A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates          下载免费PDF全文

Michael J. Hollaway  Keith J. Beven  Clare Mc W. H. Benskin  Adrian L. Collins  Robert Evans  Peter D. Falloon  Kirsty J. Forber  Kevin M. Hiscock  Ron Kahana  Christopher J. A. Macleod  Mary C. Ockenden  Martha L. Villamizar  Catherine Wearing  Paul J. A. Withers  Jian G. Zhou  Nicholas J. Barber  Philip M. Haygarth 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2779-2787

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.  相似文献   

New interpretation of the Franciscan mélange at San Simeon coast,California: tectonic intrusion into an accretionary prism     

Yujiro Ogawa  Ryota Mori  Toshiaki Tsunogae  Yildirim Dilek  Ron Harris 《International Geology Review》2015,57(5-8):824-842

Many concepts and interpretations on the formation of the Franciscan mélange have been proposed on the basis of exposures at San Simeon, California. In this paper, we show the distribution of chaotic rocks, their internal structures and textures, and the interrelationship between the chaotic rocks and the surrounding sandstones (turbidites). Mélange components, particularly blueschists, oceanic rocks, including greenstone, pillow lava, bedded chert, limestone, sandstone, and conglomerate, have all been brecciated by retrograde deformation. The Cambria Slab, long interpreted as a trench slope basin, is also strongly deformed by fluidization, brecciation, isoclinal folding, and thrusting, leading us to a new interpretation that turbiditic rocks (including the Cambria Slab) represent trench deposits rather than slope basin sediments. These rocks form an accretionary prism above mélanges that were diapirically emplaced into these rocks first along sinistral-thrust faults, and then along dextral-normal faults. Riedel shear systems are observed in several orders of scale in both stages. Although the exhumation of the blueschist blocks is still controversial, the common extensional fractures and brecciation in most of the blocks in the mélanges and further mixture of various lithologies into one block with mélange muddy matrix indicate that once deeply buried blocks were exhumed from considerable depths to the accretionary prism body, before being diapirically intruded with their host mélange along thrust and normal faults, during which retrograde deformation occurred together with retrograde metamorphism. Recent similar examples of high-pressure rock exhumation have been documented along the Sofugan Tectonic Line in the Izu forearc areas, in the Mineoka belt in the Boso Peninsula, and as part of accretionary prism development in the Nankai and Sagami troughs of Japan. These modern analogues provide actively forming examples of the lithological and deformational features that characterize the Franciscan mélange processes.  相似文献   

Evaluating a process‐based model for use in streambank stabilization: insights on the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM)          下载免费PDF全文

Kate Klavon  Garey Fox  Lucie Guertault  Eddy Langendoen  Holly Enlow  Ron Miller  Anish Khanal 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(1):191-213

Streambank retreat is a complex cyclical process involving subaerial processes, fluvial erosion, seepage erosion, and geotechnical failures and is driven by several soil properties that themselves are temporally and spatially variable. Therefore, it can be extremely challenging to predict and model the erosion and consequent retreat of streambanks. However, modeling streambank retreat has many important applications, including the design and assessment of mitigation strategies for stream revitalization and stabilization. In order to highlight the current complexities of modeling streambank retreat and to suggest future research areas, this paper reviewed one of the most comprehensive streambank retreat models available, the Bank Stability and Toe Erosion Model (BSTEM), which has recently been integrated with several popular hydrodynamic and sediment transport models including the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC‐RAS). The objectives of this paper were to: (i) comprehensively review studies that have utilized BSTEM and report their findings, (ii) address the limitations of the model so that it can be applied appropriately in its current form, and (iii) suggest directions of research that will help make the model a more useful tool in future applications. The paper includes an extensive overview of peer reviewed studies to guide future users of BSTEM. The review demonstrated that the model needs further testing and evaluation outside of the central United States. Also, further development is needed in terms of accounting for spatial and temporal variability in geotechnical and fluvial erodibility parameters, incorporating subaerial processes, and accounting for the influence of riparian vegetation on streambank pore‐water pressure dynamics, applied shear stress, and erodibility parameters. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Upper Pliocene Bowden shell beds,southeast Jamaica     

Stephen K. Donovan  Ron K. Pickerill  David G. Keighley 《Geology Today》2014,30(6):232-238

The Neogene fossil record of the Antilles is particularly rich and can satisfy the interests of most collectors, from foraminifers to vertebrates. The molluscs are among the commonest and most diverse groups, being found in both terrestrial and marine deposits. The Pliocene Bowden shell beds of southeast Jamaica, best known for its hundreds of species of molluscs, also yields diverse members of other groups, the total exceeding 800 species from a mere 5 m of stratigraphical section.  相似文献   

Coupled finite‐element simulation of injection well testing in unconsolidated oil sands reservoir     

Bin Xu  Ron C.K. Wong 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(18):3131-3149

This paper presents a finite‐element (FE) model for simulating injection well testing in unconsolidated oil sands reservoir. In injection well testing, the bottom‐hole pressure (BHP) is monitored during the injection and shut‐in period. The flow characteristics of a reservoir can be determined from transient BHP data using conventional reservoir or well‐testing analysis. However, conventional reservoir or well‐testing analysis does not consider geomechanics coupling effects. This simplified assumption has limitations when applied to unconsolidated (uncemented) oil sands reservoirs because oil sands deform and dilate subjected to pressure variation. In addition, hydraulic fracturing may occur in unconsolidated oil sands when high water injection rate is used. This research is motivated in numerical modeling of injection well testing in unconsolidated oil sands reservoir considering the geomechanics coupling effects including hydraulic fracturing. To simulate the strong anisotropy in mechanical and hydraulic behaviour of unconsolidated oil sands induced by fluid injection in injection well testing, a nonlinear stress‐dependent poro‐elasto‐plastic constitutive model together with a strain‐induced anisotropic permeability model are formulated and implemented into a 3D FE simulator. The 3D FE model is used to history match the BHP response measured from an injection well in an oil sands reservoir. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Bandpass calibration of a wideband spectrometer using coherent pulse injection     

