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1.
Here we investigate simulated changes in the precipitation climate over the Baltic Sea and surrounding land areas for the period 2071–2100 as compared to 1961–1990. We analyze precipitation in 10 regional climate models taking part in the European PRUDENCE project. Forced by the same global driving climate model, the mean of the regional climate model simulations captures the observed climatological precipitation over the Baltic Sea runoff land area to within 15% in each month, while single regional models have errors up to 25%. In the future climate, the precipitation is projected to increase in the Baltic Sea area, especially during winter. During summer increased precipitation in the north is contrasted with a decrease in the south of this region. Over the Baltic Sea itself the future change in the seasonal cycle of precipitation is markedly different in the regional climate model simulations. We show that the sea surface temperatures have a profound impact on the simulated hydrological cycle over the Baltic Sea. The driving global climate model used in the common experiment projects a very strong regional increase in summertime sea surface temperature, leading to a significant increase in precipitation. In addition to the common experiment some regional models have been forced by either a different set of Baltic Sea surface temperatures, lateral boundary conditions from another global climate model, a different emission scenario, or different initial conditions. We make use of the large number of experiments in the PRUDENCE project, providing an ensemble consisting of more than 25 realizations of climate change, to illustrate sources of uncertainties in climate change projections. 相似文献
2.
Hilkka Pellikka Jenni Rauhala Kimmo K. Kahma Tapani Stipa Hanna Boman Antti Kangas 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(1):197-215
We present four case studies of exceptional wave events of meteorological origin, observed on the Finnish coast in the summers of 2010 and 2011. Eyewitnesses report unusually rapid and strong sea-level variations (up to 1 m in 5–15 min) and strong oscillating currents during these events. High-resolution sea-level measurements confirm the eyewitness observations, but the oscillations recorded by tide gauges mostly have a considerably smaller amplitude. The oscillations coincide with sudden jumps in surface air pressure at coastal observation stations, related to the passage of squall lines or gust fronts. These fronts propagate above the sea at a resonant speed, allowing efficient energy transfer between the atmospheric disturbance and the sea wave that it generates. Thus, we interpret the observed sea-level oscillations as small meteotsunamis, long tsunami-like waves generated by meteorological processes and resonance effects. 相似文献
3.
Mauri J. Valtonen Kimmo A. Innanen Leena Tähtinen 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1984,107(2):209-222
Numerical simulations have been performed in order to study the gravitational interaction between the outlying population of the Galaxy and the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). The following effects have been noted: (1) halo objects are partially removed from the orbital distance of the LMC such that a local minimum is created in the radial density profile; (2) a large number of halo objects go into escape orbits. This possibility makes the determination of the mass of the Galaxy by virial theorem arguments unreliable; (3) the orbit of the LMC decays faster than what one would expect on the basis of the classical dynamical friction calculation. The excess friction derives from three-body effects, which are not accounted for in the classical dynamical friction. Finally, the fates of globular clusters and dwarf galaxies near the Galaxy and the LMC are discussed. 相似文献
4.
Mads Faurschou Knudsen Peter Riisager Fabio Donadini Ian Snowball Raimund Muscheler Kimmo Korhonen Lauri J. Pesonen 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2008,272(1-2):319-329
All absolute paleointensity data published in peer-reviewed journals were recently compiled in the GEOMAGIA50 database. Based on the information in GEOMAGIA50, we reconstruct variations in the geomagnetic dipole moment over the past 50 kyr, with a focus on the Holocene period. A running-window approach is used to determine the axial dipole moment that provides the optimal least-squares fit to the paleointensity data, whereas associated error estimates are constrained using a bootstrap procedure. We subsequently compare the reconstruction from this study with previous reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole moment, including those based on cosmogenic radionuclides (10Be and 14C). This comparison generally lends support to the axial dipole moments obtained in this study. Our reconstruction shows that the evolution of the dipole moment was highly dynamic, and the recently observed rates of change (5% per century) do not appear unique. We observe no apparent link between the occurrence of archeomagnetic jerks and changes in the geomagnetic dipole moment, suggesting that archeomagnetic jerks most likely represent drastic changes in the orientation of the geomagnetic dipole axis or periods characterized by large secular variation of the non-dipole field. This study also shows that the Holocene geomagnetic dipole moment was high compared to that of the preceding 40 kyr, and that 4 · 1022 Am2 appears to represent a critical threshold below which geomagnetic excursions and reversals occur. 相似文献
5.
We derive strong constraints on the Yukawa couplings and the vacuum expectation value in the singlet majoron model. The presence of a small gravitationally induced mass for the majoron can be used to set a constraint on its vacuum expectation value. If the singlet symmetry breaking scale is larger than the electroweak symmetry breaking scale, lepton number violating interactions in equilibrium with electroweak sphaleron interactions would destroy any prior baryon asymmetry. If the baryon asymmetry is not generated at the electroweak scale or later, strong bounds on the Yukawa couplings h 10−7 and VEVs vs < vEW are derived. We also carefully rederive baryogenesis bounds on neutrino masses, finding that in general they apply not to the masses themselves, but only to related parameters, and they are numerically somewhat less stringent than has previously been claimed. 相似文献
6.
