decision making throughout the management network, while addressing overlapping management roles and functions should help decrease conflict in the system. These improvements would increase social-ecological resilience in the management network by providing better protection for marine species while meeting the needs of diverse stakeholders. 相似文献