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Terry Barker Eva Alexandri Jean-Francois Mercure Yuki Ogawa Hector Pollitt 《Climate Policy》2016,16(4):393-414
Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.
Policy relevance
The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions. 相似文献
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We performed seismic waveform inversions and numerical landslide simulations of deep-seated landslides in Japan to understand the dynamic evolution of friction of the landslides. By comparing the forces obtained from a numerical simulation to those resolved from seismic waveform inversion, the coefficient of friction during sliding was well-constrained between 0.3 and 0.4 for landslides with volumes of 2–8 ×106 m3. We obtained similar coefficients of friction for landslides with similar scale and geology, and they are consistent with the empirical relationship between the volume and dynamic coefficient of friction obtained from the past studies. This hybrid method of the numerical simulation and seismic waveform inversion shows the possibility of reproducing or predicting the movement of a large-scale landslide. Our numerical simulation allows us to estimate the velocity distribution for each time step. The maximum velocity at the center of mass is 12–36 m/s and is proportional to the square root of the elevation change at the center of mass of the landslide body, which suggests that they can be estimated from the initial DEMs. About 20% of the total potential energy is transferred to the kinetic energy in our volume range. The combination of the seismic waveform inversion and the numerical simulation helps to obtain the well-constrained dynamic coefficients of friction and velocity distribution during sliding, which will be used in numerical models to estimate the hazard of potential landslides. 相似文献
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We analyse Japanese newspaper coverage of global warming from January 1998 to July 2007 and how public opinion during parts of that period were influenced by newspaper coverage. We show that a dramatic increase in newspaper coverage of global warming from January 2007 correlated with an increase in public concern for the issue. Before January 2007, we find that coverage of global warming had an immediate but short-term influence on public concern. With such transitory high levels of media coverage we suggest that for more effective communication of climate change, strategies aimed at maintaining mass-media coverage of global warming are required. 相似文献
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Sediment organic matter source estimation and ecological classification in the semi-enclosed Batan Bay Estuary,Philippines 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The large organic matter flow in tropical coastal areas is recognized as an important process in the global carbon(C)cycle.However,the nature of organic matter flow in semi-enclosed tropical estuaries remains unclear due to the various environmental processes(tidal change,river flow,waves from the sea,and internal circulation)and organic matter sources therein.Thus,sediment organic matter(SOM)sources,and their distribution pattern,are key to understanding ecosystem material flow.Our research in the Batan Bay Estuary,Philippines,a semi-enclosed estuary under large mangrove deforestation,was conducted to determine ecosystem properties through analysis of C and nitrogen stable isotope ratios and environmental factors.First,we determined that mangrove litter,microphytobenthos,and phytoplankton are the main SOM sources in the Batan Bay Estuary.Second,the estuary was classified into three ecological zones(the Bay zone,Back-barrier zone,and River zone).In addition,we estimated SOM source ratios using the Stable Isotope Analysis in R package and determined different organic matter sources in different zone.The high ratios of mangrove litter as SOM indicate that a large amount of terrestrial plant organic matter remains despite the heavy mangrove deforestation that has occurred since the 1980s,and that the Back-barrier zone consists of a different type of ecosystem that promotes accumulation of C from mangrove litter and microphytobenthos. 相似文献
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Carbonate‐replacement polymetallic mineralization at the Huanzala deposits (9°51′S, 77°00′W) was conducted in two contrasting stages that occurred in almost the same location. Early‐stage mineralization has a relation with a granodiorite porphyry stock, whereas the late‐stage mineralization is genetically associated with quartz porphyry sills. The early stage involved low to intermediate sulfidation Cu–Zn–(Pb) mineralization associated with metasomatic skarn, and the late stage involved high to intermediate sulfidation Cu–Zn–Pb–(Mn) mineralization associated with hydrothermal alteration characterized by paragonitic sericitization. The orebodies are hosted by steeply dipping (approximately 60°NE) Lower Cretaceous carbonate rocks in a relatively narrow range of approximately 4 km in horizontal extent and less than 1 km in depth. The pathway of the early‐stage brine‐derived fluids (300–>400°C, >33 wt% NaCl equivalent) along a plot of log against 1000/T is best explained by the progressive dual decline of the value and the temperature under rock‐buffering conditions; this decline saw the pathway progress through the stability field of pyrrhotite to reach that of pyrite and promoted a decrease in FeS from 14.5 to 1.6 mol% in the sphalerite. In contrast, an explanation for the pathway of the late‐stage fluids (140–290°C, 3–13 wt% NaCl equivalent) is given by an almost isothermal decline at approximately 270°C, with passing through the stability field of pyrite–bornite to reach that of chalcopyrite, promoting an increase in FeS from 0.1 to 1.6 mol% in the sphalerite, suggesting gas‐buffering conditions. The ore formation pressure records in the fluid inclusions illustrate an approximately 2‐km erosion during the roughly 2‐Myr total lifetime of the hydrothermal system. 相似文献
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Nutrients,light and phytoplankton production in the shallow,tropical coastal waters of Bandon Bay,Southern Thailand 
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下载免费PDF全文 Takashi Yoshikawa Kosuke Tomizawa Yuki Okamoto Kazuya Watanabe Jintana Salaenoi Kenichi Hayashizaki Hisashi Kurokura Satoshi Ishikawa 《Marine Ecology》2017,38(6)
