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Making local futures tangible—Synthesizing, downscaling, and visualizing climate change scenarios for participatory capacity building 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Alison Shaw Stephen Sheppard Sarah Burch David Flanders Arnim Wiek Jeff Carmichael John Robinson Stewart Cohen 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(4):447-463
Local in its causes and global in its impacts, climate change still poses an unresolved challenge for scientists, politicians, entrepreneurs, and citizens. Climate change research is largely global in focus, aims at enhanced understanding, and is driven by experts, all of which seem to be insufficient to anchor climate change action in regional and local contexts. We present results from a participatory scenario study conducted in collaboration with the municipality of Delta in SW British Columbia, Canada. This study applies a participatory capacity building approach for climate change action at the local level where the sources of emissions and the mechanisms of adaptation reside and where climate change is meaningful to decision-makers and stakeholders alike. The multi-scale scenario approach consists of synthesizing global climate change scenarios, downscaling them to the regional and local level, and finally visualizing alternative climate scenarios out to 2100 in 3D views of familiar, local places. We critically discuss the scenarios produced and the strengths and weaknesses of the approach applied. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTBased on research into multiple types of climate change mitigation and adaptation (CCMA) projects and policies in Cambodia, this paper documents intersecting social and environmental conflicts that bear striking resemblance to well-documented issues in the history of development projects. Using data from three case studies, we highlight the ways that industrial development and CCMA initiatives are intertwined in both policy and project creation, and how this confluence is creating potentials for maladaptive outcomes. Each case study involves partnerships between international institutions and the national government, each deploys CCMA as either a primary or supporting legitimation, and each failed to adhere to institutional and/or internationally recognized standards of justice. In Cambodia, mismanaged projects are typically blamed on the kleptocratic and patrimonial governance system. We show how such blame obscures the collusion of international partners, who also sidestep their own safeguards, and ignores the potential for maladaptation at the project level and the adverse social and environmental impacts of the policies themselves.Key policy insights
Initiatives to mitigate or adapt to climate change look very much like the development projects that caused climate change: Extreme caution must be exercised to ensure policies and projects do not exacerbate the conditions driving climate change.
Safeguards ‘on paper’ are insufficient to avoid negative impacts and strict accountability mechanisms must be put in place.
Academic researchers can be part of that accountability mechanism through case study reports, policy briefs, technical facilitation to help ensure community needs are met and safeguards are executed as written.
Impacts beyond the project scale must be assessed to avoid negative consequences for social and ecological systems at the landscape level.
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While the recent emergence of a global land rush has initiated large debates and conflicts over the use and access to land, further investigation into the underlying drivers is required to enhance the understanding of the potential trajectories of the land grab phenomenon. This paper takes a biophysical perspective and explores how declining fossil stocks and a global transition towards renewable energies ultimately drive the land rush. The paper addresses, in qualitative terms, how societal needs for land change with different patterns of societal energy metabolism. The potential spatial expansions of renewables are illustrated in quantitative terms, based on the power density concept and energy provision forecasts for the year 2020. The transition from an energy system based on fossils stocks, with high power densities, to one based on renewables, with low power densities, drastically boosts societal demand for land. This drives the land rush directly through land acquisitions for the expansion of energy systems. The energy transition also drives the land rush indirectly, in particular through food security threats motivated by the growing competition over farmland uses and changes in crop supply. Although currently fossil stocks are still relatively abundant, future declines are expected to trigger the demand for land to even greater extents. Given the inevitability of the energy transition, we believe that the land rush will have persistence, bearing long-term consequences for land use and struggles over access to land. 相似文献
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To better understand (and correct for) the factors affecting the estimation of attenuation (Q), we simulate subsurface wave propagation with the Weyl/Sommerfeld integral. The complete spherical wavefield emanating from a P‐wave point source surrounded by a homogeneous, isotropic and attenuative medium is thus computed. In a resulting synthetic vertical seismic profile, we observe near‐field and far‐field responses and a 90° phase rotation between them. Depth dependence of the magnitude spectra in these two depth regions is distinctly different. The logarithm of the magnitude spectra shows a linear dependence on frequency in the far‐field but not in those depth regions where the near‐field becomes significant. Near‐field effects are one possible explanation for large positive and even negative Q‐factors in the shallow section that may be estimated from real vertical seismic profile data when applying the spectral ratio method. We outline a near‐field compensation technique that can reduce errors in the resultant Q estimates. 相似文献
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