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1.
Haydon P. Mort Thierry Adatte Gerta Keller David Bartels Karl B. Fllmi Philipp Steinmann Zsolt Berner E.H. Chellai 《Cretaceous Research》2008,29(5-6):1008
With a multi-proxy approach, an attempt was made to constrain productivity and bottom-water redox conditions and their effects on the phosphorus accumulation rate at the Mohammed Plage section on the Tarfaya coast, Morocco, during the Cenomanian-Turonian Anoxic Event (OAE 2). A distinct δ13Corg isotope excursion of +2.5‰ occurs close to the top of the section. The unusually abrupt shift of the isotope excursion and disappearance of several planktonic foraminiferal species (e.g. Rotalipora cushmani and Rotalipora greenhornensis) in this level suggests a hiatus of between 40–60 kyrs at the excursion onset. Nevertheless, it was possible to determine both the long-term environmental history as well as the processes that took place immediately prior to and during OAE 2. TOC% values increase gradually from the base of the section to the top (from 2.5% to 10%). This is interpreted as the consequence of a long-term eustatic sea-level rise and subsidence causing the encroachment of less oxic waters into the Tarfaya Basin. Similarly a reduction in the mineralogically constructed ‘detrital index’ can be explained by the decrease in the continental flux of terrigenous material due to a relative sea-level rise. A speciation of phosphorus in the upper part of the section, which spans the start and mid-stages of OAE 2, shows overall higher abundances of Preactive mass accumulation rates before the isotope excursion onset and lower values during the plateau. Due to the probable short hiatus, the onset of the decrease in phosphorus content relative to the isotope excursion is uncertain, although the excursion plateau already contains lower concentrations. The Corg/Ptotal and V/Al ratios suggest that this reduction was mostly likely caused by a decrease in the available bottom oxygen content (probably as a result of higher productivity) and a corresponding fall in the phosphorus retention ability of the sediment. Productivity appears to have remained high during the isotope plateau possibly due to a combination of ocean-surface fertilisation via increased aridity (increased K/Al and Ti/Al ratios) and/or higher dissolved inorganic phosphorus content in the water column as a result of the decrease in sediment P retention. The evidence for decreased P-burial has been observed in many other palaeoenvironments during OAE 2. Tarfaya's unique upwelling paleosituation provides strong evidence that the nutrient recycling was a global phenomenon and therefore a critical factor in starting and sustaining OAE 2. 相似文献
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Jeffery R. Scott Andrei P. Sokolov Peter H. Stone Mort D. Webster 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(5):441-454
The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using
a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3-D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO2 forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model’s climate sensitivity. In this model, the cessation
of deep sinking in the north “Atlantic” (hereinafter, a “collapse”), as indicated by changes in the MOC, behaves like a simple
bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change, which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing
and the climate sensitivity, determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function
of the forcing increase, with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly, high CO2-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization, whereas
low CO2-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine
how the rate of forcing, for a given CO2 stabilization, affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models,
we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios, the forcing rate has little
impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range, however, forcing increases on a time scale of slow
ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise
collapse. 相似文献
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We present methods developed for the small-sizedDaphnia species,D. galeata, D. hyalina, D. cucullata, and their hybrids, which facilitate the use of DNA variation in population studies. Described are large-scale production of material from single genotypes ofDaphnia and subsequent extraction of total DNA. The average DNA yields ranged between 6 µg per gram wet weight (D. cucullata) and 12 µg per gram wet weight (D. galeata). For comparison, the large-sized speciesD. pulex was tested and yielded an average of 28 µg DNA per gram wet weight. The DNA isolated in this manner lends itself well to molecular genetic techniques suited for population studies.Reprint requests to B. Streit. 相似文献
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Effective climate policy will consist of mitigation and adaptation implemented simultaneously in a policy portfolio to reduce the risks of climate change. Previous studies of the tradeoffs between mitigation and adaptation have implicitly framed the problem deterministically, choosing the optimal paths for all time. Because climate change is a long-term problem with significant uncertainties and opportunities to learn and revise, critical tradeoffs between mitigation and adaptation in the near-term have not been considered. We propose a new framework for considering the portfolio of mitigation and adaptation that explicitly treats the problem as a multi-stage decision under uncertainty. In this context, there are additional benefits to near-term investments if they reduce uncertainty and lead to improved future decisions. Two particular features are fundamental to understanding the relevant tradeoffs between mitigation and adaptation: (1) strategy dynamics over time in reducing climate damages, and (2) strategy dynamics under uncertainty and potential for learning. Our framework strengthens the argument for disaggregating adaption as has been proposed by others. We present three stylized classes of adaptation investment types as a conceptual framework: short-lived “flow” spending, committed “stock” investment, and lower capacity “option” stock with the capability of future upgrading. In the context of sequential decision under uncertainty, these subtypes of adaptation have important tradeoffs among them and with mitigation. We argue that given the large policy uncertainty that we face currently, explicitly considering adaptation “option” investments is a valuable component of a near-term policy response that can balance between the flexible flow and committed stock approaches, as it allows for the delay of costly stock investments while at the same time allowing for lower-cost risk management of future damages. 相似文献
