Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction     

James Glimm  Shuling Hou  Hongjoong Kim  Yoon-ha Lee  David H. Sharp  Kenny Ye  Qisu Zou 《Computational Geosciences》2001,5(3):173-197

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.  相似文献   

Contents of Volume 46     

G. J. Kenny  R. A. Warrick  B. D. Campbell  G. C. Sims  M. Camilleri 《Climatic change》2000,46(4):511-512

Volume Contents

Contents of Volume 46  相似文献   

Whipple telescope observations of LS I +61 303: 2004–2006     

A. Smith  R. W. Atkins  S. Bradbury  O. Celik  Y. C. K. Chow  P. Cogan  C. Dowdall  S. J. Fegan  P. Fortin  D. Gall  G. H. Gillanders  J. Grube  K. J. Gutierrez  T. A. Hall  D. Hanna  J. Holder  D. Horan  S. B. Hughes  T. B. Humensky  I. Jung  P. Kaaret  G. Kenny  M. Kertzman  D. B. Kieda  A. Konopelko  H. Krawczynski  F. Krennrich  M. J. Lang  S. Le Bohec  G. Maier  J. Millis  P. Moriarty  R. A. Ong  J. S. Perkins  K. Ragan  G. H. Sembroski  J. A. Toner  L. Valcarcel  V. V. Vassiliev  R. G. Wagner  S. P. Wakely  T. C. Weekes  R. J. White  D. A. Williams 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2007,309(1-4):299-303

In this paper we present the results of the past two years observations on the galactic microquasar LS I +61 303 with the Whipple 10 m gamma-ray telescope. The recent MAGIC detection of the source between 200 GeV and 4 TeV suggests that the source is periodic with very high energy (VHE) gamma-ray emission linked to its orbital cycle. The entire 50-hour data set obtained with Whipple from 2004 to 2006 was analyzed with no reliable detection resulting. The upper limits obtained in the 2005–2006 season covered several of the same epochs as the MAGIC Telescope detections, albeit with lower sensitivity. Upper limits are placed on emission during the orbital phases of 0→0.1 and 0.8→1, phases which are not included in the MAGIC data set.   相似文献   

The symbiotic star CH Cygni – I. Non-thermal bipolar jets     

M.M. Crocker  R.J. Davis  S.P.S. Eyres  M.F. Bode  A.R. Taylor  A. Skopal  H.T. Kenny 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,326(2):781-787

Very Large Array surface brightness and spectral index maps of the evolving extended emission of the triple symbiotic star CH Cygni are presented. These are derived from observations at 4.8, 8.4 and 14 GHz between 1985 and 1999. The maps are dominated by thermal emission around the central bright peak of the nebula, but we also find unambiguous non-thermal emission associated with the extended regions. Our observations confirm that this is a jet. The central region has been associated with the stellar components through Hubble Space Telescope imaging. If the jets are the result of ejection events at outburst, expansion velocities are consistent with those from other measurement methods. We propose that the non-thermal emission is caused by material ejected in the bipolar jets interacting with the circumstellar wind envelope. The resulting shocks lead to local enhancements in the magnetic field from the compact component of the order of 3 mG.  相似文献   

Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models     

Ayugi  Brian  Shilenje  Zablon Weku  Babaousmail  Hassen  Lim Kam Sian  Kenny T. C.  Mumo  Richard  Dike  Victor Nnamdi  Iyakaremye  Vedaste  Chehbouni  Abdelghani  Ongoma  Victor 《Natural Hazards》2022,113(2):1151-1176

Natural Hazards - The ongoing global warming has caused unprecedented changes in the climate system, leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of weather and climate extremes. This...  相似文献   

Geochemical, Sr–Nd and zircon U–Pb–Hf isotopic studies of Late Carboniferous magmatism in the West Junggar, Xinjiang: Implications for ridge subduction?     

