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1.
利用2006年4月和2008年10月分别采自南海北部湾和渤海长岛海域的119尾细条天竺鱼(Apogonichthys lineatus)和57尾黑鳃天竺鱼(Apogonichthys arafurae)标本,以耳石长、耳石宽、周长、面积、矩形趋近率、充实度为基本形态学参数,结合傅立叶变换获得的形态特征变量,研究了两种天竺鱼耳石形态的差异。结果显示,两种天竺鱼耳石在整体轮廓、听沟形状、边缘形态等方面较为接近,细条天竺鱼耳石整体形态较为卵圆,后部较宽;黑鳃天竺鱼耳石整体略细长,后部较窄。利用耳石形态学特征变量对两种天竺鱼的判别分析成功率分别高达82.5%和88.2%,显示耳石形态学分析是天竺鱼鱼种识别的有力手段。 相似文献
2.
In this paper,a hindcast study of the record-breaking rainfall event occurring in Beijing on 21July 2012,is conducted by using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model forced by National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Global Forecasting System(GFS)outputs,paired with an investigation of the impact of topography in this region.The results indicate that WRF can reasonably predict the salient features of orographic precipitation;the 24-h rainfall amount and spatial distribution compare reasonably well with the observations.The hindcast simulation also indicates that rainfall events can be predicted approximately 36 h ahead.When the topography is removed,the spatial distribution of rainfall changes remarkably,suggesting the importance of the topography in determining rainfall structure.These results also indicate that prediction of such city-scale heavy rainfall events would benefit from a high-resolution prediction system. 相似文献
3.
A novel strategy to determine the insurance and risk control plan for natural disaster risk management 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This study presents an extended framework for the analysis of economic effects of natural disaster risk management. It also attempts to define and evaluate the optimal insurance arrangements. A model, the economic utility constrained-maximization model, is proposed. The purpose of this study is to establish a strategy for determining an insurance and risk control plan in which consideration is given to balancing the economic effects (e.g., decrease in costs due to damage) by disaster mitigation. Furthermore, these values are compared with risk control actions for purposes of prioritization, to provide data to help evaluate the benefit of each risk control action. Disaster insurance policy premiums in contrast are based on actuarial data taken from situations in which risk control measures are not employed. This can make such contracts unfair to responsible enterprise managers who must take risk control measures. This represents an unfair aspect of insurance policies. Enterprise managers should be able to determine the optimum arrangement between natural disaster risk control and insurance given their budget limitations. The optimal strategies aim at the best applicability and balance between risk control and insurance capability for the enterprise manager. Risk control measures can generate several risk control options for enterprise managers. Premium discounts by insurers are given in this model. 相似文献
4.
Cheng-Wu Chen Kevin Fong-Rey Liu Chun-Pin Tseng Wen-Ko Hsu Wei-Ling Chiang 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1707-1716
Elicitation methods are used in decision making with respect to risk hazards to allow a researcher to infer the subjective utilities of outcomes from the observed preferences of an individual. A questionnaire method is presented, in this study, which takes into account the inevitable distortion of preferences by random errors and minimizes the effect of such errors. Under mild assumptions, the method for eliciting the utilities of many outcomes is a three-stage procedure. First, the questionnaire is utilized to elicit responses from which a subjective score is defined. Second, individual risk factors are discussed. Finally, the regression model presents individual risk preferences given the overall organizational risk culture, risk management policy, risk identification, and risk analysis. This paper addresses how company managers face risk and their tolerance of risk with respect to risk management. 相似文献
5.
Risk and uncertainty analysis in the planning stages of a risk decision-making process 总被引：7，自引：6，他引：1
Natural disaster risk, a long-time concern in the insurance industry, is increasingly recognized as a present danger in the
business strategies of risk control and enterprise management agencies. Floods and earthquakes can cause massive loss of life
and infrastructure, resulting in business interruption and heavy casualties. Many of the short-term developmental strategies
employed throughout the world have only served to exacerbate the impact of natural disasters. Therefore, this study presents
a review of formal methods that are commonly used in risk and uncertainty analysis in planning and concludes with a critical
assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of the different priority setting methods. Our focus is a preliminary proposal
for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves probabilistic constraints. 相似文献
6.
