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The influence of the Arctic atmosphere on Northern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric weather and climate is explored by comparing the skill of two sets of 14-day weather forecast experiments using the ECMWF model with and without relaxation of the Arctic atmosphere towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data during the integration. Two pathways are identified along which the Arctic influences midlatitude weather: a pronounced one over Asia and Eastern Europe, and a secondary one over North America. In general, linkages are found to be strongest(weakest) during boreal winter(summer) when the amplitude of stationary planetary waves over the Northern Hemisphere is strongest(weakest). No discernible Arctic impact is found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific region, which is consistent with predominantly southwesterly flow. An analysis of the flow-dependence of the linkages shows that anomalous northerly flow conditions increase the Arctic influence on midlatitude weather over the continents. Specifically, an anomalous northerly flow from the Kara Sea towards West Asia leads to cold surface temperature anomalies not only over West Asia but also over Eastern and Central Europe. Finally, the results of this study are discussed in the light of potential midlatitude benefits of improved Arctic prediction capabilities. 相似文献
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Farès Kessasra Mohamed Mesbah Zineb Khemissa Noussaiba Bouab Soumia Khaled-Khodja Hanane Lamari 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(16):368
Water management is one of the most challenges in Algeria, a semi-arid Mediterranean country confronted to a serious water stress. The country will have to endure, beyond 2025, a situation of chronic water penury, adding an excessive pollution of the majority of groundwater reservoirs. The management of water resources by combined approach using hydrogeological model and nitrates evolution model was experimented in the Middle Soummam valley. The alluvial aquifer, offering good hydrodynamic and geometrical characteristics, is over-exploited, providing in drinking water Akbou and Tazmalt cities and irrigation perimeters. If exploitation continues at these steady paces, the depletion of the water resource and the hydrochemical imbalance will be inevitable. On the one hand, the results of hydrodynamic model, based on an increase of the water takings and simulated needs from 24.71 Mm3/year in 2015 into 39.69 Mm3/year in 2030, show a critical withdrawal. The aquifer budget expresses the inversion of flow between the wadi and the aquifer where the wadi feeds the groundwater reservoir. This hydrodynamic inversion was attributed to simulated pumping rates which increased and exceeded 100,000 m3/day, but the aquifer was partially relieved by the weight of the exploitation through Tichy Haf dam. The water management strategy adopted in this study was based on management measures promoting zones, which have been delimited between Tazmalt and Akbou, and containing important water quantities available in the axis of the valley. However, according to the depleted in isotopes of 18O and 2H, which could be explained by the influence of a paleoclimatic effect and suggested that the aquifer recharge would have largely been made under a colder climate, pumped groundwater could be old, and the implementation of new pumping sites has been studied minutely. On the other hand, the hydrogeochemical modelling allowed following nitrates concentrations in order to project their evolution. Four wells on 25 react in face to the imposed conditions in each scenario simulated until 2030, showing inertia of pollution, and confirmed after three series of tests. This inertia would be related to the hydraulic gradients and hydraulic conductivities, aquifer thickness and recharge. The low hydraulic gradients lead to a rather slow flow velocity and thus to an inertia in the dispersion of nitrates, with a mass transport weakened by the hydrodynamic conditions. It is also related to the aquifer thickness; when the aquifer is powerful (65–85 m), the stock of water would be important and allows a dilution process. The reverse is true for the simulated boreholes where the concentrations remain invariant; the aquifer is less powerful (32–37 m). Finally, the recharge effect through the rain was evoked; the aquifer is unconfined, and the rain water and pollution that reached the piezometric level can remain in position in slow hydrodynamic conditions. The methodology was demonstrated through a combination of monitoring and modelling for both water quantity and quality and the importance to use numerical models to support water resources management strategy in the Mediterranean aquifers. 相似文献
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