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Wout M. van Dijk Dick R. Mastbergen Geeralt A. van den Ham Jasper R. F. W. Leuven Maarten G. Kleinhans 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(11):2342-2357
Channel bank failure, and collapses of shoal margins and beaches due to flow slides, have been recorded in Dutch estuaries for the past 200 years but have hardly been recognized elsewhere. Current predictions lack forecasting capabilities, because they were validated and calibrated for historic data of cross‐sections in specific systems, allowing local hindcast rather than location and probability forecasting. The objectives of this study were to investigate where on shoal margins collapses typically occur and what shoal margin collapse geometries and volumes are, such that we can predict their occurrence. We identified shoal margin collapses, generally completely submerged, from bathymetry data by analyzing digital elevation models of difference of the Western Scheldt for the period 1959–2015. We used the bathymetry data to determine the conditions for occurrence, specifically to obtain slope height and angle, and applied these variables in a shoal margin collapse predictor. We found 299 collapses along 300 km of shoal margin boundaries over 56 years, meaning that more than five collapses occur on average per year. The average shoal margin collapse body is well approximated by a 1/3 ellipsoid shape, covers on average an area of 34 000 m2 and has an average volume of 100 000 m3. Shoal margin collapses occur mainly at locations where shoals take up a proportionally larger area than average in the cross‐section of the entire estuary, and occur most frequently where lateral shoal margin displacement is low. A receiver operating characteristic curve shows that the forecasting method predicts the shoal margin collapse location well. We conclude that the locations of the shoal margin collapses are well predicted by the variation in conditions of the relative slope height and angle within the Western Scheldt, and likely locations are at laterally relatively stable shoal margins. This provides hypotheses aiding the recognition of these features in sandy estuaries worldwide. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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In the metamorphic cores of many orogenic belts, large macroscopic folds in compositional layering also appear to fold one or more pervasive matrix foliations. The latter geometry suggests the folds formed relatively late in the tectonic history, after foliation development. However, microstructural analysis of four examples of such folds suggests this is not the case. The folds formed relatively early in the orogenic history and are the end product of multiple, near orthogonal, overprinting bulk shortening events. Once large macroscopic folds initiate, they may tighten further during successive periods of sub-parallel shortening, folding or reactivation of foliations that develop during intervening periods of near orthogonal shortening. Reactivation of the compositional layering defining the fold limbs causes foliation to be rotated into parallelism with the limbs.Multiple periods of porphyroblast growth accompanied the multiple phases of deformation that postdated the initial development of these folds. Some of these phases of deformation were attended by the development of large numbers of same asymmetry spiral-shaped inclusion trails in porphyroblasts on one limb of the fold and not the other, or larger numbers of opposite asymmetry spirals on the other limb, or similar numbers of the same asymmetry spirals on both limbs. Significantly, the largest disparity in numbers from limb to limb occurred for the first of these cases. For all four regional folds examined, the structural relationships that accompanied these large disparities were identical. In each case the shear sense operating on steeply dipping foliations was opposite to that required to originally develop the fold. Reactivation of the folded compositional layering was not possible for this shear sense. This favoured the development of sites of approximately coaxial shortening early during the deformation history, enhancing microfracture and promoting the growth of porphyroblasts on this limb in comparision to the other. These distributions of inclusion trail geometries from limb to limb cannot be explained by porphyroblast rotation, or folding of pre-existing rotated porphyroblasts within a shear zone, but can be explained by development of the inclusion trails synchronous with successive sub-vertical and sub-horizontal foliations. 相似文献
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In this study, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking to the boreal winter in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models is examined. It is found that the models that are poor at simulating the winter ENSO peak tend to simulate colder seasonal-mean sea-surface temperature (SST) during the boreal summer and associated shallower thermocline depth over the eastern Pacific. These models tend to amplify zonal advection and thermocline depth feedback during boreal summer. In addition, the colder eastern Pacific SST in the model can reduce the summertime mean local convective activity, which tends to weaken the atmospheric response to the ENSO SST forcing. It is also revealed that these models have more serious climatological biases over the tropical Pacific, implying that a realistic simulation of the climatological fields may help to simulate winter ENSO peak better. The models that are poor at simulating ENSO peak in winter also show excessive anomalous SST warming over the western Pacific during boreal winter of the El Nino events, which leads to strong local convective anomalies. This prevents the southward shift of El Nino-related westerly during boreal winter season. Therefore, equatorial westerly is prevailed over the western Pacific to further development of ENSO-related SST during boreal winter. This bias in the SST anomaly is partly due to the climatological dry biases over the central Pacific, which confines ENSO-related precipitation and westerly responses over the western Pacific. 相似文献