Hongyan Geng  Min Sun  Chao Yuan  Wenjiao Xiao  Weisheng Xian  Guochun Zhao  Lifei Zhang  Kenny Wong  Fuyuan Wu 《Chemical Geology》2009,266(3-4):373-398

Voluminous granitic intrusions are distributed in the West Junggar, NW China, and they can be classified as the dioritic rocks, charnockite and alkali-feldspar granite groups. The dioritic rocks (SiO₂ = 50.4–63.8 wt.%) are calc-alkaline and Mg enriched (average MgO = 4.54 wt.%, Mg^# = 0.39–0.64), with high Sr/Y ratios (average = 21.2), weak negative Eu (average Eu/Eu = 0.80) and pronounced negative Nb–Ta anomalies. Their Sr–Nd and zircon Hf isotopic compositions ((⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i = 0.7035–0.7042, ε_Nd(t) = 4.5–7.9, ε_Hf(t) = 14.1–14.5) show a depleted mantle-like signature. These features are compatible with adakites derived from partial melting of subducted oceanic crust that interacted with mantle materials. The charnockites (SiO₂ = 60.0–65.3 wt.%) show transitional geochemical characteristics from calc-alkaline to alkaline, with weak negative Eu (average Eu/Eu = 0.75) but pronounced negative Nb–Ta anomalies. Sr–Nd and zircon Hf isotopic compositions ((⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i = 0.7037–0.7039, ε_Nd(t) = 5.2–8.0, ε_Hf(t) = 13.9–14.7) also indicate a depleted source, suggesting melts from a hot, juvenile lower crust. Alkali-feldspar granites (SiO₂ = 70.0–78.4 wt.%) are alkali and Fe-enriched, and have distinct negative Eu and Nb–Ta anomalies (average Eu/Eu = 0.26), low Sr/Y ratios (average = 2.11), and depleted Sr–Nd and zircon Hf isotopic compositions ((⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i = 0.7024–0.7045, ε_Nd(t) = 5.1–8.9, ε_Hf(t) = 13.7–14.2). These characteristics are also comparable with those of rocks derived from juvenile lower crust. Despite of the differences in petrology, geochemistry and possibly different origins, zircon ages indicate that these three groups of rocks were coevally emplaced at ~ 305 Ma.A ridge subduction model can account for the geochemical characteristics of these granitoids and coeval mafic rocks. As the “slab window” opened, upwelling asthenosphere provided enhanced heat flux and triggered voluminous magmatisms: partial melting of the subducting slab formed the dioritic rocks; partial melting of the hot juvenile lower crust produced charnockite and alkali-feldspar granite, and partial melting in the mantle wedge generated mafic rocks in the region. These results suggest that subduction was ongoing in the Late Carboniferous and, thus support that the accretion and collision in the Central Asian Orogenic Belt took place in North Xinjiang after 305 Ma, and possibly in the Permian.  相似文献   

Wharf embankment and strengthening program at the Port of Oakland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Frank R. Lobedan  Thomas LaBasco  Kenny Ogunfunmi   《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2002,22(9-12):1125-1130

The wharf and embankment strengthening program (WESP) is a structural modification project involving approximately 12,000 linear feet of pile-supported, marginal wharf structures. WESP is necessary because the Port of Oakland plans to deepen its berths from −42′ mean lower low water (MLLW) to −52′ MLLW, in conjunction with a Federal Government-sponsored channel dredging project. Unless they are structurally reinforced prior to the dredging, the waterfront components (i.e. wharves and embankments) will be weakened by the berth deepening project. WESP is a three-phase program that establishes the existing structural and seismic capacities of waterfront components, develops designs for improvements necessary to maintain these capacities after the berth deepening, and constructs the improvements. WESP also includes consideration of seismic upgrade improvements. The Port is currently completing the first phase of the WESP program. This paper will describe the design criteria, project phasing, construction type of waterfront components, project organization, and results to date for WESP.  相似文献   

