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1.
Cheng Ying Liu Hongyan Wang Hongya Chen Deliang Ciais Philippe Luo Yao Wu Xiuchen Yin Yi 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2021,64(10):1774-1783
Although alpine ecosystems have been commonly recognized as sensitive to recent climate change, few studies have examined its impact on the long-term productivity of vegetation and soil erosion. Using paleoecological records, these two aspects were examined in the alpine zone of the Taibai Mountains(elevation, 3767 m) in monsoon-dominated East Asia since the middle Holocene. Proxies for the productivity of vegetation and severity of soil erosion from high-resolution alpine lacustrine records show that the productivity and soil erosion were closely related to mean annual temperature and summer precipitation from the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM), respectively. Specifically, when the mean annual temperature was low and precipitation was abundant, during 5800–4000 calendar years before the present(cal. yr BP), the alpine ecosystem was characterized by low vegetation productivity and severe soil erosion. However, the productivity increased and soil erosion decreased from 4000 cal. yr BP onwards. These results highlight the role of paleoecological evidence in studying ecosystem services on longer time scales, which is significant in making policies for sustainable development under climate change in regions for which such long-term monitoring data are not available. 相似文献
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Despite their primary contribution to climate change, there are still large uncertainties on the sources and sinks of the main greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). A better knowledge of these sources is necessary to understand the processes that control them and therefore to predict their variations. Indeed, large feedbacks between climate change and greenhouse gas fluxes are expected during the 21st century. Sources and sinks of these gases generate spatial and temporal gradients that can be measured either in situ or from space. One can then estimate the surface fluxes, either positive or negative, from concentration measurements through a so-called atmospheric inversion. Surface measurements are currently used to estimate the fluxes at continental scales. The high density of spaceborne observations allows potentially a much higher resolution. Several remote sensing techniques can be used to measure atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. These techniques have motivated the development of spaceborne instruments, some of them already in space and others under development. However, the accuracy of the current estimates is still not sufficient to improve our knowledge on the greenhouse gases sources and sinks. Rapid improvements are expected during the forthcoming years with a strong implication of the scientific community and the launch of dedicated instruments, optimized for the measurement of CO2 and CH4 concentrations. 相似文献
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Using recent advances in statistical crop yield modelling and a unique dataset consisting of yield time series for Russian regions over the period from 1955 to 2012, the study investigates the potential impact of climate change (CC) on the productivity of the three most important grains. Holding current grain growing areas fixed, the aggregate productivity of the three grains is predicted to decrease by 6.7% in 2046–2065 and increase by 2.6% in 2081–2100 compared to 1971–2000 under the most optimistic representative emission concentration pathway (RCP). Based on the projections for the three other RCPs, the aggregate productivity of the three studied crops is assessed to decrease by 18.0, 7.9 and 26.0% in the medium term and by 31.2, 25.9 and 55.4% by the end of the century. Our results indicate that CC might have a positive effect on winter wheat, spring wheat and spring barley productivity in a number of regions in the Northern and Siberian parts of Russia. However, due to the highly damaging CC impact on grain production in the most productive regions located in the South of the country, the overall impact tends to be negative. Therefore, a shift of agricultural production to the Northern regions of the country could reduce the negative impact of CC on grain production only to a limited extent. More vigorous adaptation measures are required to maintain current grain production volumes in Russia under CC. 相似文献
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Valrie Masson Franoise Vimeux Jean Jouzel Vin Morgan Marc Delmotte Philippe Ciais Claus Hammer Sigfus Johnsen Vladimir Ya. Lipenkov E. Mosley-Thompson Jean-Robert Petit Eric J. Steig Michel Stievenard Rein Vaikmae 《Quaternary Research》2000,54(3):348
