We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献
A crucial point in any methodology for avalanche hazard assessment is the evaluation of avalanche distance exceeded probability, i.e., the annual probability that any assigned location along a given path is reached or exceeded by an avalanche. Typically this problem is faced by estimating the snow volume in the starting zone that is likely to accumulate an average every T years by statistical analysis of snowfall record, and then using this volume as input to an appropriately calibrated avalanche dynamics model to determine the runout distancesfor this design event. This methodology identifies the areas that canbe affected by an avalanche for the considered value of the return period (i.e. the average interval of time for a certain event to repeat itself), ¯T. However, it does not allow us to evaluate the actual avalanche encounter probability for any given point in the runout zone. In the present work this probability is computed by numerical integration of the expression P(x) = ∫0∞ P*(V)f(V) dV, where f is the probabilitydensity function (PDF) of the avalanche release volume V, and P* is the probability of the point x being reached or passed by an avalanche if the release volume is V; this latter probability is calculated by avalanche dynamics simulations. The procedure is implemented using a one-dimensional hydraulic-continuum avalanche dynamic model, calibrated on data from different Italian Alpine ranges, and is applied to a real world hazard mapping problem. 相似文献
The synthetic amphibole Na0.95(Li0.95Mg1.05)Mg5Si8O22(OH)2 was studied in situ at high-T, using IR OH-stretching spectroscopy and synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction. At room-T the sample has P21/m symmetry, as shown by the FTIR spectrum. It shows in the OH region two well-defined and intense absorptions at 3,748 and
3,712 cm−1, respectively, and two minor bands at 3,667 and 3,687 cm−1. The main bands are assigned to the two independent O–H groups in the primitive structure. The two minor bands evidencing
the presence of small amount of vacant A-site (A□0.05). With increasing T, these bands shift continuously and merge into a unique absorption at high temperature. A change as a function of increasing
T is revealed by the evolution of the refined unit-cell parameters, whose trend shows a transition to C2/m at about 320–330°C. The spontaneous scalar strain, fitted with a tricritical 2–6 Landau potential, gives a Tc of 325(10)°C (β parameter = 0.27). Comparison with the second-order P21/m ⇔ C2/m phase transition at 255°C for synthetic amphibole ANa0.8B(Na0.8Mg1.2)CMg5Si8O22(OH)2 indicates that the substitution of Na with Li at the B-sites strongly affects the thermodynamic character and the Tc of the phase transition. The comparison of LNMSH amphiboles with cummingtonitic ones shows that the high-T thermodynamic behaviour is affected by A-site occupancy. 相似文献
The Uromia–Dokhtar Magmatic Arc (UDMA) is a northwest–southeast trending magmatic belt which is formed due to oblique subduction of Neotethys underneath Central Iran and dominantly comprises magmatic rocks. The Jebal-e-Barez Plutonic Complex (JBPC) is located southeast of the UDMA and composed of quartz diorite, granodiorite, granite, and alkali granite. Magmatic enclaves, ranging in composition from felsic to mafic, are abundant in the studied rocks. Based on the whole rock and mineral chemistry study, the granitoids are typically medium-high K calc-alkaline and metaluminous to peraluminous that show characteristics of I-type granitoids. The high field strength (HFS) and large ionic radius lithophile (LIL) element geochemistry suggests fractional crystallization as a major process in the evolution of the JBPC. The tectonomagmatic setting of the granitoids is compatible with the arc-related granitic suite, a pre-plate collision granitic suite, and a syncollision granitic suite. Field observations and petrographic and geochemical studies suggest that the rocks in this area are I-type granitoids and continental collision granitoids (CCG), continental arc granitoids (CAG), and island arc granitoid (IAG) subsections. The geothermobarometry based on the electron probe microanalysis of amphibole, feldspars, and biotite from selected rocks of JBPC implies that the complex formed at high-level depths (i.e., 9–12 km; upper continental crust) and at temperatures ranging from 650 to 750 °C under oxidation conditions. It seems that JBPC is located within a shear zone period, and structural setting of JBPC is extensional shear fractures which are product of transpression tectonic regime. All available data suggested that these granitoids may be derived from a magmatic arc that was formed by northeastern ward subduction of the Neotethyan oceanic crust beneath the Central Iran in Paleogene and subsequent collision between the Arabian and Iranian plates in Miocene.
The fine-scale heterogeneity of porous media affects the large-scale transport of solutes and contaminants in groundwater and it can be reproduced by means of several geostatistical simulation tools. However, including the available geological information in these tools is often cumbersome. A hierarchical simulation procedure based on a binary tree is proposed and tested on two real-world blocks of alluvial sediments, of a few cubic meters volume, that represent small-scale aquifer analogs. The procedure is implemented using the sequential indicator simulation, but it is so general that it can be adapted to various geostatistical simulation tools, improving their capability to incorporate geological information, i.e., the sedimentological and architectural characterization of heterogeneity. When compared with a standard sequential indicator approach on bi-dimensional simulations, in terms of proportions and connectivity indicators, the proposed procedure yields reliable results, closer to the reference observations. Different ensembles of three-dimensional simulations based on different hierarchical sequences are used to perform numerical experiments of conservative solute transport and to obtain ensembles of equivalent pore velocity and dispersion coefficient at the scale length of the blocks (meter). Their statistics are used to estimate the impact of the variability of the transport properties of the simulated blocks on contaminant transport modeled on bigger domains (hectometer). This is investigated with a one-dimensional transport modeling based on the Kolmogorov-Dmitriev theory of branching stochastic processes. Applying the proposed approach with diverse binary trees and different simulation settings provides a great flexibility, which is revealed by the differences in the breakthrough curves. 相似文献
下载免费PDF全文