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Assessing uncertainty in best management practice effectiveness under future climate scenarios 
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下载免费PDF全文 Uncertainty of best management practice (BMP) performance in future climates is an important consideration for water resources managers. The objective of this study was to quantify the level of uncertainty in performance of seven agricultural BMPs due to climate change in reducing sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus loads. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool coupled with mid‐21st century climate data from the Community Climate System Model were used to develop climate change scenarios for the Tuttle Creek Lake Watershed of Kansas and Nebraska. Uncertainty level of each BMP was determined using Latin Hypercube Sampling, a constrained Monte Carlo sampling technique. Samples were taken from distributions of several variables (monthly precipitation, temperature, CO2, and BMP implementation parameters). Cumulative distribution functions were constructed for each BMP, pollutant, and climate scenario combination. Results demonstrated that BMP performance uncertainty is amplified in the extreme climate scenario. Among BMPs, native grass replacement generally had higher uncertainty level but also had the greatest reductions. This study highlights the importance of incorporating uncertainty analysis into mitigation strategies aiming to reduce negative impacts of climate change on water resources. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The ionosphere can be modeled and studied using multi-frequency GNSS signals and their geometry-free linear combination. Therefore, a number of GNSS-derived ionospheric models have been developed and applied in a broad range of applications. However, due to the complexity of estimating the carrier phase ambiguities, most of these models are based on low-accuracy carrier phase smoothed pseudorange data. This, in turn, critically limits their accuracy and applicability. Therefore, we present a new methodology of estimating the phase bias of the scaled L1 and L2 carrier phase difference which is a function of the ambiguities, the ionospheric delay, and hardware delays. This methodology is suitable for ionospheric modeling at regional and continental scales. In addition, we present its evaluation under varying ionospheric conditions. The test results show that the carrier phase bias of geometry-free linear combination can be estimated with a very high accuracy, which consequently allows for calculating ionospheric TEC with the uncertainty lower than 1.0 TECU. This high accuracy makes the resulting ionosphere model suitable for improving GNSS positioning for high-precision applications in geosciences. 相似文献
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Pawel Aleksandrowski 《Journal of Structural Geology》1985,7(1):73-82
A new method of graphic determination of principal stress directions is proposed for slickenside populations produced in anisotropic rocks. Arthaud's concept of movement planes is advanced through studying variations in their pattern relative to the changing values of the principal stresses. These variations are recognizable by means of a simple test based on the Bott equation. In contrast to Arthaud's method, the proposed procedure is applicable to fault populations resulting from stress fields geometrically reproducible by a triaxial ellipsoid. A field example is given to demonstrate the practical utility of the method. 相似文献
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We consider the problem of acoustic pulse propagation through a layered medium with a reflector at one end. The fluctuations in the medium properties are assumed to be strong, i.e. of finite amplitude, rapid in comparison to the typical wavelength and to have statistical structure. The depth of the reflector is assumed to be large in comparison to the wavelength. In this regime, simple formulae for the reflected pulse and its arrival time at the surface are obtained. The amplitude of the pulse is broadened and attenuated as a result of multiple scattering: the fine-layered structure of the medium can be characterized by a single constant which appears in the formula for the limiting waveform and which measures the size of the fluctuations in the medium. Within the theory, the commonly observed discrepancy between the integrated sonic traveltime and the seismic traveltime can be studied and understood. The theory is a natural extension of the long-wavelength effective medium theory of Backus. The analysis is rigorous and based on the invariant embedding technique. 相似文献
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On the reliability of the VCV Matrix: A case study based on GAMIT and Bernese GPS Software 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Israel?KashaniEmail author Pawel?Wielgosz Dorota?A.?Grejner-Brzezinska 《GPS Solutions》2004,8(4):193-199
Commonly, the variance-covariance (VCV) matrix derived from GPS processing software underestimates the magnitude of the error, mainly due to the fact that physical correlations are normally neglected. The GAMIT and Bernese software packages serve the scientific community as important tools for GPS measurement processing and analyzing, especially in precise applications. Therefore, the reliability of the VCV matrices derived by the GAMIT and Bernese packages is of great importance. Formal accuracies derived from both software need to be scaled by applying a scaling factor (SF) that multiplies the software-derived formal errors. However, to the best of our knowledge, no standard approach approved by the GPS community exists. In this report, an analysis is carried out in order to test the reliability and the validity of the VCV matrices in both software, and to provide SFs needed to calculate the realistic accuracies reflecting the actual error levels. The method applied in this study allows deriving SFs for formal accuracies obtained from GAMIT and Bernese. The results attained from the time series of eight days for eight baselines (lengths of 20–415 km) indicate that the overall SF for GAMIT is more than 10 times smaller than for Bernese (1.9 and 23.0, respectively). Although no distance-dependent SF was detected in either case, the session-duration dependence was detected for the Bernese software, while no clear session-duration dependence was observed for the GAMIT. Furthermore, no receiver/antenna dependence could be deduced from the results of this analysis. 相似文献
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Ali Jamali Alias Abdul Rahman Pawel Boguslawski Pankaj Kumar Christopher M. Gold 《GeoJournal》2017,82(1):157-170
Indoor navigation is important for various applications such as disaster management, building modeling, safety analysis etc. In the last decade, indoor environment has been a focus of wide research that includes development of indoor data acquisition techniques, 3D data modeling and indoor navigation. In this research, an automated method for 3D modeling of indoor navigation network has been presented. 3D indoor navigation modeling requires a valid 3D model that can be represented as a cell complex: a model without any gap or intersection such that two cells (e.g. room, corridor) perfectly touch each other. This research investigates an automated method for 3D modeling of indoor navigation network using a geometrical model of indoor building environment. In order to reduce time and cost of surveying process, Trimble LaserAce 1000 laser rangefinder was used to acquire indoor building data which led to the acquisition of an inaccurate geometry of building. The connection between surveying benchmarks was established using Delaunay triangulation. Dijkstra algorithm was used to find shortest path in between building floors. The modeling results were evaluated against an accurate geometry of indoor building environment which was acquired using highly-accurate Trimble M3 total station. This research intends to investigate and propose a novel method of topological navigation network modeling with a less accurate geometrical model to overcome the need of required an accurate geometrical model. To control the uncertainty of the calibration and of the reconstruction of the building from the measurements, interval analysis and homotopy continuation will be investigated in the near future. 相似文献
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Quality assessment of GPS rapid static positioning with weighted ionospheric parameters in generalized least squares 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Pawel Wielgosz 《GPS Solutions》2011,15(2):89-99
Precise GPS positioning requires the processing of carrier-phase observations and fixing integer ambiguities. With increasing
distance between receivers, ambiguity fixing becomes more difficult because ionospheric and tropospheric effects do not cancel
sufficiently in double differencing. A popular procedure in static positioning is to increase the length of the observing
session and/or to apply atmospheric (ionospheric) models and corrections. We investigate the methodology for GPS rapid static
positioning that requires just a few minutes of dual-frequency GPS observations for medium-length baselines. Ionospheric corrections
are not required, but the ionospheric delays are treated as pseudo-observations having a priori values and respective weights.
The tropospheric delays are reduced by using well-established troposphere models, and satellite orbital and clock errors are
eliminated by using IGS rapid products. Several numerical tests based on actual GPS data are presented. It is shown that the
proposed methodology is suitable for rapid static positioning within 50–70 km from the closest reference network station and
that centimeter-level precision in positioning is feasible when using just 1 min of dual-frequency GPS data. 相似文献