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ABSTRACT In this study, the distributed catchment-scale model, DiCaSM, was applied on five catchments across the UK. Given its importance, river flow was selected to study the uncertainty in streamflow prediction using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology at different timescales (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual). The uncertainty analysis showed that the observed river flows were within the predicted bounds/envelope of 5% and 95% percentiles. These predicted river flow bounds contained most of the observed river flows, as expressed by the high containment ratio, CR. In addition to CR, other uncertainty indices – bandwidth B, relative bandwidth RB, degrees of asymmetry S and T, deviation amplitude D, relative deviation amplitude RD and the R factor – also indicated that the predicted river flows have acceptable uncertainty levels. The results show lower uncertainty in predicted river flows when increasing the timescale from daily to monthly to seasonal, with the lowest uncertainty associated with annual flows. 相似文献
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Pettersson M Hahlbeck E Katsiadaki I Asplund L Bengtsson BE 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(12):1868-1880
The potential for endocrine disruption close to sewage treatment plant and pulp mill effluent discharge points along the Swedish Baltic Sea coast was explored using a dual survey strategy employing two stationary fish species. The levels of vitellogenin and spiggin as biomarkers of endocrine disruption were determined in juvenile three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) together with the sex ratios and the presence of intersex. As an indication of exposure, estrogenic and androgenic substances were analysed by GC–MS in bile from perch (Perca fluviatilis L.). Spiggin and vitellogenin levels in juvenile three-spined sticklebacks were generally low, and, for most sampling sites no deviation in gonad type ratios were observed. No remarkable levels of natural or synthetic estrogens or androgens were observed in bile fluid from perch, while bisphenol A and 4-nonylphenol were detected in perch from both reference sites and exposed sites. Taken together, the results did not indicate estrogenic or androgenic disruption in the investigated waters. 相似文献
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Ioanna Diamantoulaki Demos C. Angelides George D. Manolis 《Applied Ocean Research》2008,30(4):243-255
The overall performance of pile-restrained flexible floating breakwaters is investigated under the action of linear monochromatic incident waves in the frequency domain. The aforementioned floating breakwaters undergo only vertical structural deflections along their length and are held in place by means of vertical piles. The total number of degrees of freedom equals the six conventional body modes, when the breakwater moves as a rigid body, plus the extra bending modes. These bending modes are introduced to represent the structural deflections of the floating breakwater and are described by the Bernoulli–Euler flexible beam equation. The number of bending modes introduced is determined through an appropriate iterative procedure. The hydrostatic coefficients corresponding to the bending modes are also derived. The numerical analysis of the flexible floating breakwaters is based on a three-dimensional hydrodynamic formulation of the floating body. A parametric study is carried out for a wide range of structural stiffness parameters and wave headings, to investigate their effect on the performance of flexible floating breakwaters. Moreover, this performance is compared with that of the corresponding pile-restrained rigid floating breakwater. Results indicated that the degree of structural stiffness and the wave heading strongly affect the performance of flexible floating breakwaters. The existence of an “optimum” value of structural stiffness is demonstrated for the entire wave frequency range. 相似文献
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Ioanna Ioannou Bjarni Bessason Ioannis Kosmidis Jón Örvar Bjarnason Tiziana Rossetto 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(12):5875-5903
In June 2000, two Mw6.5 earthquakes occurred within a 4-day interval in the largest agricultural region of Iceland causing substantial damage and no loss of life. The distance between the earthquake epicentres and the fault rupture was approximately 15 km. Nearly 5000 low-rise residential buildings were affected, some of which were located between the faults and exposed to strong ground motion from both events. The post-earthquakes damage and repair costs for every residential building in the epicentral region were assessed for insurance purposes. The database is detailed and complete for the whole region and represents one of the best quality post-earthquake vulnerability datasets used for seismic loss estimation. Nonetheless, the construction of vulnerability curves from this database is hampered by the fact that the loss values represent the cumulative damage from two sequential earthquakes in some areas, and single earthquakes in others. A novel methodology based on beta regression is proposed here in order to define the geographical limits on areas where buildings sustained cumulative damage and predict the seismic losses for future sequence of events in each area. The results show that the average building loss in areas affected by a single event is below 10% of the building replacement value, whilst this increases to an average of 25% in areas affected by the two earthquakes. The proposed methodology can be used to empirically assess the vulnerability in other areas which experienced sequence of events such as Emilia-Romagna (Italy) in 2012. 相似文献
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Ilia Ioanna Rozos Dimitrios Perraki Theodora Tsangaratos Paris 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2009,1(4):431-442
Thirty bulk samples of hard soils-soft rocks such as marls, originating from Euboea Island and Peloponnesus area, were investigated to evaluate their geotechnical behavior. Specifically, by conducting a series of physical and geotechnical tests, such as liquid limit and plastic limit tests, along with the estimation of the grain size fraction, Slake Durability and Point Load Test. Certain parameters were determined and used for empirical correlations with their mineralogical characteristics. The mineralogical composition was determined by X-ray diffraction, thermo-gravimetric and thermal analysis, succeeded by textural analysis performed by Optical Microscope. With the help of the above mentioned tests, we interpreted the observed geotechnical behavior of the examined weak rocks by means of mineralogical composition and texture. Durability and the unconfined compressive strength was found to be influenced by high percentages in carbonate minerals. In addition, it was found that a decrease in clay content resulted in higher strength and durability values. The concluded empirical correlations verified the influence of these parameters and gave a general overview of the engineering behavior of the examined weak rocks. 相似文献
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Ioannis A. Daglis Georgios Balasis Natalia Ganushkina Fiori-Anastasia Metallinou Minna Palmroth Risto Pirjola Ioanna Tsagouri 《Acta Geophysica》2009,57(1):141-157
Comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system is of utmost interest,
both from the perspective of solar system astrophysics and geophysics research and from the perspective of space applications.
