Time to leave: an analysis of travel times during the approach and landfall of Hurricane Irma     

Marasco  David  Murray-Tuite  Pamela  Guikema  Seth  Logan  Tom 《Natural Hazards》2020,103(2):2459-2487

Hurricane Irma caused widespread evacuation activity across Florida and some of its neighboring states in September of 2017. The researchers gathered estimated travel times from the Google Distance Matrix API over about a month to identify and analyze evacuation periods on roads in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina during this time. Travel time data were mathematically adjusted to show more realistic estimations. Both sets of travel times were then graphed, with the assumption that elevated travel times prior to and during hurricane landfall were indicative of evacuation activity. The study generally corroborated the well-established daytime evacuation preference. However, not all evacuation periods followed the daytime travel preference, and at least one nighttime evacuation may have been caused by flooding. In another case, later elevated travel coincided with significant power loss. Finally, the Florida data suggest that most of the evacuation traffic departed before local jurisdictions’ recommended evacuation start times.

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Character and origin of De Geer moraines in the Seacoast region of New Hampshire,USA          下载免费PDF全文

Samantha N. Sinclair  Joseph M. Licciardi  Seth W. Campbell  Brian M. Madore 《第四纪科学杂志》2018,33(2):225-237

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Event-based classification for global study of river flood generating processes     

Lina Stein  Francesca Pianosi  Ross Woods 《水文研究》2020,34(7):1514-1529

Better understanding of which processes generate floods in a catchment can improve flood frequency analysis and potentially climate change impacts assessment. However, current flood classification methods are either not transferable across locations or do not provide event-based information. We therefore developed a location-independent, event-based flood classification methodology that is applicable in different climates and returns a classification of all flood events, including extreme ones. We use precipitation time series and very simply modelled soil moisture and snowmelt as inputs for a decision tree. A total of 113,635 events in 4155 catchments worldwide were classified into one of five hydro-climatological flood generating processes: short rain, long rain, excess rainfall, snowmelt and a combination of rain and snow. The new classification was tested for its robustness and evaluated with available information; these two tests are often lacking in current flood classification approaches. According to the evaluation, the classification is mostly successful and indicates excess rainfall as the most common dominant process. However, the dominant process is not very informative in most catchments, as there is a high at-site variability in flood generating processes. This is particularly relevant for the estimation of extreme floods which diverge from their usual flood generation pattern, especially in the United Kingdom, Northern France, Southeastern United States, and India.  相似文献   

Chemical Procedures for Rhenium Extraction from Geological Samples: Optimising the Anion Resin Bead Clean‐up Step     

Gang Yang  Aaron Zimmerman  Nicole C. Hurtig  Svetoslav V. Georgiev  Vineet Goswami  Judith L. Hannah  Holly J. Stein 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2020,44(2):231-242

Rhenium–osmium geochronometry for samples with low Re and complex matrices requires improved Re extraction methods. Here, we investigate plausible controls on efficiency and efficacy of Re extraction during our anion resin bead purification. Four different protocols are compared, each isolating a single variable to test. Rhenium concentrations for solutions at each step of each protocol document differences in chemical recovery/yield. The negative‐thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (N‐TIMS) signal intensity serves as a proxy for Re yield and purity. These data document correlations between the N‐TIMS signal intensity and (a) the duration of anion resin bead conditioning prior to loading with Re‐bearing solution, and (b) both duration and strength of nitric acid used during rinsing of the Re‐loaded anion resin bead. The optimal protocol improved Re signal intensity around fourteen times compared with our current Re extraction protocol, an aggregate of 2.4 times improvement in chemical recovery (yield) and 5.8 times improvement in emission efficiency (purity). Repeated N‐TIMS isotopic measurements on our in‐house Re standard solution (1407) verify that our optimal protocol‐3 does not fractionate Re isotopes. The improved anion resin bead method considerably lowers the Re detection limit and allows Re‐Os isotopic analysis of picogram‐level Re hosted in geological samples with complex matrices.  相似文献   

Timing of porphyry (Cu-Mo) and base metal (Zn-Pb-Ag-Cu) mineralisation in a magmatic-hydrothermal system—Morococha district,Peru     

Honza Catchpole  Kalin Kouzmanov  Aldo Bendezú  Maria Ovtcharova  Richard Spikings  Holly Stein  Lluís Fontboté 《Mineralium Deposita》2015,50(8):895-922

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Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

GAO Yongqi  SUN Jianqi  LI Fei  HE Shengping  Stein SANDVEN  YAN Qing  ZHANG Zhongshi  Katja LOHMANN  Noel KEENLYSIDE  Tore FUREVIK  SUO Lingling 《大气科学进展》2015,32(1):92-114

The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and has shown significant climate change in recent decades,including the Arctic warming and decline of Arctic sea-ice extent and thickness. In contrast to the Arctic warming and reduction of Arctic sea ice, Europe, East Asia and North America have experienced anomalously cold conditions, with record snowfall during recent years. In this paper, we review current understanding of the sea-ice impacts on the Eurasian climate.Paleo, observational and modelling studies are covered to summarize several major themes, including: the variability of Arctic sea ice and its controls; the likely causes and apparent impacts of the Arctic sea-ice decline during the satellite era,as well as past and projected future impacts and trends; the links and feedback mechanisms between the Arctic sea ice and the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation, the recent Eurasian cooling, winter atmospheric circulation, summer precipitation in East Asia, spring snowfall over Eurasia, East Asian winter monsoon, and midlatitude extreme weather; and the remote climate response(e.g., atmospheric circulation, air temperature) to changes in Arctic sea ice. We conclude with a brief summary and suggestions for future research.  相似文献   