Several cores were compared to elucidate the grade of mercury retention in sediments of the Baltic Sea near Oulu, Finland. The known history of the mercury discharge to waste water from a chlor-alkali plant, the primary pollution source, was compared to that in the sedimentary record. One core was dated by lead-210 and varve counts. During the past thirty years, the rate of sedimentation was up to 10 mm per year corresponding to a dry matter accumulation rate of about 3 kg m–2a–1. Under these conditions, most of the mercury reaching the sediment was retained. Correspondingly, the mercury levels in fish were considerably lower, with a delay of some five years.The present mercury content of the upper layers is some 1/4 or 1/5 that of the late 1970's, but it is still some twentyfold compared to levels at the beginning of the century. The extent to which the present mercury level in the sediment represents the various phases of industrial emission remains unsolved due to the origin of mercury in this sea area from several other sources and due to difficulties in exact core correlations from different years. 相似文献
7.
Why we study the geological record for evidence of the solar oscillation about the galactic midplane
John J. Matese Patrick G. Whitman Kimmo A. Innanen Mauri J. Valtonen 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1995,71(3):7-12
The Solar System oscillates about the plane defined by the disk of matter in our Galaxy. This oscillatory motion gives rise to a substantial modulation in the tidally induced flux of Oort cloud comets. An observational determination of the quasi-periodicity of this motion carries with it significant information about the population, distributions, dynamics and origins of short-period and long-period comets. An additional incentive for emphasizing such a study is the information about dark disk matter that a period can yield. If dark disk matter is completely negligible, the amplitude of the solar motion will be sufficiently large that the peak-to-trough flux ratio will be 2.5 and the plane-crossing period will exceed 40 Myr. Dark disk matter comparable in mass to bright disk matter and distributed in any manner is inconsistent with K-dwarf distributions and can be rejected as a working hypothesis. But if a modest fraction of the disk matter is dark and distributed like the interstellar medium, as is consistent with limits deduced from K-giant and K-dwarf velocity distributions, the peak-to-trough flux ratio can increase to a factor of 4 even though the solar z amplitude is decreased. In that case the period can be as little as 30 Myr and the implied Oort population is smaller by a factor of 3. We should carefully reconsider the geological record as a potential discriminator of these options. 相似文献
8.
Eija Honkavaara Eero Ahokas Juha Hyypp Juha Jaakkola Harri Kaartinen Risto Kuittinen Lauri Markelin Kimmo Nurminen 《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2006,60(6):387
Test field system calibration will be a fundamental part of the future photogrammetric production line. Accurate calibration and performance evaluations are necessary for fully assessing the stability and accuracy of digital sensing techniques. In this paper, a method of comprehensive geometric calibration in a test field has been developed and empirically tested using eight image blocks collected with three UltraCamD digital large format photogrammetric cameras. Permanent photogrammetric test fields form the basis of the method. Important components of the method are determination of system parameters, evaluation of systematic errors, and assessment of geometric accuracy. The results showed that UltraCamD images contained systematic deformations that could not be modeled with single lens additional parameter models. Good point determination accuracy was obtained despite the systematic errors; the typical accuracy was 2–3 μm in image space in the horizontal coordinates and 0.05–0.09‰ of the object distance in height. One of the cameras had significantly poorer performance. In the worst cases, the horizontal accuracy was 5 μm in image space and the height accuracy was 0.18‰ of the object distance. The analog cameras gave better results than the UltraCamD, but the development of appropriate mathematical models for UltraCamD as well as improvements in digital sensors may change the situation in the near future. 相似文献
9.
Seasonal GCM-based temperature and precipitation projections for the end of the 21st century are presented for five European regions; projections are compared with corresponding estimates given by the PRUDENCE RCMs. For most of the six global GCMs studied, only responses to the SRES A2 and B2 forcing scenarios are available. To formulate projections for the A1FI and B1 forcing scenarios, a super-ensemble pattern-scaling technique has been developed. This method uses linear regression to represent the relationship between the local GCM-simulated response and the global mean temperature change simulated by a simple climate model. The method has several advantages: e.g., the noise caused by internal variability is reduced, and the information provided by GCM runs performed with various forcing scenarios is utilized effectively. The super-ensemble method proved especially useful when only one A2 and one B2 simulation is available for an individual GCM. Next, 95% probability intervals were constructed for regional temperature and precipitation change, separately for the four forcing scenarios, by fitting a normal distribution to the set of projections calculated by the GCMs. For the high-end of the A1FI uncertainty interval, temperature increases close to 10°C could be expected in the southern European summer and northern European winter. Conversely, the low-end warming estimates for the B1 scenario are ~ 1°C. The uncertainty intervals of precipitation change are quite broad, but the mean estimate is one of a marked increase in the north in winter and a drastic reduction in the south in summer. In the RCM simulations driven by a single global model, the spread of the temperature and precipitation projections tends to be smaller than that in the GCM simulations, but it is possible to reduce this disparity by employing several driving models for all RCMs. In the present suite of simulations, the difference between the mean GCM and RCM projections is fairly small, regardless of the number or driving models applied. 相似文献
10.
John A. Hudson John W. Cosgrove Kimmo Kemppainen Erik Johansson 《Engineering Geology》2011,117(3-4):246-258
Brittle deformation zones at the Olkiluoto nuclear repository site in western Finland play critical roles in the strength and hydrology of the host rock mass. We present a procedure implemented there for incorporating information on deformation zones obtained through boreholes into quantitative engineering design. First, ductile and brittle deformation zones are classified based on their characteristics in drillhole cores as brittle joint clusters, brittle fault zones, or semi-brittle fault zones, with an awareness of the geologic processes that caused the zones to develop as they did. Next, it is shown that the mechanical properties of the brittle deformation zones can be calculated by one of several methods, each of which has advantages and disadvantages. The site geology must be kept in mind at all stages to arrive at meaningful estimates of the mechanical properties of the deformation zones. 相似文献