基于小波变换与神经网络的石羊河流域夏季地温预测模型研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

贾东于  李开明  聂晓英  袁春霞  李清峰  高福元 《冰川冻土》2020,42(2):412-422

地温变化在气候反馈效应中起着重要作用， 理解地温及其与影响因素之间的时空关系对预测全球温度变化至关重要。利用1998 - 2017年石羊河流域的逐日常规气象观测资料， 采用小波分析结合BP（Back Propagation）神经网络构建了石羊河流域夏季地温预报模型， 结果表明： 日平均地温预测效果在不同站点均为最佳， 其中预测值和观测值的相关系数均大于0.87， 3 ℃以内的预测概率均大于84%。其中， 民勤地区地温预测效果最好， 预测值和观测值的相关系数达到0.91， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到86%。日最高地温的预测值与观测值的相关系数高于0.8， 但误差平方和、 标准差较大。永昌地区日最高地温的模拟效果最好， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到83%。日最低地温的预测与观测值的平均相关系数高于0.66， 3 ℃以内的预报概率高于83%， 但预测值略低。其中， 武威地区日最低地温的预测效果最好， 预测值与观测值的相关系数为0.72， 3 ℃以内的预测概率达到94%。研究成果可为有效弥补干旱、 半干旱区地温观测资料缺失和探讨其与局地气候的关系提供一些参考。  相似文献   

Stability analysis of shotcrete supported crown of NATM tunnels with discontinuity layout optimization          下载免费PDF全文

Yiming Zhang  Xiaoying Zhuang  Roman Lackner 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(11):1199-1216

For tunnel constructed by New Austrian Tunnelling Method, the crown is the upper part of tunnel section, constructed during excavation process and supported by shotcrete. The stability of the crown has great influence on the safety of tunnel itself and the buildings above, which correlates, among others, with geometrical setup of tunnel and material properties of shotcrete and soil/rock. In this paper, aiming at analyzing the stability of shotcrete supported crown, a recently presented numerical method discontinuity layout optimization is adopted, which introduces a great amount of potential discontinuities cross over one another and provides a wide search space for efficient upper limit analysis. In the analysis, a well‐established hydration model of cementitious material is implemented for accounting the hydration of shotcrete. Then assumptions based on convergence‐confinement method are used for accounting the 3‐dimensional effect in 2‐dimensional analysis, finally providing time‐space–dependent assessments of stability of shotcrete supported crown.  相似文献   

青藏高原热融湖塘的水热过程及其对下伏多年冻土的热影响     

胡晓莹  盛煜  吴吉春  李静  曹伟 《湖泊科学》2018,30(3):825-835

以青藏高原查拉坪地区一处热融湖塘(40 m×50 m,最大深度为1 m)为研究对象,由实测数据对比分析了热融湖塘与天然地表相同深度的温度变化特征.结果表明:与天然地表相比,热融湖塘融化时间长,冻结时间短,且存在接近4℃的水温变化;受太阳辐射及热对流的影响,垂向水温梯度仅在水表从4℃降温及冻结阶段较大,其余时段接近0;湖底年均温度比相同深度的天然地表高约6.4℃,湖底下部存在约14 m深随时间发展的融区,土体吸热增大,放热减小;热融湖塘2.5~3.0 m土体的年内热交换为19592.0 k J/m2,约是天然地表的230倍,其中吸热量及放热量分别为后者的1.4倍及8.7%.湖塘下部的融化夹层是深层冻土的主要热源,湖塘对下部土体放热的抑制作用是湖塘对土体产生热影响的主要原因.  相似文献   

Partition-coordinated control of soil and water loss for chestnut forests in the Yanshan Mountain Region,China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xinhui Ding  Guangquan Liu  Xiaoying Liu  Yongsheng Xie  Zhichun Yue 《国际泥沙研究》2019,34(1):58-64

