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It is known that a lot of uncertainties are involved in geotechnical design of energy piles. In this paper, a Bayesian updating framework is presented to characterize those uncertainties. The load-transfer model is developed to predict the thermomechanical response of energy piles. Considering the cross-case variability of the uncertainty in the axial strains of pile, the global model bias is firstly calibrated by establishing a comprehensive database consisting of 12 energy pile cases. Furthermore, the uncertainty in input parameters is considered in the Bayesian updating of model bias in a specific case. The variability of the uncertain parameters is effectively reduced after updating. The coefficient of variation of prediction is decreased from 0.34 to 0.13. The present framework can well quantify uncertain factors and improve the accuracy and reliability of the prediction model.
相似文献2.
Some Thoughts on the Earthquake Science Experimental Site——The Underground Cloud Map 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Western Yunnan Earthquake Predication Test Site set up jointly by the China Earthquake Administration, the National Science Foundation Commission of America, and United States Geological Survey has played an important role in development of early earthquake research work in China. Due to various objective reasons, most of the predicted targets in the earthquake prediction test site have not been achieved, and the development has been hindered. In recent years, the experiment site has been reconsidered, and renamed the “Earthquake Science Experimental Site”. Combined with the current development of seismology and the practical needs of disaster prevention and mitigation, we propose adding the “Underground Cloud Map” as the new direction of the experimental site. Using highly repeatable, environmentally friendly and safe airgun sources, we could send constant seismic signals, which realizes continuous monitoring of subsurface velocity changes. Utilizing the high-resolution 3-D crustal structure from ambient noise tomography, we could obtain 4-D (3-D space + 1-D time) images of subsurface structures, which we termed the “Underground Cloud Map”. The “Underground Cloud Map” can reflect underground velocity and stress changes, providing new means for the earthquake monitoring forecast nationwide, which promotes the conversion of experience-based earthquake prediction to physics-based prediction. 相似文献
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In order to further deepen the understanding of seismic wave propagation characteristics induced by the large volume airgun source, experimental data from multiple fixed excitation points in Fujian Province were used to obtain the equivalent single excitation high signal-to-noise ratio velocity and displacement records through linear stacking and simulation techniques. Then the peak displacements of different epicentral distances were used to calculate the equivalent magnitude of the airgun source excitation at different fixed excitation points so as to establish the attenuation relationship between equivalent magnitude,epicenter distance and velocity peak. Our results show that:① Within 270 km of epicentral distance,for the large-volume airgun's single shot,the peak velocity range is about 700-4 nm/s,and the peak displacement range is about 200. 0-0. 2 nm;② The equivalent magnitude of the P-wave from the airgun source with a total capacity of 8,000 in 3 is 0. 181-0. 760,and the equivalent magnitude of the S-wave is 0. 294-0. 832. By contrast,the equivalent magnitude of the P-wave from the airgun source with a total capacity of 12,000 in 3 is 0. 533-0. 896,and the equivalent magnitude of the S-wave is 0. 611-0. 946. The S-wave energy is greater than the P-wave energy, and the excitation efficiency varies greatly with different excitation environment;③ The peak velocity increases with the equivalent magnitude,and decreases with the epicentral distance. The vertical component of the P-wave peak velocity is the largest among those three components,while the S-wave has the smallest vertical component and similar horizontal components. Hence,our research can provide an important basis for the quantitative judgment of the seismic wave propagation distance using the airgun and the design of the observation system in deep exploration or monitoring with airgun. 相似文献
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由中国地震局和美国国家科学基金委、地质调查局合作建立的地震预报研究实验场为中国早期地震工作的发展起到了良好的推动作用。由于种种客观原因,地震预报实验场的多数预想目标未能达成,发展受到了阻碍。最近几年,实验场重新受到重视,并更名为"地震科学实验场"。结合目前地震学发展的前沿和防震减灾事业的实际需求,本文提出增加"地下云图"作为实验场的新方向。利用高重复性、环境友好、安全性高的气枪震源,持续激发地震信号,实现对地下介质速度变化的连续监测;结合背景噪声成像获得的高分辨率3维地壳结构,构建4维(三维空间+一维时间)地下结构成像。"地下云图"可以反映地下速度和应力变化,为全国范围的地震监测预测提供新的业务手段,推动地震预测从经验预测到物理预测的转换。 相似文献
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为充分利用先进设备和技术,提高我国海域使用动态监管水平,文章介绍无人机全景技术及其作业流程,并分析大笔架山海域无人机全景监视监测实例。研究结果表明:目前全景图主要利用普通相机拍摄的照片经专业图像软件后期处理生成,在多个行业领域应用,结合无人机的利用可大大扩展视野,具有快速高效、安全可靠和操作简便等优势,但在测量、自动化和视距等方面仍存在局限性;无人机全景图作业主要包括方案制订、数据获取、数据处理和图像发布4个步骤;海域无人机全景监视监测工作的开展为大笔架山海域使用动态监管提供有力的数据支撑。 相似文献
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为了分析观测值的时间相关性对GPS基线解算结果及其精度评定的影响,分别利用两条基线的7d观测数据,顾及相关窗口中所有历元的时间相关性,以45min为一个时段将7d观测数据分为224个时段,编制了软件进行基线处理和分析。在忽略和顾及时间相关性两种情况下,采用不同采样率,对224个时段的基线处理结果进行统计分析。 相似文献
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Remote sensing of ecosystem services: An opportunity for spatially explicit assessment 总被引：6，自引：5，他引：1
Ecosystem service is an emerging concept that grows to be a hot research area in ecology. Spatially explicit ecosystem service
values are important for ecosystem service management. However, it is difficult to quantify ecosystem services. Remote sensing
provides images covering Earth surface, which by nature are spatially explicit. Thus, remote sensing can be useful for quantitative
assessment of ecosystem services. This paper reviews spatially explicit ecosystem service studies conducted in ecology and
remote sensing in order to find out how remote sensing can be used for ecosystem service assessment. Several important areas
considered include land cover, biodiversity, and carbon, water and soil related ecosystem services. We found that remote sensing
can be used for ecosystem service assessment in three different ways: direct monitoring, indirect monitoring, and combined
use with ecosystem models. Some plant and water related ecosystem services can be directly monitored by remote sensing. Most
commonly, remote sensing can provide surrogate information on plant and soil characteristics in an ecosystem. For ecosystem
process related ecosystem services, remote sensing can help measure spatially explicit parameters. We conclude that acquiring
good in-situ measurements and selecting appropriate remote sensor data in terms of resolution are critical for accurate assessment
of ecosystem services. 相似文献
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