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1.
Infrastructure owners and operators, or governmental agencies, need rapid screening tools to prioritize detailed risk assessment and retrofit resources allocation. This paper provides one such tool, for use by highway administrations, based on Bayesian belief network (BBN) and aimed at replacing so‐called generic or typological seismic fragility functions for reinforced concrete girder bridges. Resources for detailed assessments should be allocated to bridges with highest consequence of damage, for which site hazard, bridge fragility, and traffic data are needed. The proposed BBN based model is used to quantify seismic fragility of bridges based on data that can be obtained by visual inspection and engineering drawings. Results show that the predicted fragilities are of sufficient accuracy for establishing relative ranking and prioritizing. While the actual data and seismic hazard employed to train the network (establishing conditional probability tables) refer to the Italian bridge stock, the network structure and engineering judgment can easily be adopted for bridges in different geographical locations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
Upgrading noncode conforming buildings to mitigate seismic induced damages is important in moderate to high seismic hazard regions. The damage, can be mitigated by using conventional (e.g. FRP wrapping) and emerging (e.g. smart structures) retrofit techniques. A model for the structure to be retrofitted should include relevant performance indicators. This paper proposes a variable stiffness smart structure device known as the Smart Spring to be integrated on building structures to mitigate seismic induced damage. The variable stiffness capability is of importance to structures that exhibit vertical (e.g. soft storey) irregularities and to meet different performance levels under seismic excitation. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed retrofitting technique, a four‐storey steel building is modelled in MATLAB and appropriate performance indicators are chosen. Various return period seismic hazards are generated from past earthquake event records to predict the structure's performance. The performance improvement because of the retrofitting of building structures using the variable stiffness device is presented. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
Rehan Sadiq Solomon Tesfamariam 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(4):495-505
Environmental indices (EI) constitute a common communication tool that is often used to describe the overall status of environmental
systems (air, water and soil). EI development entails the use of mathematical operators to aggregate various non-commensurate
input parameters in a logical manner. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator is a general mean type operator that provides
flexibility in the aggregation process such that the aggregated value is bounded between minimum and maximum values of the
input parameters. This flexibility of the OWA operator is realized through the concept of orness, which is a surrogate for
decision maker’s attitude. The type of input parameters also affects the choice of aggregation operators. If the input parameters
are linguistic or fuzzy, the aggregation through OWA operators is not possible, and the use of fuzzy arithmetic is warranted.
The concept of fuzzy number OWA (FN-OWA) operators is explored to handle situations in which one or more input parameter has
fuzzy (or linguistic) values. The proposed approach is demonstrated using data provided in an earlier study by Swamee and
Tyagi (ASCE J Environ Eng 126(5):451–455, 2000) for establishing water quality indices. Multiple hypothetical scenarios are also generated to highlight the utility and
sensitivity of the proposed approach. 相似文献
4.
Environmental decision-making under uncertainty using intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IF-AHP) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Rehan Sadiq Solomon Tesfamariam 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(1):75-91
Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a utility theory based decision-making technique, which works on a premise that the decision-making
of complex problems can be handled by structuring them into simple and comprehensible hierarchical structures. However, AHP
involves human subjective evaluation, which introduces vagueness that necessitates the use of decision-making under uncertainty. The vagueness is commonly handled through fuzzy sets theory, by assigning degree of membership. But, the environmental decision-making
problem becomes more involved if there is an uncertainty in assigning the membership function (or degree of belief) to fuzzy pairwise comparisons, which is referred to as ambiguity (non-specificity). In this paper, the concept of intuitionistic fuzzy set is applied to AHP, called IF-AHP to handle both vagueness and ambiguity
related uncertainties in the environmental decision-making process. The proposed IF-AHP methodology is demonstrated with an
illustrative example to select best drilling fluid (mud) for drilling operations under multiple environmental criteria. 相似文献
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6.
