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Lukáš Ackerman Gordon Medaris Jr. Petr Špaček Jaromír Ulrych 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2015,104(8):1957-1979
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西藏羊卓雍湖流域近45 年气温和降水的变化趋势 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
利用西藏羊卓雍湖流域气象、水文观测站1961-2005 年逐月的平均气温、降水量等资 料, 分析了近45 年流域气温、降水的年际和年代际变化特征和异常年份, 以及羊湖水位变化趋势及影响因子, 结果表明： 近45 年流域年平均气温以0.25 oC/10a 的速率显著升高, 增温主要表现在秋、冬季。近25 年, 流域平均降水量除冬季呈减少趋势外, 其他各季节表现为显 著的增加趋势, 增幅为11.4~30.0 mm/10a, 夏季增幅最大; 年降水量以54.2 mm/10a 的速率明显增加。20 世纪60 年代至90 年代, 除夏季外, 其他3 季表现为逐年代增温趋势。在夏季, 降水量除80 年代偏少外, 其他3 个年代偏多; 而冬季相反, 80 年代降水偏多, 其他3 个年代偏少。流域年平均气温异常偏高年出现过3 次, 且发生在20 世纪90 年代末至21 世纪初; 60 年代后期和70 年代初降水多异常年份。自1997 年发电以来, 降水量呈增加趋势, 流域平均降水量达409.7 mm, 明显高于平衡降水量, 水位呈较明显的上升趋势。降水增多、日照减少, 以及气温明显升高、冰雪融水增加是造成水位上升的主要原因。 相似文献
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西藏植被净初级生产力对气候变化的响应 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
根据1971-2005年年平均气温、降水量资料．采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算了西藏植被净初级生产力（net primary production,NPP）,分析了NPP的空间分布、年际和年代际变化特征,以及未来气候变化对NPP的影响。结果表明,西藏NPP有自东南向西北递减的分布规律。近35a阿里地区西南部、聂拉木、江孜NPP为减少趋势,减幅为11．9～314．2kg·hm^-2·（10a）^-1,以普兰减幅最大;其他各地呈不同程度的增加趋势,增幅为26．8～459．8kg·hm^-2·（10a）^-1,其中拉萨增幅最明显;林芝地区、昌都地区北部、那曲地区NPP呈明显的逐年代增加趋势,阿里地区西南部、聂拉木NPP表现为逐年代减少趋势。就西藏平均而言,20世纪70年代气候“冷干”,NPP偏低;90年代气候“暖湿”,NPP偏高。从设定的气候变化情景来看,“暖湿型”气候对西藏NPP有利,平均增产6％～13％;“冷干型”气候对西藏NPP不利,平均减产6％-14％。未来西藏以“暖湿型”气候为主,到2050年NPP将增加11％～26％。 相似文献
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P. Špaček Z. Sýkorová J. Pazdírková J. Švancara J. Havíř 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2006,50(2):233-258
The Variscan Bohemian Massif is disrupted by the NW-SE striking Elbe Fault System in its northern part. The increased tectonic
activity associated with this structure is manifested by increased seismicity in the eastern part of the Sudetes. With the
use of a temporary local seismic network, the total number of micro-earthquakes located in this region increased to 153 for
the period 1996–2003. The local magnitudes vary between −0.6 and 1.8 and the seismic energy was often released in swarm-like
sequences. Five seismic events with well-defined P-onset polarities at five or six stations enabled the estimation of focal
mechanisms. The present-day activity of the WNW-ESE to NNW-SSE fault systems is discussed on the basis of source mechanisms,
the alignment of the epicentres, as well as morphological and geological evidence. The majority of the recent seismic activity
is concentrated in a 40–60 km wide zone of a generally NW-SE trend. This structure represents a regional zone of weakness
within the SE termination of the Elbe Fault System, defined by a mesh of interconnected faults, of which many are deep-seated
and highly permeable and some are associated with light to moderate historical earthquakes. Both in the areas due south and
due north of this zone the present-day seismic activity is very low. The increased tectonic activity can be interpreted as
a result of the abundance of suitably oriented faults and their interconnection into major fault systems, the proximity of
the Outer Carpathian indentor and the Cainozoic volcanic and associated recent post-volcanic activity. The similar character
of swarms and their coincidence with the post-volcanic activity in the southeastern part of the Elbe Fault System and in some
focal zones of the western Bohemian seismically active area suggests that overpressurized fluids may represent a potential
swarm-triggering mechanism. 相似文献
