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排序方式: 共有147条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Alexandre Forest Jean-Éric Tremblay Yves Gratton Johannie Martin Jonathan Gagnon Gérald Darnis Makoto Sampei Louis Fortier Mathieu Ardyna Michel Gosselin Hiroshi Hattori Dan Nguyen Roxane Maranger Dolors Vaqué Cèlia Marrasé Carlos Pedrós-Alió Amélie Sallon Christine Michel Colleen Kellogg Jody Deming Elizabeth Shadwick Helmuth Thomas Heike Link Philippe Archambault Dieter Piepenburg 《Progress in Oceanography》2011,91(4):410-436
Major pathways of biogenic carbon (C) flow are resolved for the planktonic food web of the flaw lead polynya system of the Amundsen Gulf (southeast Beaufort Sea, Arctic Ocean) in spring-summer 2008. This period was relevant to study the effect of climate change on Arctic marine ecosystems as it was characterized by unusually low ice cover and warm sea surface temperature. Our synthesis relied on a mass balance estimate of gross primary production (GPP) of 52.5 ± 12.5 g C m−2 calculated using the drawdown of nitrate and dissolved inorganic C, and a seasonal f-ratio of 0.64. Based on chlorophyll a biomass, we estimated that GPP was dominated by phytoplankton (93.6%) over ice algae (6.4%) and by large cells (>5 μm, 67.6%) over small cells (<5 μm, 32.4%). Ancillary in situ data on bacterial production, zooplankton biomass and respiration, herbivory, bacterivory, vertical particle fluxes, pools of particulate and dissolved organic carbon (POC, DOC), net community production (NCP), as well as selected variables from the literature were used to evaluate the fate of size-fractionated GPP in the ecosystem. The structure and functioning of the planktonic food web was elucidated through inverse analysis using the mean GPP and the 95% confidence limits of every other field measurement as lower and upper constraints. The model computed a net primary production of 49.2 g C m−2, which was directly channeled toward dominant calanoid copepods (i.e. Calanus hyperboreus 20%, Calanus glacialis 10%, and Metridia longa 10%), other mesozooplankton (12%), microzooplankton (14%), detrital POC (18%), and DOC (16%). Bacteria required 29.9 g C m−2, a demand met entirely by the DOC derived from local biological activities. The ultimate C outflow comprised respiration fluxes (82% of the initial GPP), a small sedimentation (3%), and a modest residual C flow (15%) resulting from NCP, dilution and accumulation. The sinking C flux at the model limit depth (395 m) supplied 60% of the estimated benthic C demand (2.8 g C m−2), suggesting that the benthos relied partly on other C sources within the bottom boundary layer to fuel its activity. In summary, our results illustrate that the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice promotes the growth of pelagic communities in the Amundsen Gulf, which benefited from a ∼80% increase in GPP in spring-summer 2008 when compared to 2004 – a year of average ice conditions and relatively low GPP. However, 53% of the secondary production was generated within the microbial food web, the net ecological efficiency of zooplankton populations was not particularly high (13.4%), and the quantity of biogenic C available for trophic export remained low (6.6 g C m−2). Hence it is unlikely that the increase in lower food web productivity, such as the one observed in our study, could support new harvestable fishery resources in the offshore Beaufort Sea domain. 相似文献
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Charles A. Stock Michael A. Alexander Nicholas A. Bond Keith M. Brander William W.L. Cheung Enrique N. Curchitser Thomas L. Delworth John P. Dunne Stephen M. Griffies Melissa A. Haltuch Jonathan A. Hare Anne B. Hollowed Patrick Lehodey Simon A. Levin Jason S. Link Kenneth A. Rose Ryan R. Rykaczewski Jorge L. Sarmiento Ronald J. Stouffer Franklin B. Schwing Francisco E. Werner 《Progress in Oceanography》2011,88(1-4):1-27
The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models. 相似文献
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A cross-ecosystem comparison of spatial and temporal patterns of covariation in the recruitment of functionally analogous fish stocks 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Bernard A. Megrey Jonathan A. Hare William T. Stockhausen Are Dommasnes Harald Gjster William Overholtz Sarah Gaichas Georg Skaret Jannike Falk-Petersen Jason S. Link Kevin D. Friedland 《Progress in Oceanography》2009,81(1-4):63