Nipanjana Patra  Justin D. Bray  Paul Roberts  Ron D. Ekers 《Experimental Astronomy》2017,43(2):119-129

We present a relatively simple time domain method for determining the bandpass response of a system by injecting a nanosecond pulse and capturing the system voltage output. A pulse of sub-nanosecond duration contains all frequency components with nearly constant amplitude up to 1 GHz. Hence, this method can accurately determine the system bandpass response to a broadband signal. In a novel variation on this impulse response method, a train of pulses is coherently accumulated providing precision calibration with a simple system. The basic concept is demonstrated using a pulse generator-accumulator setup realised in a Bedlam board which is a high speed digital signal processing unit. The same system was used at the Parkes radio telescope between 2–13 October 2013 and we demonstrate its powerful diagnostic capability. We also present some initial test data from this experiment.  相似文献   

Geomorphological evidence for upslope canyon-forming processes on the northern KwaZulu-Natal shelf,SW Indian Ocean,South Africa     

Andrew N. Green  John A. Goff  Ron Uken 《Geo-Marine Letters》2007,27(6):399-409

A geomorphological and statistical analysis of slope canyons from the northern KwaZulu-Natal continental margin is documented and compared with submarine canyons from the Atlantic margin of the USA. The northern KwaZulu-Natal margin is characterized by increasing upslope relief, concave slope-gradient profiles and features related to upslope growth of the canyon forms. Discounting slope-gradient profile, this morphology is strikingly similar to canyon systems of the New Jersey slope. Several phases of canyon incision indicate that downslope erosion is also an important factor in the evolution of the northern KwaZulu-Natal canyon systems. Despite the strong similarities between the northern KwaZulu-Natal and New Jersey slope-canyon systems, key differences are evident: (1) the concavity of the northern KwaZulu-Natal slope, contrasting with the ∼linear New Jersey slope; (2) the relative isolation of the northern KwaZulu-Natal canyons, rather than the dense clustering of the New Jersey canyons; and (3) the absence of strongly shelf-breaching canyons along the northern KwaZulu-Natal margin. In comparison with the New Jersey margin, we surmise a more youthful stage of canyon evolution, a result of either the canyons themselves being younger or the formative processes being less active. Less complicated patterns of erosion resulting from reduced sediment availability have developed in northern KwaZulu-Natal. The reduction in slope concavity on the New Jersey margin may be the result of grading of the upper slope by intensive headward erosion, a process more subdued—or less evident—on the KwaZulu-Natal margin.  相似文献   

Shoreface translation and the Holocene stratigraphic record: Examples from Nova Scotia, the Mississippi Delta and eastern Australia     

Ron Boyd  Shea Penland 《Marine Geology》1984,60(1-4):391-412

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North American Earth Science Megaproject Continuum, Part 1: LITHOPROBE (1984-2005)     

Ron M. Clowes 《《地质学报》英文版》2018,92(Z1):27-28

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Discovery of possible mega-thrust earthquake along the Seram Trough from records of 1629 tsunami in eastern Indonesian region   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Zac Yung-Chun Liu  Ron A. Harris 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(3):1311-1328

Arthur Wichmann’s “Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago” documents several large earthquakes and tsunami throughout the Banda Arc region that can be interpreted as mega-thrust events. However, the source regions of these events are not known. One of the largest and well-documented events in the catalog is the great earthquake and tsunami affecting the Banda Islands on August 1, 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15-m tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after violent shaking stopped. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of uncommonly frequent seismic activity in the region that tapered off with time, which can be interpreted as aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use an inverse modeling approach to numerically reconstruct the tsunami, which constrains the likely location and magnitude of the 1629 earthquake. Only, linear numerical models are applied due to the low resolution of bathymetry in the Banda Islands and Ambon. Therefore, we apply various wave amplification factors (1.5–4) derived from simulations of recent, well-constrained tsunami to bracket the upper and lower limits of earthquake moment magnitudes for the event. The closest major earthquake sources to the Banda Islands are the Tanimbar and Seram Troughs of the Banda subduction/collision zone. Other source regions are too far away for such a short arrival time of the tsunami after shaking. Moment magnitudes predicted by the models in order to produce a 15-m tsunami are M_w of 9.8–9.2 on the Tanimbar Trough and M_w 8.8–8.2 on the Seram Trough. The arrival times of these waves are 58 min for Tanimbar Trough and 30 min for Seram Trough. The model also predicts 5-m run-up for Ambon from a Tanimbar Trough source, which is inconsistent with the historical records. Ambon is mostly shielded from a wave generated by a Seram Trough source. We conclude that the most likely source of the 1629 mega-thrust earthquake is the Seram Trough. Only one earthquake >M_w 8.0 is recorded instrumentally from the eastern Indonesia region although high rates of strain (50–80 mm/a) are measured across the Seram section of the Banda subduction zone. Enough strain has already accumulated since the last major historical event to produce an earthquake of similar size to the 1629 event. Due to the rapid population growth in coastal areas in this region, it is imperative that the most vulnerable coastal areas prepare accordingly.  相似文献