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The RESIK instrument on the CORONAS-F spacecraft obtained solar flare and active-region X-ray spectra in four channels covering the wavelength range 3.8?–?6.1 Å in its operational period between 2001 and 2003. Several highly ionized silicon lines were observed within the range of the long-wavelength channel (5.00?–?6.05 Å). The fluxes of the Si?xiv Ly-β line (5.217 Å) and the Si?xiii 1s 2?–?1s3p line (5.688 Å) during 21 flares with optimized pulse-height analyzer settings on RESIK have been analyzed to obtain the silicon abundance relative to hydrogen in flare plasmas. As in previous work, the emitting plasma for each spectrum is assumed to be characterized by a single temperature and emission measure given by the ratio of emission in the two channels of GOES. The silicon abundance is determined to be A(Si)=7.93±.21 (Si?xiv) and 7.89±.13 (Si?xiii) on a logarithmic scale with H=12. These values, which vary by only very small amounts from flare to flare and times within flares, are 2.6±1.3 and 2.4±0.7 times the photospheric abundance, and are about a factor of three higher than RESIK measurements during a period of very low activity. There is a suggestion that the Si/S abundance ratio increases from active regions to flares. 相似文献
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1971-2005年西藏主要农区农田蒸散量变化特征及其与环境因子的关系 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
利用1971—2005年西藏"一江两河"主要农区4个气象站点月平均最高气温、最低气温、降水量、风速、相对湿度、日照时数等资料,应用Penman-Monteith模型计算了农田蒸散量,分析其空间分布、年际和年代际变化特征,并讨论了影响蒸散量变化的气象因子.研究表明:近35a西藏主要农区年蒸散量表现为不同程度的减小趋势,为-16.5～-71.6mm.(10a)-1,以泽当减幅最大;四季蒸散量均呈现为减小趋势,以冬季减幅最明显.土壤水分年亏缺量呈明显的减少趋势,平均每10a减小59.6mm,特别是近25a(1981—2005年)减幅更明显.20世纪70年代至90年代年、季蒸散量均为逐年代减小趋势.90年代与80年代比较,主要农区各季土壤水分亏缺量都有不同程度的减小,尤其是夏季由亏缺转为盈余.日照时数和平均风速的显著下降,以及平均相对湿度的明显增加可能是蒸散量显著下降的主要原因,平均气温日较差的显著减小和降水量的增加在蒸散量减少趋势中也起着重要作用. 相似文献
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近40年西藏怒江河谷盆地的气候特征及变化趋势 总被引：15，自引：1，他引：14
利用1971-2008年西藏怒江流域9个气象站逐月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、降水量、日照时数等资料,分析了近40a怒江流域年、季气象要素的变化趋势.并计算讨论了变化趋势与经纬度、海拔高度的相关.结果表明:近40a流域年平均气温以0.26℃/10a的速率显著升高,增暖趋势比中国东北和西北弱.比淮河和华南强,与青藏高原相近.最高气温和最低气温都出现了增高的趋势,年平均气温日较差表现为一致的减小趋势,为-0.13-0.57℃/10a:年降水量以21.O mm/10a的速宰显著增加,各季降水均呈现增加趋势;年日照时数平均每10年减少31.7 h,以夏季减幅最突出.减幅比黄河流域、青藏高原东侧大;地温升高明显.流域上游季节性冻土最大冻结深度呈显著变浅趋势,以安多最明显.日照时数与降水量负相关显著.与夏、秋季大气水汽压呈显著的负相关;大部分站点日照时数的减少,与大气水汽压的显著增加和降水量的增多关系密切.总云量与日较差存在显著负相关.与夏季降水量呈显著正相关,相对湿度的变化不是总云量减少的主要原因.随着纬度的增加和海拔高度的上升,年平均气温升温幅度在加大,年降水量增幅也增大.日照时数的变化趋势仅与经度有着很好的正相关,随着经度的增加,冬季和夏季日照时数的减幅都在减小. 相似文献
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Bohumír Janský Zbyněk Engel Miroslav Šobr Vojtěch Beneš Karel Špaček Serguei Yerokhin 《Natural Hazards》2009,50(1):83-96
An interdisciplinary study of glacier-related hazards in the Petrov lake region (Ak-Shiirak Range, the Inner Tien-Shan, Kyrgyzstan)
has been undertaken to identify potential dangers to the area. A cooperative effort from experts in the fields of hydrology,
glaciology, geomorphology and geophysics has been employed in this study. For the hazard assessment, evolution of the Petrov
glacier and lake was reconstructed using historical reports, aerial photographs and satellite images. Geomorphological mapping
and geophysical soundings was applied to the lake territory and the moraine dam. This has identified potentially hazardous
areas of the dam including subsurface drainage zones and cracks that could cause a sudden extremely high discharge. In the
past three decades, the Petrov lake has doubled in size, while in recent years, its area has been increasing by more than
92,000 square metres per year. Although there is no evidence for an imminent outburst, the dramatic increase in the lake’s
size emphasizes the importance of this study. 相似文献