Black dimensional stones: geology, technical properties and deposit characterization of the dolerites from Uruguay   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Manuela Morales Demarco  Pedro Oyhantçabal  Karl-Jochen Stein  Siegfried Siegesmund 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,63(7-8):1879-1909

Dimensional stones with a black color occupy a prominent place on the international market. Uruguayan dolerite dikes of andesitic and andesitic–basaltic composition are mined for commercial blocks of black dimensional stones. A total of 16 dikes of both compositions were studied and samples collected for geochemical and petrographical analysis. Color measurements were performed on different black dimensional stones in order to compare them with the Uruguayan dolerites. Samples of the two commercial varieties (Absolute Black and Moderate Black) were obtained for petrophysical analysis (e.g. density, porosity, uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength, etc.). Detailed structural analyses were performed in several quarries. Geochemistry and petrography determines the intensity of the black color. The Uruguayan dolerite Absolute Black is the darkest black dimensional stone analyzed in this study. The petrophysical properties of Uruguayan dolerites make them one of the highest quality black dimensional stones. Structural analyses show that five joint sets have been recognized: two sub-vertical joints, one horizontal and two diagonal. These joint sets are one of the most important factors that control the deposits, since they control the block size distribution and the amount of waste material.  相似文献   

Numerical modeling of cyclic mobility based on fuzzy-set concepts in plasticity theory     

Yu Bao  Stein Sture 《Computers and Geotechnics》2011

In this paper, the application of an efficient, transparent and accurate kinematic-cyclic constitutive model based on the fuzzy-set concepts and incremental plasticity theory is presented to show its capability in modeling cyclic mobility of saturated granular soil. The nature and kinematic mechanism of the membership functions in the fuzzy-set constitutive model are illustrated. The model’s capability of modeling soil dilatancy is investigated. Important features of volume change and pore water pressure build-up related to soil cyclic mobility are captured. The formulation of the proposed model is relatively simple and it can be readily implemented in finite element codes. The enhanced fuzzy-set model is capable of simulating ground motion problems particularly related to cyclic mobility, soil liquefaction, and spreading behavior.  相似文献   

余震密度随距离的衰减不代表动态应力触发过程     

K.R.-Dinger  R.S.Stein  S.Toda  魏志恒  冯蔚 《世界地震译丛》2011,(3)

分辨多数余震和后续主震是由静态应力触发(Stein,1999;Todaetal,2005;Parsons,2002)还是动态应力触发(Hilletal,1993;kilb,2003;Brodsky and Prejean,2005;Gomberg and Johnson,2005;Hill and Prejean,2007),对理解地震内在作用和预测地震危险性是有必要的(Freed,2005)。Felzer和Brodsky(2006)分析了2≤M<3和3≤M<4级主震后5min内余震的空间分布情况,发现距主震50km范围内M≥2余震具有特定的幂律衰减关系,且衰减曲线的斜率为-1.35。据此,他们认为余震随距离的衰减只能用动态触发来解释。基于上述假设我们进行了一系列的检验,但没有一个可通过检验,进而,本文中对这种衰减关系提出了另外一种解释。在距离2≤M<3主震300m以外的地方,主震前5min内的地震活动性衰减与主震后5min内的衰减没有显著的区别,表明主震对它静态触发区域以外的地方没有影响。表征余震基本特性的大森随时间衰减关系在距离主震10km以外的地方是不存在的。最后,发现在主震波前未到达之前的余震中发现了...  相似文献   

Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments     

Royce A. Francis  Stefanie M. Falconi  Roshanak Nateghi  Seth D. Guikema 《Climatic change》2011,106(1):31-55

One effect of climate change may be increased hurricane frequency or intensity due to changes in atmospheric and geoclimatic factors. It has been hypothesized that wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening measures may improve infrastructure resilience to increased hurricane frequency and intensity. This paper describes a parametric decision model used to assess the tradeoffs between wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening for electric power networks. We employ a hybrid economic input–output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) model to capture: construction costs and life-cycle emissions for transitioning from the current electric power network configuration to a hardened network configuration; construction costs and life-cycle emissions associated with wetland restoration; and the intrinsic value of wetland restoration. Uncertainty is accounted for probabilistically through a Monte Carlo hurricane simulation model and parametric sensitivity analysis for the number of hurricanes expected to impact the project area during the project cycle and the rate of wetland storm surge attenuation. Our analysis robustly indicates that wetland restoration and undergrounding of electric power network infrastructure is not preferred to the “do-nothing” option of keeping all power lines overhead without wetland protection. However, we suggest a few items for future investigation. For example, our results suggest that, for the small case study developed, synergistic benefits of simultaneously hardening infrastructure and restoring wetlands may be limited, although research using a larger test bed while integrating additional costs may find an enhanced value of wetland restoration for disaster loss mitigation.  相似文献