Simulation of individual particle movement in a gravel streambed     

J. Mikael Malmaeus  Marwan A. Hassan 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2002,27(1):81-97

A two‐dimensional simulation model of travel distances of individual particles in a gravel‐bed river is presented. The model is based on a number of rules, which include particle size, entrainment, trajectory, distance of movement and entrapment. Particle interactions are controlled by resistance fields defined about each obstacle and critical elevation defined in the model. Resistance fields, particle dropping and critical elevation rules control particle interactions. The interaction rules cause the particles to develop pebble clusters, stone cells and transverse structures (transverse ribs). The simulated travel distances of individual particles are consistent with reported field results. Individual particle travel distances were simulated using two different models; one without interactions between the individual particles and the stationary bed and one with interactions. The case without interactions demonstrates the random nature of sediment transport, and narrow ranges of travel distances. Wider ranges of travel distances, similar to those for natural situations, were obtained for the cases with interactions. The more intense the interaction between the mobile stones and the stationary ones, the wider the range of distances of travel for a given particle size. Modelling the mean travel distance yielded a result similar to that published previously, which was based on empirical data. Well developed bed‐surface structures were obtained for relatively poorly sorted sediment with intense interactions between particles. Transverse structures developed when relatively large particles were allowed to move. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estuarine influence on survival rates of coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) released from hatcheries on the U.S. Pacific coast     

A. Magnusson  R. Hilborn 《Estuaries and Coasts》2003,26(4):1094-1103

While it has long been known that Pacific salmon use estuarine habitat, it has proven much harder to establish that the loss of estuarine habitat results in reduced survival. We used coded-wire tagging of hatchery fish to estimate the survival from release until maturity and related this survival to several indicators of estuarine condition. We found a significant relationship between the survival of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and the percentage of the estuary that is in pristine condition, but no significant relationship for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch). This supports field observations that chinook salmon use estuarine habitat much more than coho salmon and confirms that the loss of estuarine habitat results in lower survival of chinook salmon.  相似文献   

Fracture Mechanics Modelling of an In Situ Concrete Spalling Experiment     

Topias Siren  Lauri Uotinen  Mikael Rinne  Baotang Shen 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2015,48(4):1423-1438

  相似文献   

An intercomparison of seawater filtration procedures     

J.M. Bewers  P.A. Yeats  S. Westerlund  B. Magnusson  D. Schmidt  H. Zehle  S.S. Berman  A. Mykytiuk  J.C. Duinker  R.F. Nolting  R.G. Smith  H.L. Windom 《Marine pollution bulletin》1985,16(7):277-281

Filtration systems, used for the preparation of coastal seawater samples for trace analysis, have been intercompared to determine the extent of contamination arising during the filtration process. The results show that all the systems intercompared are able to provide uncontaminated filtrates for copper, nickel, cobalt and manganese and, with two exceptions, for cadmium and iron, at levels that would be encountered in uncontaminated coastal waters.  相似文献   

Snow accumulation distribution inferred from time‐lapse photography and simple modelling     

Daniel Farinotti  Jan Magnusson  Matthias Huss  Andreas Bauder 《水文研究》2010,24(15):2087-2097

The spatial and temporal distribution of snow accumulation is complex and significantly influences the hydrological characteristics of mountain catchments. Many snow redistribution processes, such as avalanching, slushflow or wind drift, are controlled by topography, but their modelling remains challenging. In situ measurements of snow accumulation are laborious and generally have a coarse spatial or temporal resolution. In this respect, time‐lapse photography shows itself as a powerful tool for collecting information at relatively low cost and without the need for direct field access. In this paper, the snow accumulation distribution of an Alpine catchment is inferred by adjusting a simple snow accumulation model combined with a temperature index melt model to match the modelled melt‐out pattern evolution to the pattern monitored during an ablation season through terrestrial oblique photography. The comparison of the resulting end‐of‐winter snow water equivalent distribution with direct measurements shows that the achieved accuracy is comparable with that obtained with an inverse distance interpolation of the point measurements. On average over the ablation season, the observed melt‐out pattern can be reproduced correctly in 93% of the area visible from the fixed camera. The relations between inferred snow accumulation distribution and topographic variables indicate large scatter. However, a significant correlation with local slope is found and terrain curvature is detected as a factor limiting the maximal snow accumulation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On the dependence of ENSO simulation on the coupled model mean state     