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Assessment of Nanosecond Laser Ablation Multi‐Collector Inductively Coupled Plasma‐Mass Spectrometry for Pb and Sr Isotopic Determination in Archaeological Glass: Mass Bias Correction Strategies and Results for Corning Glass Reference Materials 
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下载免费PDF全文 Alicia Van Ham‐Meert Stepan M. Chernonozhkin Stijn J.M. Van Malderen Thibaut Van Acker Frank Vanhaecke Patrick Degryse 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2018,42(2):223-238
This work presents an evaluation of various methods for in situ high‐precision Sr and Pb isotopic determination in archaeological glass (containing 100–500 μg g?1 target element) by nanosecond laser ablation multi‐collector‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (ns‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS). A set of four soda‐lime silicate glasses, Corning A–D, mimicking the composition of archaeological glass and produced by the Corning Museum of Glass (Corning, New York, USA), were investigated as candidates for matrix‐matched reference materials for use in the analysis of archaeological glass. Common geological reference materials with known isotopic compositions (USGS basalt glasses BHVO‐2G, GSE‐1G and NKT‐1G, soda‐lime silicate glass NIST SRM 610 and several archaeological glass samples with known Sr isotopic composition) were used to evaluate the ns‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS analytical procedures. When available, ns‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS results for the Corning glasses are reported. These were found to be in good agreement with results obtained via pneumatic nebulisation (pn) MC‐ICP‐MS after digestion of the glass matrix and target element isolation. The presence of potential spectral interference from doubly charged rare earth element (REE) ions affecting Sr isotopic determination was investigated by admixing Er and Yb aerosols by means of pneumatic nebulisation into the gas flow from the laser ablation system. It was shown that doubly charged REE ions affect the Sr isotope ratios, but that this could be circumvented by operating the instrument at higher mass resolution. Multiple strategies to correct for instrumental mass discrimination in ns‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS and the effects of relevant interferences were evaluated. Application of common glass reference materials with basaltic matrices for correction of ns‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS isotope data of archaeological glasses results in inaccurate Pb isotope ratios, rendering application of matrix‐matched reference materials indispensable. Correction for instrumental mass discrimination using the exponential law, with the application of Tl as an internal isotopic standard element introduced by pneumatic nebulisation and Corning D as bracketing isotopic calibrator, provided the most accurate results for Pb isotope ratio measurements in archaeological glass. Mass bias correction relying on the power law, combined with intra‐element internal correction, assuming a constant 88Sr/86Sr ratio, yielded the most accurate results for 87Sr/86Sr determination in archaeological glasses 相似文献
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Yoo-Geun Ham Michele M. Rienecker Max J. Suarez Yury Vikhliaev Bin Zhao Jelena Marshak Guillaume Vernieres Siegfried D. Schubert 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):1-20
A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO’s) GEOS-5 Atmosphere–Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO’s atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 % improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts. 相似文献
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Yoo-Geun Ham Mi-Kyung Sung Soon-Il An Siegfried D. Schubert Jong-Seong Kug 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2014,50(3):247-261
The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM). 相似文献
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Tae-Gew Ham Yukio Nakata Rolando Orense Masayuki Hyodo 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2012,30(1):119-127
In order to investigate the strength and deformation anisotropy of compacted decomposed granite soils, a series of drained
triaxial compression tests was performed on unsaturated and saturated decomposed granite soils. The specimens were subjected
to compression tests such that the angle δ of the direction of the major principal stress, σ
1, during triaxial compression relative to the compaction plane (bedding plane) varies, with δ = 0°, 45° and 90°. Test results indicated that the compressive strain of the specimens subjected to isotropic consolidation
was influenced strongly by the angle δ. In addition, the effect of the angle δ on the triaxial compressive strength and deformation was more evident in unsaturated specimens than in saturated specimens.
Based on the test results, a procedure which can be used to estimate the shear strength of unsaturated soils taking into account
various angles δ was proposed. 相似文献
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Suryun Ham Song-You Hong Yign Noh Soon-Il An Young-Hwa Byun Hyun-Suk Kang Johan Lee Won-Tae Kwon 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2012,48(4):457-463
This paper investigates the effects of river discharge on simulated climatology from 1979 to 1988 using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2. Two experiments are performed with and without the inclusion of Total Runoff Integrating Pathways. The results show that the inclusion of flow routing can lead to the decrease of salinity over the coastal region due to freshwater. This reduction results in a shallower mixed layer depth, which in turn leads to the weakening of trade winds and a decrease in vertical mixing in the ocean. The enhanced sensible and latent heat fluxes over warmed SST improve the simulated precipitation and thermodynamic circulation. As a result, the experiment with flow routing is capable of improving the large-scale climate feature with an increase in precipitation over the eastern tropical equatorial Pacific region. 相似文献