Soil erosion from chestnut forests is one of the most important factors causing land degradation in the Yanshan Mountain Region. A 2-year field study was done to compare the effects on erosion of a control plot (CP), a repaired and maintained horizontal ditch built with an engineering baffle every 6?m (MP 1), and a repaired and maintained horizontal ditch built with an engineering baffle every 8?m (MP 2). The results showed that the slope runoff of chestnut forests was influenced by rainfall characteristic factors. No single rainfall characteristic factor showed dominance for hill slope runoff. The runoff reduction effect of the partition-coordinated erosion control measures (MP 1 and MP 2) was substantial for chestnut forests under high rainfall intensity conditions. However, the runoff reduction efficiency was higher under the conditions of heavy rainfall and low average rainfall intensity than for storms with higher intensity and lower total rainfall. The reduction effect of the partition-coordinated erosion control measures on the runoff and sediment yield of chestnut forest slopes was MP 2 > MP 1 > CP. The runoff reduction rate and erosion reduction rate of MP 2 reached 61.70% and 97.41%, respectively, and that for MP 1 was 54.15% and 85.31%, respectively. Therefore, after a comprehensive comparison, MP 2 was determined to be more effective for soil erosion control for a sloping chestnut forest.  相似文献   

物探方法在预防路面塌陷中的应用     

徐晓英  徐万祥  张俊伟  欧阳伟 《华北地震科学》2020,38(2):68-71,77

城市地下空间的开发利用不可避免地在基础设施建设中造成土体流失或土层沉降,形成的地下“病害体”易导致城市道路塌陷的发生。文章以滁州琅琊大道为例,采用地质雷达法和浅层地震勘探法对城市老城区排水管网周边进行探测。结果表明:①在探测深度不超过7.0 m范围内,地质雷达法可以满足探测要求;②在场地条件复杂、干扰较多的情况下,需辅以浅层地震勘探法。利用上述方法,可以更准确地查明地下“病害体”的位置,防止了路面塌陷的发生。  相似文献   

Evolution of permafrost in China during the last 20 ka     

Jin  Huijun  Jin  Xiaoying  He  Ruixia  Luo  Dongliang  Chang  Xiaoli  Wang  Shaoling  Marchenko  Sergey S  Yang  Sizhong  Yi  Chaolu  Li  Shijie  Harris  Stuart A 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2019,62(8):1207-1223

The formation and evolution of permafrost in China during the last 20 ka were reconstructed on the basis of large amount of paleo-permafrost remains and paleo-periglacial evidence, as well as paleo-glacial landforms, paleo-flora and paleofauna records. The results indicate that, during the local Last Glacial Maximum(LLGM) or local Last Permafrost Maximum(LLPMax), the extent of permafrost of China reached 5.3×106-5.4×106 km2, or thrice that of today, but permafrost shrank to only0.80×106-0.85×106 km2, or 50% that of present, during the local Holocene Megathermal Period(LHMP), or the local Last Permafrost Minimum(LLPMin). On the basis of the dating of periglacial remains and their distributive features, the extent of permafrost in China was delineated for the two periods of LLGM(LLPMax) and LHMP(LLPMin), and the evolution of permafrost in China was divided into seven periods as follows:(1) LLGM in Late Pleistocene(ca. 20000 to 13000-10800 a BP)with extensive evidence for the presence of intensive ice-wedge expansion for outlining its LLPMax extent;(2) A period of dramatically changing climate during the early Holocene(10800 to 8500-7000 a BP) when permafrost remained relatively stable but with a general trend of shrinking areal extent;(3) The LHMP in the Mid-Holocene(8500-7000 to 4000-3000 a BP)when permafrost degraded intensively and extensively, and shrank to the LLPMin;(4) Neoglaciation during the late Holocene(4000-3000 to 1000 a BP, when permafrost again expanded;(5) Medieval Warming Period(MWP) in the late Holocene(1000-500 a BP) when permafrost was in a relative decline;(6) Little Ice Age(LIA) in the late Holocene(500-100 a BP), when permafrost relatively expanded, and;(7) Recent warming(during the 20 th century), when permafrost continuously degraded and still is degrading. The paleo-climate, geography and paleopermafrost extents and other features were reconstructed for each of these seven periods.  相似文献   

