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Barry H. Lynn Cynthia Rosenzweig Richard Goldberg David Rind Christian Hogrefe Len Druyan Richard Healy Jimy Dudhia Joyce Rosenthal Patrick Kinney 《Climatic change》2010,99(3-4):567-587
The Mesoscale Modeling System Version 5 (MM5) was one-way nested to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM), which provided the boundary conditions for present (1990s) and future (IPCC SRES A2 scenario, 2050s) five-summer “time-slice” simulations over the continental and eastern United States. Five configurations for planetary boundary layer, cumulus parameterization, and radiation scheme were tested, and one set was selected for use in the New York City Climate and Health Project—a multi-disciplinary study investigating the effects of climate change and land-use change on human health in the New York metropolitan region. Although hourly and daily data were used in the health project, in this paper we focus on long-term current and projected mean climate change. The GISS-MM5 was very sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization and planetary boundary layer scheme, leading to significantly different temperature and precipitation outcomes for the 1990s. These differences can be linked to precipitation type (convective vs. non-convective), to their effect on solar radiation received at the ground, and ultimately to surface temperature. The projected changes in climate (2050s minus 1990s) were not as sensitive to choice of model physics combination. The range of the projected surface temperature changes at a given grid point among the model versions was much less than the mean change for all five model configurations, indicating relative consensus for simulating surface temperature changes among the different model projections. The MM5 versions, however, offer less consensus regarding 1990s to 2050s changes in precipitation amounts. All of the projected 2050s temperature changes were found to be significant at the 95th percent confidence interval, while the majority of the precipitation changes were not. 相似文献
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Changhai Liu Jimy Dudhia Mitchell W. Moncrieff 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2010,107(1-2):9-15
This paper presents a case study of the impact of land surface treatment on warm season precipitation simulations at convection-permitting grid resolution. Two surface schemes are tested: Dudhia’s five-layer soil model (FLSM) and the Noah land-surface model (NLSM). The experimentation case involves a 1-week episode of active summertime convection over the central United States. The overall precipitation features, such as the diurnal regeneration of zonally propagating rainfall episodes and the spatial distribution of accumulative rainfall, are adequately replicated by the two parameterizations. In comparison, NLSM produces roughly 12% more and broader rainfall than FLSM. This differential rainfall amount is consistent with the differential surface moisture fluxes between the two schemes, whereas the precipitation feedback plays a negligible role. It is also found that FLSM generates comparatively stronger sensible heat transports from the land surface and thus a warmer temperature near the surface. 相似文献
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Anil Kumar James Done Jimy Dudhia Dev Niyogi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2011,114(3-4):123-137
The predictability of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal was explored in terms of track and intensity using the Advanced Research Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (AHW) model. This constitutes the first application of the AHW over an area that lies outside the region of the North Atlantic for which this model was developed and tested. Several experiments were conducted to understand the possible contributing factors that affected Sidr??s intensity and track simulation by varying the initial start time and domain size. Results show that Sidr??s track was strongly controlled by the synoptic flow at the 500-hPa level, seen especially due to the strong mid-latitude westerly over north-central India. A 96-h forecast produced westerly winds over north-central India at the 500-hPa level that were notably weaker; this likely caused the modeled cyclone track to drift from the observed actual track. Reducing the model domain size reduced model error in the synoptic-scale winds at 500?hPa and produced an improved cyclone track. Specifically, the cyclone track appeared to be sensitive to the upstream synoptic flow, and was, therefore, sensitive to the location of the western boundary of the domain. However, cyclone intensity remained largely unaffected by this synoptic wind error at the 500-hPa level. Comparison of the high resolution, moving nested domain with a single coarser resolution domain showed little difference in tracks, but resulted in significantly different intensities. Experiments on the domain size with regard to the total precipitation simulated by the model showed that precipitation patterns and 10-m surface winds were also different. This was mainly due to the mid-latitude westerly flow across the west side of the model domain. The analysis also suggested that the total precipitation pattern and track was unchanged when the domain was extended toward the east, north, and south. Furthermore, this highlights our conclusion that Sidr was influenced from the west side of the domain. The displacement error was significantly reduced after the domain size from the western model boundary was decreased. Study results demonstrate the capability and need of a high-resolution mesoscale modeling framework for simulating the complex interactions that contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region. 相似文献
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T. T. Warner Y. -H. Kuo J. D. Doyle J. Dudhia J. Dudhia D. R. Stauffer N. L. Seaman 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1992,49(1-4):209-227