A comparison is made of the Holocene records obtained from water isotope measurements along 11 ice cores from coastal and central sites in east Antarctica (Vostok, Dome B, Plateau Remote, Komsomolskaia, Dome C, Taylor Dome, Dominion Range, D47, KM105, and Law Dome) and west Antarctica (Byrd), with temporal resolution from 20 to 50 yr. The long-term trends possibly reflect local ice sheet elevation fluctuations superimposed on common climatic fluctuations. All the records confirm the widespread Antarctic early Holocene optimum between 11,500 and 9000 yr; in the Ross Sea sector, a secondary optimum is identified between 7000 and 5000 yr, whereas all eastern Antarctic sites show a late optimum between 6000 and 3000 yr. Superimposed on the long time trend, all the records exhibit 9 aperiodic millennial-scale oscillations. Climatic optima show a reduced pacing between warm events (typically 800 yr), whereas cooler periods are associated with less-frequent warm events (pacing >1200 yr). 相似文献
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Böttcher H Freibauer A Scholz Y Gitz V Ciais P Mund M Wutzler T Schulze ED 《Carbon balance and management》2012,7(1):5-18
Background
No consensus has been reached how to measure the effectiveness of climate change mitigation in the land-use sector and how to prioritize land use accordingly. We used the long-term cumulative and average sectorial C stocks in biomass, soil and products, C stock changes, the substitution of fossil energy and of energy-intensive products, and net present value (NPV) as evaluation criteria for the effectiveness of a hectare of productive land to mitigate climate change and produce economic returns. We evaluated land management options using real-life data of Thuringia, a region representative for central-western European conditions, and input from life cycle assessment, with a carbon-tracking model. We focused on solid biomass use for energy production.Results
In forestry, the traditional timber production was most economically viable and most climate-friendly due to an assumed recycling rate of 80% of wood products for bioenergy. Intensification towards "pure bioenergy production" would reduce the average sectorial C stocks and the C substitution and would turn NPV negative. In the forest conservation (non-use) option, the sectorial C stocks increased by 52% against timber production, which was not compensated by foregone wood products and C substitution. Among the cropland options wheat for food with straw use for energy, whole cereals for energy, and short rotation coppice for bioenergy the latter was most climate-friendly. However, specific subsidies or incentives for perennials would be needed to favour this option.Conclusions
When using the harvested products as materials prior to energy use there is no climate argument to support intensification by switching from sawn-wood timber production towards energy-wood in forestry systems. A legal framework would be needed to ensure that harvested products are first used for raw materials prior to energy use. Only an effective recycling of biomaterials frees land for long-term sustained C sequestration by conservation. Reuse cascades avoid additional emissions from shifting production or intensification. 相似文献7.
Baozhang Chen Guang Xu Nicholas C. Coops Philippe Ciais Ranga B. Myneni 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2016,9(11):1055-1076
The Asia-Pacific (AP) region has experienced faster warming than the global average in recent decades and has experienced more climate extremes, however little is known about the response of vegetation growth to these changes. The updated Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies third-generation global satellite Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index dataset and gridded reanalysis climate data were used to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in both trends of vegetation dynamic indicators and climatic variables. We then further analyzed their relations associated with land cover across the AP region. The main findings are threefold: (1) at continental scales the AP region overall experienced a gradual and significant increasing trend in vegetation growth during the last three decades, and this NDVI trend corresponded with an insignificant increasing trend in temperature; (2) vegetation growth was negatively and significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in AP; and (3) at pixel scales, except for Australia, both vegetation growth and air temperature significantly increased in the majority of study regions and vegetation growth spatially correlated with temperature; In Australia and other water-limited regions vegetation growth positively correlated with precipitation. 相似文献