华南埃迪卡拉纪硫化海洋环境演变来自深水相区的黄铁矿证据     

王林  史晓颖  蒋干清 《地质论评》2011,57(6):810-824

为进一步认识华南埃迪卡拉纪(震旦纪)海水硫化条件的演变过程,本文对斜坡相沉积的陡山沱组中的黄铁矿进行形态与粒度分布研究。结果表明陡山沱期沉积的多数黄铁矿是早期成岩作用形成,以自形、半自形晶体为主;个别层位中草莓状黄铁矿粒径大于10μm的比例较高(89%～96%),反映是在海水、沉积物界面以下生长的,不能充分指示水体硫化状态。但在陡山沱组中部和上部发育有数层从水体中析出的同沉积草莓状黄铁矿(96%以上的莓球粒径小于10μm),反映出海水硫化条件发育。黄铁矿铁与高活性铁的比值(FePY/FeHR)作为判别海洋硫化状态的重要指标,可能会因次生黄铁矿的叠加效应影响而产生偏差,应结合黄铁矿矿物形态—粒度分析和其他手段加以校正。通过这2种方法并结合碳、硫同位素等研究表明,陡山沱组沉积旋回Ⅰ顶部和旋回Ⅲ底部沉积期间华南古海洋曾经历了两幕规模较大的间歇性硫化时期,在此期间硫化水体的覆盖范围至少包括陆架至斜坡中部相区。硫化水体的形成和时空演变主要受大气含氧量、海水硫酸盐浓度、细菌硫酸盐活动(BSR)及海平面变化等因素控制。重要的生物类群主要出现在非硫化间隔期,表明海水硫化条件是限制生物发展的重要环境因素之一。  相似文献   

导航卫星自主定轨时轨道机动问题的处理方法     

李征航  张卫星  龚晓颖  屈小川 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2011,36(11):1309-1313

在各种摄动因素的作用下,导航卫星将逐渐偏离其预定轨道,因而需要通过轨道机动的方法来予以纠正。但轨道机动后,由预报轨道所提供的轨道先验信息将失去作用,这是用星间距离观测值和先验轨道信息进行导航卫星自主定轨时必须要解决的问题。提出机动后,机动卫星采用几何法来确定自己的位置,然后用动力学法来进行轨道拟合和轨道预报,在机动后第二天就能恢复正常的自主定轨。即使有多个卫星在同一天发生机动,个别卫星因可观测卫星不足4个而无法定轨,在第二天就能实现几何法定位,不会影响整个系统的导航定位功能。  相似文献   

“GNSS气象学”课程实践教学探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙景领  王晓英  柯福阳 《全球定位系统》2015,(3)

随着测绘学科与气象学科不断交叉与渗透,测绘相关理论、技术与方法在气象业务中的应用越来越深入,尤其全球导航卫星系统（GNSS）在气象行业中的广泛应用,急需大量的从事GNSS气象应用方面的高级工程技术人才。结合南京信息工程大学测绘工程专业开设的“GNSS气象学”课程,从实践教学内容、教学手段、考核方式、实践条件、师资队伍等几方面对该课程的实践教学进行了探讨,为高校培养测绘气象复合型人才提供参考。  相似文献   

Spatial Characteristics and Controlling Factors of the Strikeslip Fault Zones in the Northern Slope of Tazhong Uplift,Tarim Basin: Insight from 3D Seismic Data     

HAN Xiaoying  TANG Liangjie  DENG Shang  CAO Zicheng 《《地质学报》英文版》2020,94(2):516-529

The detailed characteristics of the Paleozoic strike-slip fault zones developed in the northern slope of Tazhong uplift are closely related to hydrocarbon explorations. In this study, five major strike-slip fault zones that cut through the Cambrian-Middle Devonian units are identified, by using 3D seismic data. Each of the strike-slip fault zones is characterized by two styles of deformation, namely deeper strike-slip faults and shallower en-echelon faults. By counting the reverse separation of the horizon along the deeper faults, activity intensity on the deeper strike-slip faults in the south is stronger than that on the northern ones. The angle between the strike of the shallower en-echelon normal faults and the principal displacement zone(PDZ) below them is likely to have a tendency to decrease slightly from the south to the north, which may indicate that activity intensity on the shallower southern en-echelon faults is stronger than that on the northern ones. Comparing the reverse separation along the deeper faults and the fault throw of the shallower faults, activity intensity of the Fault zone S1 is similar across different layers, while the activity intensity of the southern faults is larger than that of the northern ones. It is obvious that both the activity intensity of the same layer in different fault zones and different layers in the same fault zone have a macro characteristic in that the southern faults show stronger activity intensity than the northern ones. The Late Ordovician décollement layer developed in the Tazhong area and the peripheral tectonic events of the Tarim Basin have been considered two main factors in the differential deformation characteristics of the strike-slip fault zones in the northern slope of Tazhong uplift. They controlled the differences in the multi-level and multi-stage deformations of the strike-slip faults, respectively. In particular, peripheral tectonic events of the Tarim Basin were the dynamic source of the formatting and evolution of the strike-slip fault zones, and good candidates to accommodate the differential activity intensity of these faults.  相似文献