The physical processes involved in the dynamical evolution of this complex coupled system are pertinent not only for the Sun-Earth
connection, but also for major phenomena in other astrophysical systems. Furthermore, the conditions in geospace collectively
termed space weather affect the ever increasing technological assets of mankind in space and therefore need to be understood,
quantified and efficiently forecasted. The present collaborative paper communicates recent advances in geospace dynamic coupling
research through modeling, simulations and data analysis and discusses future directions. 相似文献
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Kirby MF Smith AJ Barry J Katsiadaki I Lyons B Scott AP 《Marine environmental research》2006,62(4):315-325
This study was conducted as an initial investigation of 'differential response' in one of the main sentinel organisms used for monitoring programmes in United Kingdom estuaries, the flounder Platichthys flesus. It has been hypothesised that monitoring using species with a wide geographical spread and limited migration, such as flounder, might result in the comparison of different genetic stocks and certainly of populations with differing early life stage contaminant exposure histories. Furthermore, it is probable that these pre-exposure and genetic differences could manifest themselves in an ability to respond differently to contaminant exposure, so-called 'differential response'. It is important that the extent and nature of this response is understood, if we want to be able to fully interpret the monitoring data from such programmes. During this study, flounder were collected from four separate sources; wild caught fish from the estuaries of the Rivers Alde, Mersey and Tyne, and farmed flounder from Port Erin Farm, Isle of Man. Under controlled laboratory conditions, groups of fish from each source were exposed to water-borne concentrations of the synthetic oestrogen ethynylestradiol (EE2) at a nominal concentration of 50 ng/l. Plasma was taken from each male fish after 6 and 10 days exposure and analysed for the presence of vitellogenin (VTG) using an ELISA technique. Significant levels of VTG induction were evident in fish from all sources after both 6 and 10 days exposure. Flounder from the Mersey were the only fish with significantly elevated initial background levels of VTG (day 0) and this appeared to be reflected in that these specimens showed the highest induction response after day 6. However, after day 10, fish from all other sites had a slightly higher mean VTG than those from the Mersey which showed significantly (p < 0.05) lower mean plasma VTG. It is suggested that other differential responses may have been masked by the use of a high dose of EE2 which produced maximum induction in nearly all fish. The findings of the study are discussed in terms of implications for further research into the differential response issue and how the initial plasma VTG figures contribute to a time-series from the Mersey, Tyne and Alde estuaries. 相似文献
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PAH were determined in surface waters from the Rhone delta in winter and summer 1987. Both particulate and dissolved phases were analyzed by GC and GC/MS. Concentrations of major unsubstituted compounds associated with particles varied from a few to 20 ng l−1, or from 0.42 to 6.0 μg g−1. The seasonal variations reflected higher inputs in winter resulting from the presence of highly PAH-enriched particles. Tetra- and penta-cyclic PAH with MW 202 and 252 predominated, which reflected a significant origin from pyrolytic processes. A rapid decrease of the level of higher MW PAH was observed seawards in both seasons. Study of the tricyclic compounds and their alkylated homologues demonstrated a mainly fossil origin in winter, whereas in summer a high heterogeneity of particles was observed. PAH in the dissolved phase were found at concentrations up to 31 and 50 ng l−1 in summer and winter, respectively. These levels were much higher than those encountered in the corresponding particulate phases. PAH with MW 178 and 202 predominated, and the alkylated homologues of the tricyclic compounds showed a major fossil orgin in winter and a mixed origin in summer. In winter dissolved PAH were transported through the delta into the marine environment without significant losses. 相似文献
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Maria V. Triantaphyllou Alexandra Gogou Margarita D. Dimiza Sofia Kostopoulou Constantine Parinos Grigoris Roussakis Maria Geraga Ioanna Bouloubassi Dominik Fleitmann Vassilis Zervakis Dimitris Velaoras Antonia Diamantopoulou Angeliki Sampatakaki Vassilis Lykousis 《Geo-Marine Letters》2016,36(1):51-66