Direct observations of bipolar outflow from HM sagittae     

S. P. S. Eyres  R. J. Cohen  R. J. Davis  H. T. Kenny  H. M. Lloyd  M. F. Bode  S. M. Dougherty 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,224(1-2):457-458

We observed HM Sagittae with theMulti-Element Radio Linked Interferometer Network (MERLIN) at 6 cm and 18cm. We find non-thermal bipolar outflow in the eastwest direction, associated with optical emission lines, and thermal ridges to the north and south associated with the UV nebulosity detected by the HST.  相似文献   

A Numerical Case Study of the Implications of Secondary Circulations to the Interpretation of Eddy-Covariance Measurements Over Small Lakes     

William T. Kenny  Gil Bohrer  Timothy H. Morin  Chris S. Vogel  Ashley M. Matheny  Ankur R. Desai 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,163(2):311-326

The CASES-99 experimental data are used to analyze turbulence behaviour under a range of stable conditions using an adaptive method based on Hilbert spectral analysis. The characteristic scales of intrinsic mode functions vary between different stratifications. The second-order Hilbert marginal spectra display clear separation between fine-scale turbulence and large-scale motions. After removing the large-scale motions, the statistical characteristics of the reconstructed signals confirm the distinction of different stratifications in the fine-scale range. The correlation coefficient analyses reveal that the Hilbert spectral analysis method separates turbulence from large-scale motions in the stable boundary layer.  相似文献   

An integrated approach for assessing the relative significance of human pressures and environmental forcing on the status of Large Marine Ecosystems     

Andrew J. Kenny  Hein Rune Skjoldal  Georg H. Engelhard  Peter J. Kershaw  James B. Reid 《Progress in Oceanography》2009,81(1-4):132

An ecosystem approach to the management of the marine environment has received considerable attention over recent years. However, there are few examples which demonstrate its practical implementation. Much of this relates to the history of existing marine monitoring and assessment programmes which (for many countries) are sectoral, making it difficult to integrate monitoring data and knowledge across programmes at the operational level.To address this, a scientific expert group, under the auspices of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), prepared a plan for how ICES could contribute to the development of an Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) for the North Sea by undertaking a pilot study utilising marine monitoring data. This paper presents the main findings arising from the expert group and in particular it sets out one possible integrated approach for assessing the relative significance of environmental forcing and fishing pressure on the ecological status of the North Sea, it then compares the findings with assessments made of other Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs).We define the North Sea ecosystem on the basis of 114 state and pressure variables resolved as annual averages between 1983 and 2003 and at the spatial scale of ICES rectangles. The paper presents results of integrated time-series and spatial analysis which identifies and explains significant spatial and temporal gradients in the data. For example, a significant shift in the status of the North Sea ecosystem (based upon 114 state-pressure variables) is identified to have occurred around 1993. This corresponds to previously documented shifts in the environmental conditions (particularly sea surface temperature) and changes in the distribution of key species of plankton (Calanus sp.), both reported to have occurred in 1989. The difference in specific timing between reported regime shifts for the North Sea may be explained, in part, by time-lag dependencies in the trophic structure of the ecosystem with shifts in higher trophic levels occurring later than 1989.By examining the connection (or relatedness) between ecosystem components (e.g. environment, plankton, fish, fishery and seabirds) for the identified regime states (1983–1993; 1993–2003) we conclude that both the North Sea pelagic and benthic parts of the ecosystem were predominantly top-down (fishery) controlled between 1983 and 1993, whereas between 1993 and 2003 the pelagic stocks shifted to a state responding mainly to bottom-up (environment) influences. However, for the demersal fish stocks between 1993 and 2003 top-down (fishery) pressure dominated even though over this period significant reductions in fishing pressure occurred. The present analysis, therefore, provides further evidence in support of the need for precautionary management measures taken in relation to setting fishery quotas.  相似文献