L. Magnusson  M. Alonso-Balmaseda  F. Molteni 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1509-1525

Systematic model error remains a difficult problem for seasonal forecasting and climate predictions. An error in the mean state could affect the variability of the system. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the mean state on the properties of ENSO. A set of coupled decadal integrations have been conducted, where the mean state and its seasonal cycle have been modified by applying flux correction to the momentum-flux and a combination of heat and momentum fluxes. It is shown that correcting the mean state and the seasonal cycle improves the amplitude of SST inter-annual variability and also the penetration of the ENSO signal into the troposphere and the spatial distribution of the ENSO teleconnections are improved. An analysis of a multivariate PDF of ENSO shows clearly that the flux correction affects the mean, variance, skewness and tails of the distribution. The changes in the tails of the distribution are particularly noticeable in the case of precipitation, showing that without the flux correction the model is unable to reproduce the frequency of large events. For the inter-annual variability the momentum-flux correction alone has a large impact, while the additional heat-flux correction is important for the teleconnections. These results suggest that the current forecasts practices of removing the forecast bias a-posteriori or anomaly initialisation are by no means optimal, since they can not deal with the strong nonlinear interactions. A consequence of the results presented here is that the predictability on annual time-ranges could be higher than currently achieved. Whether or not the correction of the model mean state by some sort of flux correction leads to better forecasts needs to be addressed. In any case, flux correction may be a powerful tool for diagnosing coupled model errors and predictability studies.  相似文献   

Trace metals in the Göta river estuary     

Lars-Göran Danielsson  Bertil Magnusson  Stig Westerlund  Kerong Zhang 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1983,17(1):73-85

The concentrations of the trace metals Cd, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb and Zn in the Göta River estuary have been investigated. The following metal fractions have been determined: acid-leachable, dissolved, labile and particulate.The estuary represents a salt wedge type estuary and is situated in a densely populated region of Sweden. The metal concentrations found for the dissolved fraction is in the range of what can be considered as background levels for freshwater. It is difficult to evaluate any estuarine processes other than conservative mixing for Cd, Cu, Ni and Zn. The dissolved levels in the freshwater end member are Cd, 9–25 ngl^?1; Cu, 1·1–1·4 μgl^?1; Fe, 20–75 μg l^?1: Ni, 0·7–0·9 μg l^?1: Pb 0·09–0·2 μg l^?1; and Zn, 6–7 μg l^?1:The results from the acid-leachable fraction show that at high suspended load the particles sediment in the river mouth. The trace metal levels in this fraction are subject to large variations.  相似文献   

Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mikael H??k  Junchen Li  Kersti Johansson  Simon Snowden 《Natural Resources Research》2012,21(1):23-41

The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems’ growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid ‘oil boom’-development—i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events—their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.  相似文献   

Asteroid orbital ranging using Markov‐Chain Monte Carlo     

Dagmara Oszkiewicz  Karri Muinonen  Jenni Virtanen  Mikael Granvik 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(12):1897-1904

Abstract— We present a novel Markov‐Chain Monte‐Carlo orbital ranging method (MCMC) for poorly observed single‐apparition asteroids with two or more observations. We examine the Bayesian a posteriori probability density of the orbital elements using methods that map a volume of orbits in the orbital‐element phase space. In particular, we use the MCMC method to sample the phase space in an unbiased way. We study the speed of convergence and also the efficiency of the new method for the initial orbit computation problem. We present the results of the MCMC ranging method applied to three objects from different dynamical groups. We conclude that the method is applicable to initial orbit computation for near‐Earth, main‐belt, and transneptunian objects.  相似文献   

Applying spatial regression to evaluate risk factors for microbiological contamination of urban groundwater sources in Juba,South Sudan     

Emma Engström  Ulla Mörtberg  Anders Karlström  Mikael Mangold 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(4):1077-1091

This study developed methodology for statistically assessing groundwater contamination mechanisms. It focused on microbial water pollution in low-income regions. Risk factors for faecal contamination of groundwater-fed drinking-water sources were evaluated in a case study in Juba, South Sudan. The study was based on counts of thermotolerant coliforms in water samples from 129 sources, collected by the humanitarian aid organisation Médecins Sans Frontières in 2010. The factors included hydrogeological settings, land use and socio-economic characteristics. The results showed that the residuals of a conventional probit regression model had a significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I?=?3.05, I-stat?=?9.28); therefore, a spatial model was developed that had better goodness-of-fit to the observations. The most significant factor in this model (p-value 0.005) was the distance from a water source to the nearest Tukul area, an area with informal settlements that lack sanitation services. It is thus recommended that future remediation and monitoring efforts in the city be concentrated in such low-income regions. The spatial model differed from the conventional approach: in contrast with the latter case, lowland topography was not significant at the 5% level, as the p-value was 0.074 in the spatial model and 0.040 in the traditional model. This study showed that statistical risk-factor assessments of groundwater contamination need to consider spatial interactions when the water sources are located close to each other. Future studies might further investigate the cut-off distance that reflects spatial autocorrelation. Particularly, these results advise research on urban groundwater quality.  相似文献