Projected Climate Change in the Northwestern Arid Regions of China: An Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations 
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下载免费PDF全文 The projected temperature and precipitationchange under different emissions scenarios using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models over the northwestern arid regions of China(NWAC) were analyzed using the ensemble of three high-resolution dynamical downscaling simulations: the simulation of the Regional Climate Model version 4.0(Reg CM4) forced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1(BCC_CSM1.1); the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model(Had GEM3-RA) forced by the Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Had GEM version 2(Had GEM2-AO); and the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model forced by the Norwegian community Earth System Model(Nor ESM1-M). Model validation indicated that the multimodel simulations reproduce the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation well. The temperature is projected to increase over NWAC under both the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) in the middle of the 21 st century, but the warming trend is larger under the RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation shows a significant increasing trend in spring and winter under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; but in summer, precipitation is projected to decrease in the Tarim Basin and Junggar Basin. The regional averaged temperature and precipitation show increasing trends in the future over NWAC; meanwhile, the large variability of the winter mean temperature and precipitation may induce more extreme cold events and intense snowfall events in these regions in the future. 相似文献
7.
Wen-Ko Hsu Wei-Ling Chiang Qiang Xue Dung-Mou Hung Pei-Chun Huang Cheng-Wu Chen Chung-Hung Tsai 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1559-1571
This paper presents the construction classification of the existing engineering covers in Taiwan. The exposure profile and variable vulnerability during different construction phases are established for some kinds of classes of construction. Finally, we present a method and framework to estimate the probable maximum loss of engineering insurance portfolio during an earthquake with consideration of the dynamic nature of structural changes and exposure values during a construction project. 相似文献
8.
基于GIS技术的重大危险源信息监控系统 总被引：11，自引：2，他引：9
对重大危险源信息监控系统建设中的数据库设计和相关功能的实现技术进行了详细探讨,并对系统在功能实现上的作用进行了介绍。 相似文献
9.
The existence of an oxygen exosphere and ionosphere in Saturn’s main ring region has been confirmed by the Saturn Orbital Insertion (SOI) observations of the Cassini spacecraft. Through the ion-molecule collisions, the ring atmosphere could serve as a source of ions throughout Saturn’s magnetosphere. If photolysis of ice in the main rings is the dominant source of O2, then the complex structure of the ring atmosphere/ionosphere and the injection rate of neutral O2 will be subject to modulation by the seasonal variation of Saturn along its orbit (Tseng, Wei-Ling, Ip, W.-H., Johnson, R.E., Cassidy, T.A., Erlod, M.K. [2010]. Icarus 206, 382-389). In addition, the radio and plasma wave science (RPWS) instrument onboard Cassini found that a large amount of the Enceladus-originated water-group plasma would be deposited on the outer edge of the A ring (Farrell, W.M., Kaiser, M.L., Gurnett, D.A., Kurth, W.S., Persoon, A.M., Wahlund, J.E., Canu, P. [2008]. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L02203). A large amount of Enceladus’ plume neutrals (water-group neutrals) would collide with the main rings through collisional interaction with the ambient neutrals and plasma ions (Jurac, S., Richardson, J.D. [2007]. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L08102; Cassidy, T.A., Johnson, R.E. [2010]. Icarus, in press). These absorbed ions and neutrals could be recycled to neutral oxygen molecules via grain-surface chemistry to contribute the ring oxygen atmosphere. In this work, we have examined the mass budget of the ring oxygen atmosphere of Saturn taking into account such an “exogenic” source. The maximum O2 source rate from recycling of Enceladus-originated plasma and neutrals is probably comparable or higher to the one from photolytic decomposition of ices. In the above case, the neutral O2 source rate would be independent of the solar insolation angle. Therefore, even at Saturn’s Equinox, the extended oxygen atmosphere still could be an important supplier of oxygen ions in the saturnian magnetosphere. We have performed several studies for different recycling source rates from Enceladus. These predictions need further the Cassini Plasma Spectrometer (CAPS) and the Magnetospheric Imaging Instrument (MIMI) observations to be verified in future. 相似文献
10.
In this paper, we build an event-based seismic hazard assessment and financial analysis model for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan. As we know, the low occurrence rate, tremendous loss and high uncertainty are characteristics of earthquake disasters. To handle the above issues, the model integrates knowledge from many fields including earth science, seismology, geology, risk management, structural engineering, the insurance profession, financial engineering and facility management. The portfolio of data from the site survey indicates that the model can be used to calculate the event losses (including buildings, contents and business interruption losses); furthermore the average annual loss and loss exceeding probabilities also can be calculated. The total earthquake risk cost, which includes earthquake insurance premiums, average annual retained loss and equivalent annual retrofit cost, is defined as an indicator for selection of optimal risk management strategies. 相似文献