Summary The Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model is a widely used research tool that has been applied in a wide variety of real-data, mesoalpha-scale applications. Recently a nonhydrostatic version of this model has been developed by Dudhia (1993). It is the purpose of this paper to illustrate the capabilities of this modeling system by describing four examples of mesobeta-scale simulations: two of the cases involve maritime processes and two deal with continental weather events. All utilize fully three-dimensional sets of initial conditions that are based on real data, both standard data and from special measurements programs. One case employs the model in a data-assimilation configuration, wherein Newtonian relaxation terms are used in the equations to assimilate data from a variety of platforms. This example of nonhydrostatic four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) is performed for the purpose of generating a dynamically consistent four-dimensional data-set, however the same procedure can be used for model initialization. The first case, described in section 2, involves the simulation of a coastal front that forms offshore near the western edge of the Gulf Stream. In the second case, described in section 3, the model is used in the FDDA mode to define the mesobeta-scale windfield over the complex terrain of the region around Grand Canyon, Arizona. In sections 4 and 5 will be described the mesobeta-scale structure of cold fronts, one within a marine cyclone, and another near the Rocky Mountains.With 21 FiguresNCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. 相似文献
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D. J. Frame B. N. Lawrence G. J. Fraser R. A. Vincent A. Dudhia 《Annales Geophysicae》2000,18(4):478-484
A new method for evaluating momentum balance in the mesosphere using radar and satellite data is presented. This method is applied to radar wind data from two medium frequency installations (near Adelaide, Australia and Christchurch, New Zealand) and satellite temperature data from the Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (ISAMS). Because of limitations in data availability and vertical extent, the technique can only be applied to evaluate the momentum balance at 80 km above the radar sites for May 1992. The technique allows the calculation of the residual terms in the momentum balance which are usually attributed to the effects of breaking gravity waves. Although the results are inconclusive above Adelaide, this method produces values of zonal and meridional residual accelerations above Christchurch which are consistent with expectation. In both locations it is apparent that geostrophic balance is a poor approximation of reality. (This result is not dependent on a mismatch between the radar and satellite derived winds, but rather is inherent in the satellite data alone.) Despite significant caveats about data quality the technique appears robust and could be of use with data from future instruments. 相似文献
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Jimy Dudhia 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2014,50(1):121-131
The development of atmospheric mesoscale models from their early origins in the 1970’s until the present day is described. Evolution has occurred in dynamical and physics representations in these models. The dynamics has had to change from hydrostatic to fully nonhydrostatic equations to handle the finer scales that have become possible in the last few decades with advancing computer power, which has enabled real-time forecasting to go to finer grid sizes. Meanwhile the physics has also become more sophisticated than the initial representations of the major processes associated with the surface, boundary layer, radiation, clouds and convection. As resolutions have become finer, mesoscale models have had to change paradigms associated with assumptions related to what is considered sub-grid scale needing parameterization, and what is resolved well enough to be explicitly handled by the dynamics. This first occurred with cumulus parameterization as real-time forecast models became able to represent individual updrafts, and is now starting to occur in the boundary layer as future forecast models may be able resolve individual thermals. Beyond that, scientific research has provided a greater understanding of detailed microphysical and land-surface processes that are important to aspects of weather prediction, and these parameterizations have been developing complexity at a steady rate. This paper can just give a perspective of these developments in the broad field of research associated with mesoscale atmospheric model development. 相似文献
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Pedro A. Jiménez J. Fidel González-Rouco Juan P. Montávez E. García-Bustamante J. Navarro J. Dudhia 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(7-8):1643-1656
This work uses a WRF numerical simulation from 1960 to 2005 performed at a high horizontal resolution (2 km) to analyze the surface wind variability over a complex terrain region located in northern Iberia. A shorter slice of this simulation has been used in a previous study to demonstrate the ability of the WRF model in reproducing the observed wind variability during the period 1992–2005. Learning from that validation exercise, the extended simulation is herein used to inspect the wind behavior where and when observations are not available and to determine the main synoptic mechanisms responsible for the surface wind variability. A principal component analysis was applied to the daily mean wind. Two principal modes of variation accumulate a large percentage of the wind variability (83.7%). The first mode reflects the channeling of the flow between the large mountain systems in northern Iberia modulated by the smaller topographic features of the region. The second mode further contributes to stress the differentiated wind behavior over the mountains and valleys. Both modes show significant contributions at the higher frequencies during the whole analyzed period, with different contributions at lower frequencies during the different decades. A strong relationship was found between these two modes and the zonal and meridional large scale pressure gradients over the area. This relationship is described in the context of the influence of standard circulation modes relevant in the European region like the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic pattern, East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern, and the Scandinavian pattern. 相似文献