Temporal and spatial patterns of recruitment (R) and spawning stock biomass (S) variability were compared among functionally analogous species and similar feeding guilds from six marine ecosystems. Data were aggregated into four regions including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, the eastern Bering Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska. Variability was characterized by calculating coefficients of variation and anomalies for three response variables: ln(R), ln(R/S), and stock–recruit model residuals. Patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in the response variables were examined among and between ecosystems, between- and within-ocean basins and among functionally analogous species groups using pair-wise correlation analysis corrected for within-time series autocorrelation, multivariate cross-correlation analyses and regime shift detectors. Time series trends in response variables showed consistent within basin similarities and consistent and coherent differences between the Atlantic and Pacific basin ecosystems. Regime shift detection algorithms identified two broad-scale regime shift time periods for the pelagic feeding guild (1972–1976 and 1999–2002) and possibly one for the benthic feeding guild (1999–2002). No spatial patterns in response variable coefficients of variation were observed. Results from multivariate cross-correlation analysis showed similar trends. The data suggest common external factors act in synchrony on stocks within ocean basins but temporal stock patterns, often of the same species or functional group, between basins change in opposition to each other. Basin-scale results (similar within but different between) suggest that the two geographically broad areas are connected by unknown mechanisms that, depending on the year, may influence the two basins in opposite ways. This work demonstrates that commonalities and synchronies in recruitment fluctuations can be found across geographically distant ecosystems but biophysical causes of the fluctuations remain difficult to identify. 相似文献
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A logarithmic transformation may be used to improve the efficiency of estimates of the mean when observations follow the lognormal distribution. But if this transformation is applied to observations that follow another distribution, bias may be introduced. We consider some consequences of erroneously applying lognormal estimation theory and demonstrate that biased estimates may be obtained for certain classes of distributions. Illustrations of bias obtained in gold sampling are given. 相似文献
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Most-probable-number (MPN) dilution series were used to enumerate and isolate bacteria from bulk water, suspended aggregates, the oxic layer, and the oxic–anoxic transition zone of the sediment of a tidal flat ecosystem in the southern North Sea. The heterotrophic aerobic bacteria were able to grow on agar-agar, alginate, cellulose, chitin, dried and ground Fucus vesiculosus, Marine Broth 2216, palmitate, and starch. MPN counts of bulk water and aggregate samples ranged between 0.18?×?101 and 1.1?×?106 cells per milliliter and those of the sediment surface and the transition zone between 0.8?×?101 and 5.1?×?107 cells per gram dry weight. Marine Broth and F. vesiculosus yielded the highest values of all substrates tested and corresponded to 2.3–32% of 4,6-diamidinophenyl indole cell counts. Strains of seven phylogenetic classes were obtained: Actinobacteria, Bacilli, α- and γ-Proteobacteria, Sphingobacteria, Flavobacteria, and Planctomycetacia. Only with agar-agar as substrate could organisms of all seven classes be isolated. 相似文献
10.
The integrated assessment model FUND 2.8n is applied in an assessment to estimate the magnitude of the general market and non-market impacts of temperature changes
caused by a possible shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC). The monetized impacts of this change in environmental
conditions are determined for 207 individual countries for two scenarios: one warming scenario in which the THC weakens but
remains intact, and another in which the THC breaks down. Eight different response patterns are identified. The dominant pattern
is that a THC shutdown has an offsetting effect on the underlying warming trend. Depending on whether the impacts of warming
are initially beneficial or detrimental, the economic effects of a THC shutdown show distinct regional variability. Key economic
sectors affected are water resources and energy consumption, as well as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases among health
impacts. The maximum national impact of a shutdown of the THC turns out to be of the magnitude of a few per cent of GDP, but
the average global impact is much smaller. The results indicate that the temperature effect of a THC shutdown does not create
an insurmountable economic threat on a global scale, but may cause severe damages to individual countries. However, a consideration
of other climatic impacts such as precipitation and sea level changes is likely to alter the identified trends in economic
development. 相似文献