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Climate change is an issue of risk management. The most important causes for concern are not the median projections of future climate change, but the low-probability, high-consequence impacts. Because the policy question is one of sequential decision making under uncertainty, we need not decide today what to do in the future. We need only to decide what to do today, and future decisions can be revised as we learn more. In this study, we use a stochastic version of the DICE-99 model (Nordhaus WD, Boyer J (2000) Warming the world: economic models of global warming. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, USA) to explore the effect of different rates of learning on the appropriate level of near-term policy. We show that the effect of learning depends strongly on whether one chooses efficiency (balancing costs and benefits) or cost-effectiveness (stabilizing at a given temperature change target) as the criterion for policy design. Then, we model endogenous learning by calculating posterior distributions of climate sensitivity from Bayesian updating, based on temperature changes that would be observed for a given true climate sensitivity and assumptions about errors, prior distributions, and the presence of additional uncertainties. We show that reducing uncertainty in climate uncertainty takes longer when there is also uncertainty in the rate of heat uptake by the ocean, unless additional observations are used, such as sea level rise. 相似文献
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Mort Webster 《Climatic change》2009,92(1-2):37-40
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Phosphorus recycling and burial in Baltic Sea sediments with contrasting redox conditions 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
In this study, redox-dependent phosphorus (P) recycling and burial at 6 sites in the Baltic Sea is investigated using a combination of porewater and sediment analyses and sediment age dating (210Pb and 137Cs). We focus on sites in the Kattegat, Danish Straits and Baltic Proper where present-day bottom water redox conditions range from fully oxygenated and seasonally hypoxic to almost permanently anoxic and sulfidic. Strong surface enrichments of Fe-oxide bound P are observed at oxic and seasonally hypoxic sites but not in the anoxic basins. Reductive dissolution of Fe-oxides and release of the associated P supports higher sediment-water exchange of PO4 at hypoxic sites (up to ∼800 μmol P m−2 d−1) than in the anoxic basins. This confirms that Fe-bound P in surface sediments in the Baltic acts as a major internal source of P during seasonal hypoxia, as suggested previously from water column studies. Most burial of P takes place as organic P. We find no evidence for significant authigenic Ca-P formation or biogenic Ca-P burial. The lack of major inorganic P burial sinks makes the Baltic Sea very sensitive to the feedback loop between increased hypoxia, enhanced regeneration of P and increased primary productivity. Historical records of bottom water oxygen at two sites (Bornholm, Northern Gotland) show a decline over the past century and are accompanied by a rise in values for typical sediment proxies for anoxia (total sulfur, molybdenum and organic C/P ratios). While sediment reactive P concentrations in anoxic basins are equal to or higher than at oxic sites, burial rates of P at hypoxic and anoxic sites are up to 20 times lower because of lower sedimentation rates. Nevertheless, burial of reactive P in both hypoxic and anoxic areas is significant because of their large surface area and should be accounted for in budgets and models for the Baltic Sea. 相似文献
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An effective policy response to climate change will include, among other things, investments in lowering greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), as well as short-term temporary (flow) and long-lived capital-intensive (stock) adaptation to climate change. A critical near-term question is how investments in reducing climate damages should be allocated across these elements of a climate policy portfolio, especially in the face of uncertainty in both future climate damages and also the effectiveness of yet-untested adaptation efforts. We build on recent efforts in DICE-based integrated assessment modeling approaches that include two types of adaptation—short-lived flow spending and long-lived depreciable adaptation stock investments—along with mitigation, and we identify and explore the uncertainties that impact the relative proportions of policies within a response portfolio. We demonstrate that the relative ratio of flow adaptation, stock adaptation, and mitigation depend critically on interactions among: 1) the relative effectiveness in the baseline of stock versus flow adaptation, 2) the degree of substitutability between stock and flow adaptation types, and 3) whether there exist physical limits on the amount of damages that can be reduced by flow-type adaptation investments. The results indicate where more empirical research on adaptation could focus to best inform near-term policy decisions, and provide a first step towards considering near-term policies that are flexible in the face of uncertainty. 相似文献