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我国台风路径业务预报误差及成因分析 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
利用2005 2009年中国气象局(CMA)提供的西北太平洋(包括南海)台风路径业务预报资料,比较了各类型台风路径、台风登陆位置及登陆时间的预报误差,登陆台风不同阶段以及华东登陆和华南登陆台风的路径预报误差。结果表明:CMA在2005 2009年的路径预报水平与1999 2003年的相比有了显著提高。平均南海台风预报误差大于西北太平洋。异常路径台风主要出现于南海,三个预报时效(24、48和72 h)异常路径的预报误差平均都小于正常路径。将登陆台风分为远海、登陆期间和登陆后三个阶段,显示登陆期间台风预报误差最大,同一阶段华南登陆台风的预报误差大于华东登陆台风。台风登陆位置在24、48和72 h预报时效的平均预报误差分别为71.1、122.6和210.6 km,48和72 h台风实际登陆时间有70%早于预报时间,平均分别提早8和12 h。比较大尺度引导气流与台风移动的偏差及24 h路径预报误差,得到南海三种典型登陆台风路径的大尺度引导气流与台风移动的偏差及其与路径预报误差的关系不一样,即误差成因不同。南海倒抛物线型的大尺度引导气流与台风移动的偏差最大,其预报误差最小;西一西北型的大尺度引导气流与台风移动的偏差最小,其预报误差最大,可能与大尺度环流预报准确性差有关。登陆华东的预报误差小于登陆华南台风的预报误差,这与台风登陆华南时其大尺度引导气流和台风移动的偏差大于登陆华东的台风有关。 相似文献
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An ensemble of satellite measurements, statistic data from government and meteorological diagnosis in regional background site (Haikou, China) has revealed the spatial and temporal characteristics of NO2 and associated synoptic transport patterns over southern China from January 2013 to February 2014. The result shows that: (1) Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite products had a good correlation with observation NO2 in Haikou. The correlation coefficients between Observation NO2 and tropospheric column NO2 and ratio of TroNO2/ TotNO2(tropospheric column NO2/ total column NO2) had all passed the confidence level of 99.9% test. (2) TroNO2 over southern China has an obvious seasonal variation, which is closely coupled with regional meteorology in each season. (3) NO2 concentration in Haikou revealed three pollution periods during December 2013 and January 2014. The variation of NO2 concentration in Haikou is related to the meteorological elements closely. (4) Compared to the monthly mean meteorological fields of the pollution periods, the results indicate that NO2 pollution event in Haikou is directly related to the exogenous transportation from PRD region. An ensemble analysis of meteorological dynamic factors, wind vectors and backward trajectories during the pollution periods further verified this conclusion. 相似文献
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