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A model is presented here, which attempts to determine interactions between change in land use and concentration of atmospheric CO2 over the 1700–2100 period. The main impact of the conversion of forests to agricultural areas is the increase of atmospheric CO2 because of the losses of biomass and soil carbon in favour of the atmosphere. This raise will probably increase in the next years, correlated with the proportion of cultivated areas. We show here that this first-order effect is amplified by the correlative decrease of terrestrial sinks of CO2; in fact, as forests are replaced by cultivated parcels, carbon residence time in biosphere decreases, as well as sequestration ability of these ecosystems. This amplification effect leads to an additional increase in atmospheric CO2, which could reach 100 ppm in 2100. The uncertainties on the range of such an increase are important since they cumulate both uncertainties on the behaviour (sink or source) of terrestrial ecosystems in the future and inherent uncertainties of the modeling of carbon fluxes linked to changing land uses… Such an additional increase in CO2 is partially limited by the ocean reservoir and by the existing CO2 sinks in primary non-anthropologically disturbed ecosystems. The results imply that conservation of primary forests, for which primary productivity and carbon time of residence are high, is an efficient strategy for greenhouse-effect mitigation. To cite this article: V. Gitz, P. Ciais, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003). 相似文献
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B. Guenet P. Cadule S. Zaehle S. L. Piao P. Peylin F. Maignan P. Ciais P. Friedlingstein 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(9-10):2535-2548
The carbon cycle strongly interacts with the nitrogen cycle. Several observations show that the effects of global change on primary production and carbon storage in plant biomass and soils are partially controlled by N availability. Nevertheless, only a small number of terrestrial biosphere models represent explicitly the nitrogen cycle, despite its importance on the carbon cycle and on climate. These models are difficult to evaluate at large spatiotemporal scales because of the scarcity of data at the global scale over a long time period. In this study, we benchmark the capacity of the O–CN global terrestrial biosphere model to reproduce temporal changes in leaf area index (LAI) at the global scale observed by NOAA_AVHRR satellites over the period 1982–2002. Using a satellite LAI product based on the normalized difference vegetation index of global inventory monitoring and modelling studies dataset, we estimate the long-term trend of LAI and we compare it with the results from the terrestrial biosphere models, either with (O–CN) or without (O–C) a dynamic nitrogen cycle coupled to the carbon–water-energy cycles. In boreal and temperate regions, including a dynamic N cycle (O–CN) improved the fit between observed and modeled temporal changes in LAI. In contrast, in the tropics, simulated LAI from the model without the dynamic N cycle (O–C) better matched observed changes in LAI over time. Despite differential regional trends, the satellite estimate suggests an increase in the global average LAI during 1982–2002 by 0.0020 m2 m?2 y?1. Both versions of the model substantially overestimated the rate of change in LAI over time (0.0065 m2 m?2 y?1 for O–C and 0.0057 m2 m?2 y?1 for O–CN), suggesting that some additional limitation mechanisms are missing in the model. We also estimated the relative importance of climate, CO2 and N deposition as potential drivers of the temporal changes in LAI. We found that recent climate change better explained temporal changes in LAI when the dynamic N cycle was included in the model (higher ranked fit for O–CN vs. O–C). Using the O–C configuration to estimate the direct effect of climate on LAI, we quantified the importance of climate-N cycle feedbacks in explaining the LAI response. We found that the warming-induced release of N from soil organic matter decomposition explains 17.5 % of the global trend in LAI over time, however, reaching up to 40.9 % explained variance in the boreal zone, which is a more important contribution than increasing anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Our analysis supports a strong connection between warming, N cycling, and vegetation productivity. These findings underscore the importance of including N cycling in global-scale models of vegetation response to environmental change. 相似文献
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E. A. G. Schuur B. W. Abbott W. B. Bowden V. Brovkin P. Camill J. G. Canadell J. P. Chanton F. S. Chapin III T. R. Christensen P. Ciais B. T. Crosby C. I. Czimczik G. Grosse J. Harden D. J. Hayes G. Hugelius J. D. Jastrow J. B. Jones T. Kleinen C. D. Koven G. Krinner P. Kuhry D. M. Lawrence A. D. McGuire S. M. Natali J. A. O’Donnell C. L. Ping W. J. Riley A. Rinke V. E. Romanovsky A. B. K. Sannel C. Schädel K. Schaefer J. Sky Z. M. Subin C. Tarnocai M. R. Turetsky M. P. Waldrop K. M. Walter Anthony K. P. Wickland C. J. Wilson S. A. Zimov 《Climatic change》2013,119(2):359-374
Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19–45 Pg C by 2040, 162–288 Pg C by 2100, and 381–616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing. 相似文献