Phytoplankton primary production and its regulation by light and nutrient availability were investigated in the shallow, tropical coastal waters of Bandon Bay, Southern Thailand. The bay was meso‐eutrophicated and highly turbid, receiving river water discharge. Water column stratification was consistently weak during both rainy and dry seasons. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) was higher off the river mouth than in the other regions, suggesting that river water discharge was a main source of DIN. By contrast, dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) showed a significant negative correlation with total water depth, implying that regeneration around the sea floor was an important source of DIP. Surface DIN and DIP showed positive correlations with surface primary production (PP) and water column primary productivity (ΣPP*), respectively. The combined correlation and model analyses indicate that total water depth had an ambivalent influence on water column primary production (ΣPP); shallower water depth induced more active regeneration of nutrients, but it also caused higher turbidity and lower light availability as a result of enhanced resuspension of sediments. Furthermore, there was a vertical constraint for phytoplankton during the rainy season: total water depth tended to be shallower than euphotic zone depth. In conclusion, light limitation and vertical constraint owing to shallow water depth appear to be more important than nutrient limitation for water column primary production in Bandon Bay. 相似文献
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The Batu Hijau deposit is the only porphyry type deposit in production in the Sunda‐Banda arc, Indonesia. This study discusses the reason for the localization of copper grade at the deep part of the deposit based on the observation of opaque mineral assemblage. In addition, the formation condition of quartz veins and opaque minerals is discussed on the basis of the fluid inclusion microthermometry. Samples were selected from drill holes SBD100, SBD168, SBD194, SBD254, and SBD257 to cover the wide vertical range. At the Batu Hijau deposit, quartz veins have been classified mainly into four types called A, B, C and D veins, and the A veins contain mainly bornite, often associated with digenite and chalcocite. In addition, magnetite occurs in A veins. However, at the deep part of the deposit, there are quartz veins associated with magnetite, but few copper sulfides such as bornite and chalcopyrite in quartz veins, as observed in SBD257. Quartz veins at depth in SBD257 have abundant magnetite and pyrite. Pyrite in quartz veins at depth in SBD257 mainly occur at the rim of magnetite grains or interstices between them. In quartz veins in SBD254, there are abundant copper sulfides such as bornite and chalcopyrite in spite of the depth. Bornite and chalcopyrite occur as inclusions in magnetite grains in quartz veins in SBD254. Pyrite which often occurs in low grade zone in quartz veins in SBD254 is also recognized at the rims of copper sulfides. This indicates that pyrite in SBD257 and SBD254 formed later than magnetite. On the other hand, blebs of bornite and chalcopyrite inclusions in magnetite grains, which are recognized in quartz veins in SBD168 at shallow high grade part, suggest that the hydrothermal fluid, from which magnetite was deposited also brought the copper sulfides such as bornite and chalcopyrite to the deep part of the Batu Hijau deposit. Therefore, it is concluded that initially the high grade ore zone extended to depth without localization. However due to the later overprinting hydrothermal activity, copper sulfides and magnetite were replaced or dissolved and pyrite was formed, resulting the low grade zone at the deep part of the deposit. Dissolution temperatures (Td) of halite obtained by from fluid inclusion microthermometry show significant differences between SBD168 and other drill holes. The high Td obtained in SBD168 may indicate larger volume of NaCl crystals in hydrothermal fluid at the time of entrapment of the fluid inclusions and formation of other opaque minerals such as magnetite and copper‐iron sulfides. It suggests that the ratio of vapor to brine is also higher at the shallow part of the deposit. The higher vapor to brine ratio may suggest a higher degree of boiling. Removal of vapor phase separated from brine during boiling increases the concentration of substances dissolved in the brine, and this will result in saturation, as evidenced by the salinity and NaCl saturation. The higher degree of boiling suggested by the higher vapor to brine ratio at shallow part may have increased the copper concentration in the brine that may have lead the saturation, resulted in the deposition of copper‐bearing minerals. 相似文献
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Akio Suzuki Eiji Ohtani Hidenori Terasaki Keisuke Nishida Hiromi Hayashi Tatsuya Sakamaki Yuki Shibazaki Takumi Kikegawa 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2011,38(1):59-64
The viscosity of a silicate melt of composition NaAlSi2O6 was measured at pressures from 1.6 to 5.5 GPa and at temperatures from 1,350 to 1,880°C. We employed in situ falling sphere
viscometry using X-ray radiography. We found that the viscosity of the NaAlSi2O6 melt decreased with increasing pressure up to 2 GPa. The pressure dependence of viscosity is diminished above 2 GPa. By using
the relationship between the logarithm of viscosity and the reciprocal temperature, the activation energies for viscous flow
were calculated to be 3.7 ± 0.4 × 102 and 3.7 ± 0.5 × 102 kJ/mol at 2.2 and 2.9 GPa, respectively. 相似文献
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This study presents a semi-empirical model for quantifying the reduction in the mechanical strength of bedrock beneath actively eroding soil-mantled hillslopes. The strength reduction of bedrock controls the rate of physical disintegration of saprolite, which supplies fresh minerals that are then exposed to intense chemical weathering in soil sections. To determine the values of parameters employed in the model requires knowledge of the denudation rate of the hillslope, the thickness of the soil and saprolite layers, the strength of fresh bedrock, and the threshold strength for physical erosion at the uppermost face of the saprolite. These parameters can be obtained from cosmogenic nuclide analyses for quartz samples from the soil–saprolite boundary and basic field- and laboratory-based investigations. Further testing of the model within a diverse range of climatic, tectonic, and lithologic environments is likely to provide clues to the mechanisms responsible for local and regional variations in the rates of soil production and chemical weathering upon hillslopes. 相似文献