排序方式： 共有25条查询结果，搜索用时 325 毫秒
1.
A copula-based multivariate analysis of Canadian RCM projected changes to flood characteristics for northeastern Canada 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In the present work, climate change impacts on three spring (March–June) flood characteristics, i.e. peak, volume and duration, for 21 northeast Canadian basins are evaluated, based on Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) simulations. Conventional univariate frequency analysis for each flood characteristic and copula based bivariate frequency analysis for mutually correlated pairs of flood characteristics (i.e. peak–volume, peak–duration and volume–duration) are carried out. While univariate analysis is focused on return levels of selected return periods (5-, 20- and 50-year), the bivariate analysis is focused on the joint occurrence probabilities P1 and P2 of the three pairs of flood characteristics, where P1 is the probability of any one characteristic in a pair exceeding its threshold and P2 is the probability of both characteristics in a pair exceeding their respective thresholds at the same time. The performance of CRCM is assessed by comparing ERA40 (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis) driven CRCM simulated flood statistics and univariate and bivariate frequency analysis results for the current 1970–1999 period with those observed at selected 16 gauging stations for the same time period. The Generalized Extreme Value distribution is selected as the marginal distribution for flood characteristics and the Clayton copula for developing bivariate distribution functions. The CRCM performs well in simulating mean, standard deviation, and 5-, 20- and 50-year return levels of flood characteristics. The joint occurrence probabilities are also simulated well by the CRCM. A five-member ensemble of the CRCM simulated streamflow for the current (1970–1999) and future (2041–2070) periods, driven by five different members of a Canadian Global Climate Model ensemble, are used in the assessment of projected changes, where future simulations correspond to A2 scenario. The results of projected changes, in general, indicate increases in the marginal values, i.e. return levels of flood characteristics, and the joint occurrence probabilities P1 and P2. It is found that the future marginal values of flood characteristics and P1 and P2 values corresponding to longer return periods will be affected more by anthropogenic climate change than those corresponding to shorter return periods but the former ones are subjected to higher uncertainties. 相似文献
2.
Leo Šeparović Adelina Alexandru René Laprise Andrey Martynov Laxmi Sushama Katja Winger Kossivi Tete Michel Valin 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):3167-3201
The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) was used to dynamically downscale two Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM) simulations of the transient climate change for the period 1950–2100, over North America, following the CORDEX protocol. The CRCM5 was driven by data from the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR CGCM simulations, based on the historical (1850–2005) and future (2006–2100) RCP4.5 radiative forcing scenario. The results show that the CRCM5 simulations reproduce relatively well the current-climate North American regional climatic features, such as the temperature and precipitation multiannual means, annual cycles and temporal variability at daily scale. A cold bias was noted during the winter season over western and southern portions of the continent. CRCM5-simulated precipitation accumulations at daily temporal scale are much more realistic when compared with its driving CGCM simulations, especially in summer when small-scale driven convective precipitation has a large contribution over land. The CRCM5 climate projections imply a general warming over the continent in the 21st century, especially over the northern regions in winter. The winter warming is mostly contributed by the lower percentiles of daily temperatures, implying a reduction in the frequency and intensity of cold waves. A precipitation decrease is projected over Central America and an increase over the rest of the continent. For the average precipitation change in summer however there is little consensus between the simulations. Some of these differences can be attributed to the uncertainties in CGCM-projected changes in the position and strength of the Pacific Ocean subtropical high pressure. 相似文献
3.
4.
High-speed solar wind streams (HSWS) were identified for solar cycles 22 and 23 (up to 2004). Preliminarily, HSWS were classified
in three groups according to their continuous period of occurrence. In the declining phase of solar cycle 23, 2003 is found
to be anomalous, showing a very large number of HSWS events of long duration (> ten days). We have studied the effect of HSWS
on the cosmic-ray intensity as well as their relationship with geomagnetic disturbance index Ap on yearly, daily, and hourly bases. The yearly average of solar-wind speed was also found to be maximum in 2003. Being within
the declining phase of solar activity, the occurrence of solar flares in 2003 is quite low. In particular during HSWS, no
solar flares have been observed. Associations with cosmic-ray changes do not support the notion that the HSWS are usually
effective in producing significant cosmic-ray decreases. Out of 12 HSWS events observed during the period 2002 (December)
to 2003, four events of significant cosmic-ray decreases at all the stations have been selected for further analysis. The
cosmic-ray intensity has been found to decrease during the first phase of the event (first five days of HSWS) at all three
neutron-monitor stations situated at different latitudes with different cutoff rigidities. The rigidity spectra of observed
decreases in cosmic-ray intensity for these four cases have been found to be significantly different than that of Fds (Forbush
decrease). In two cases the spectra are softer, whereas in the other two they are harder than that of Fds. However, if the
average of all four events is considered together then the spectra of the decrease in cosmic rays during HSWS exactly match
that of Fds. Such a result implies that initially individual events should be considered, instead of combining them together,
as was done earlier. The Ap index is also found to generally increase in the first phase of the event. However, the four events selected on the basis
of cosmic-ray decrease are not always associated with enhanced values of the Ap index. As such, the significance of our study is that further detailed investigations for much longer periods and on an event-by-event
basis is required to understand the effect of coronal-hole-associated HSWS. 相似文献
5.
J. A. Kamalakar K. V. S. Bhaskar A. S. Laxmi Prasad R. Ranjith K. A. Lohar R Venketeswaran T. K. Alex 《Journal of Earth System Science》2005,114(6):725-731
Lunar Laser Ranging Instrument (LLRI) proposed for the first Indian lunar mission Chandrayaan-1 is aimed to study the topography
of the Moon’s surface and its gravitational field by precisely measuring the altitude from a polar orbit around the Moon.