Loss estimation for non‐ductile reinforced concrete building in Victoria,British Columbia,Canada: effects of mega‐thrust Mw9‐class subduction earthquakes and aftershocks 
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下载免费PDF全文 This paper presents, within the performance‐based earthquake engineering framework, a comprehensive probabilistic seismic loss estimation method that accounts for main sources of uncertainty related to hazard, vulnerability, and loss. The loss assessment rigorously integrates multiple engineering demand parameters (maximum and residual inter‐story drift ratio and peak floor acceleration) with consideration of mainshock–aftershock sequences. A 4‐story non‐ductile reinforced concrete building located in Victoria, British Colombia, Canada, is considered as a case study. For 100 mainshock and mainshock–aftershock earthquake records, incremental dynamic analysis is performed, and the three engineering demand parameters are fitted with a probability distribution and corresponding dependence computed. Finally, with consideration of different demolition limit states, loss assessment is performed. From the results, it can be shown that when seismic vulnerability models are integrated with seismic hazard, the aftershock effects are relatively minor in terms of overall seismic loss (1–4% increase). Moreover, demolition limit state parameters, uncertainties of collapse fragility, and non‐collapse seismic demand prediction models have showed significant contribution to the loss assessment. The seismic loss curves for the reference case and for cases with the varied parameters can differ by as large as about 150%. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
Omolola?M.?AdisaEmail author Christina?M.?Botai Joel?O.?Botai Abubeker?Hassen Daniel?Darkey Eyob?Tesfamariam Alex?F.?Adisa Abiodun?M.?Adeola Katlego?P.?Ncongwane 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,134(3-4):991-1004
This study analyzed the variability of the agro-climatic parameters that impact maize production across different seasons in South Africa. To achieve this, four agro-climatic variables (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, minimum, and maximum temperatures) were considered for the period spanning 1986–2015, covering the North West, Free State, Mpumalanga, and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) provinces. Results illustrate that there is a negative trend in precipitation for North West and Free State provinces and positive trend in maximum temperature for all the provinces over the study period. Furthermore, the results showed that among other agro-climatic parameters, minimum temperature had the most influence on maize production in North West, potential evapotranspiration (combination of the agro-climatic parameters), minimum and maximum temperature influenced maize production in KZN while maximum temperature influenced maize production in Mpumalanga and Free State. In general, the agro-climatic parameters were found to contribute 7.79, 21.85, 32.52, and 44.39% to variation in maize production during the study period in North West, Free State, Mpumalanga, and KZN, respectively. The variation in maize production among the provinces under investigation could most likely attribute to the variation in the size of the cultivated land among other factors including soil type and land tenure system. There were also difference in yield per hectare between the provinces; KZN and Mpumalanga being located in the humid subtropical areas of South Africa had the highest yield per hectare 5.61 and 4.99 tons, respectively, while Free State and North West which are in the semi-arid region had the lowest yield per hectare 3.86 and 3.03 tons, respectively. Understanding the nature and interaction of the dominant agro-climatic parameters discussed in the present study as well as their impact on maize production will help farmers and agricultural policy makers to understand how climate change exerts its influence on maize production within the study area so as to better adapt to the major climate element that either increases or decreases maize production in their respective provinces. 相似文献
8.
Zbelo Tesfamariam Jan Nyssen Tesfaalem Ghebreyohannes Kelemework Tafere Amanuel Zenebe Jean Poesen Seppe Deckers Veerle Van Eetvelde 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2019,40(3):476-495
Transhumance between the Afar lowlands and Tigray escarpments has been a common practice in northern Ethiopia. However, the impact of transhumance on landscape changes in the marginal grabens has not been significantly researched. Hence, this study aims to understand the process of transhumance and the linkages between social and biophysical aspects of the graben landscapes of northern Ethiopia. Google Earth (2010?2016) and Landsat Imageries (1995?2015) were used to analyse the spatio‐temporal landscape changes. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was applied to measure the change in vegetation cover. Interview and Focus Group Discussions were used to collect perceptions of communities on transhumance and landscape change. The findings reveal that transhumance caused conflicts between the lowlanders and highlanders, which in turn led to displacement of communities. Consequently, the NDVI value of the abandoned settlement increased over time. Conversely, the analysis of Google Earth Imageries and NDVI values show that vegetation cover of the new settlement has decreased. Moreover, the NDVI values of the transhumance areas showed little increase due to the establishments of exclosures in the escarpments. The findings of this study can, therefore, be used to develop targeted interventions aimed at solving transhumance‐induced conflicts, displacement of communities and conservation of natural resources. 相似文献
9.
Megathrust earthquake sequences, comprising mainshocks and triggered aftershocks along the subduction interface and in the overriding crust, can impact multiple buildings and infrastructure in a city. The time between the mainshocks and aftershocks usually is too short to retrofit the structures; therefore, moderate‐size aftershocks can cause additional damage. To have a better understanding of the impact of aftershocks on city‐wide seismic risk assessment, a new simulation framework of spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of future M9.0 sequences in the Cascadia subduction zone is developed. The simulation framework consists of an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ground‐motion model, and state‐dependent seismic fragility model. The spatiotemporal ETAS model is modified to characterise aftershocks of large and anisotropic M9.0 mainshock ruptures. To account for damage accumulation of wood‐frame houses due to aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, state‐dependent fragility curves are implemented. The new simulation framework can be used for quasi‐real‐time aftershock hazard and risk assessments and city‐wide post‐event risk management. 相似文献
10.
Solomon Tesfamariam Rehan Sadiq 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(1):1-15
The concepts of system load and capacity are pivotal in risk analysis. The complexity in risk analysis increases when the
input parameters are either stochastic (aleatory uncertainty) and/or missing (epistemic uncertainty). The aleatory and epistemic
uncertainties related to input parameters are handled through simulation-based parametric and non-parametric probabilistic
techniques. The complexities increase further when the empirical relationships are not strong enough to derive physical-based
models. In this paper, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators are proposed to estimate the system load. The risk of failure
is estimated by assuming normally distributed reliability index. The proposed methodology for risk analysis is illustrated
using an example of nine-input parameters. Sensitivity analyses identified that the risk of failure is dominated by the attitude
of a decision-maker to generate OWA weights, missing input parameters and system capacity.
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| Rehan Sadiq (Corresponding author)Email: |