Altimetry data close to the poles of the Moon would also be available from the instrument, which was not covered by earlier
missions. This instrument supplements the terrain mapping camera and hyperspectral imager payloads on Chandrayaan-1. The instrument
consists of a diode pumped Nd:YAG pulsed laser transmitter having 10 nsec pulse width and a receiver system. The receiver
system features 17 cm diameter Ritchey—Chrétien collecting optics, Si Avalanche Photo Detector (APD), preamplifiers, constant
fraction discriminators, time-of-flight measurement unit and spacecraft interface. Altimeter resolution of better than 5 m
is targeted. The received signal strength of LLRI depends on laser pulse backscatter from the Moon’s surface. Moon’s surface
being a poor reflector, the choice of receiver size and its type and the selection of detector play an important role in getting
a good signal-to-noise ratio and in turn achieving the target resolution. At the same time, the spacecraft puts a limitation
on payload size and weight. This paper discusses the proposed LLRI system for Chandrayaan-1 and signal-to-noise ratio estimation. 相似文献
6.
The kinetics of hydrogen atom abstraction reactions of HFE-227pc by OH and Cl was studied by ab initio method. The structural optimization and frequency calculation of the titled compound and the species formed during the abstraction reactions were performed with density functional theory using hybrid meta density functional MPWB1K with 6–31?+?G(d,p) basis set. The energy of the species was further refined by making a single point energy calculation at G3B3 level of theory. The standard enthalpies of formation of reactant and the radical formed after H-atom abstraction was calculated using isodesmic method. The rate constants of abstraction reactions were calculated using Conventional Transition State Theory (CTST) and were found to be 1.5?×?10?15 and 0.53?×?10?16 cm3molecule?1 s?1 for OH and Cl respectively. The calculated value for the abstraction by OH is close to the experimental value of 2.26?×?10?15 cm3molecule?1 s?1 whereas the same for Cl is found to be about five times lower than that of 2.70?×?10?16 cm3molecule?1 s?1. The theoretical studies yielded the enthalpies of formation and the rate constants that are vital in determining the lifetime of HFE-227pc. 相似文献
7.
Laxmi Ramasubramanian 《Transactions in GIS》1999,3(4):359-380
Both Geographic Information Systems (GIS) implementation successes and failures can be attributed to many factors, some that have little or nothing to do with the technology. While the discourse in the developed world has shifted from examining GIS implementation in isolation, developing countries appear to be still bogged down by many institutional barriers that impede implementation. In this context, an integrative implementation framework that takes into consideration politics and policy issues is developed to understand, explain, and assess GIS implementation in developing countries. The uniqueness of country-specific problems is acknowledged and juxtaposed against a body of theory in order to evaluate GIS implementation efforts. Based on reflective accounts of implementation efforts in three developing countries, four overarching characteristics of successful GIS implementation across country contexts are identified. These include clarity in problem definition, forging strategic alliances, incremental planning, and developing local knowledge. GIS implementation is likely to occur only when individuals and organisations creatively challenge existing norms, organisational defensive routines, and inefficient bureaucratic practices. Therefore, successful GIS implementation in developing countries is a likely outcome of critical reflective practice that relies on the capacity of empowered individuals and groups rather than solely on organisational structures. 相似文献
8.
9.
René Laprise Leticia Hernández-Díaz Kossivi Tete Laxmi Sushama Leo Šeparović Andrey Martynov Katja Winger Michel Valin 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):3219-3246
Following the CORDEX experimental protocol, climate simulations and climate-change projections for Africa were made with the new fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). The model was driven by two Global Climate Models (GCMs), one developed by the Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie and the other by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, for the period 1950–2100 under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. The performance of the CRCM5 simulations for current climate is discussed first and compared also with a reanalysis-driven CRCM5 simulation. It is shown that errors in lateral boundary conditions and sea-surface temperature from the GCMs have deleterious consequences on the skill of the CRCM5 at reproducing specific regional climate features such as the West African Monsoon and the annual cycle of precipitation. For other aspects of the African climate however the regional model is able to add value compared to the simulations of the driving GCMs. Climate-change projections for periods until the end of this century are also analysed. All models project a warming throughout the twenty-first century, although the details of the climate changes differ notably between model projections, especially for precipitation changes. It is shown that the climate changes projected by CRCM5 often differ noticeably from those of the driving GCMs. 相似文献
10.
Deforestation Trends and Spatial Modelling of its Drivers in the Dry Temperate Forests of Northern Pakistan–A Case Study of Chitral 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Khuram Shehzad Faisal M. Qamer M. S. R. Murthy Sawaid Abbas Laxmi D. Bhatta 《山地科学学报》2014,11(5):1192-1207
Deforestation is a major environmental challenge in the mountain areas of Pakistan. The study assessed trends in the forest cover in Chitral tehsil over the last two decades using supervised land cover classification of Landsat TM satellite images from 1992, 2000, and 2009, with a maximum likelihood algorithm. In 2009, the forest cover was 10.3% of the land area of Chitral(60,000 ha). The deforestation rate increased from 0.14% per annum in 1992–2000 to 0.54% per annum in 2000–2009, with 3,759 ha forest lost over the 17 years. The spatial drivers of deforestation were investigated using a cellular automaton modelling technique to project future forest conditions. Accessibility(elevation, slope), population density, distance to settlements, and distance to administrative boundary were strongly associated with neighbourhood deforestation. A model projection showed a further loss of 23% of existing forest in Chitral tehsil by 2030, and degradation of 8%, if deforestation continues at the present rate. Arandu Union Council, with 2212 households, will lose 85% of its forest. Local communities have limited income resources and high poverty and are heavily dependent on non-timber forest products for their livelihoods. Continued deforestation will further worsen their livelihood conditions, thus improved conservation efforts are essential. 相似文献