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Holger Frey Christian Huggel Yves Bühler Daniel Buis Maria Dulce Burga Walter Choquevilca Felipe Fernandez Javier García Hernández Claudia Giráldez Edwin Loarte Paul Masias Cesar Portocarrero Luis Vicuña Marco Walser 《Landslides》2016,13(6):1493-1507
The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country. 相似文献
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An investigation of the crustal response in the time and frequency domains is presented to show that for models with similar crustal transit times of P and S waves, any important changes in the internal configuration of the crust such as layering, layer thickness and velocity contrast only influence the amplitudes of the transfer function ratio. Frequency positions of peaks and troughs remain unperturbed unless the total transit time of P and/or S waves through the crust are varied. This would imply that fine crustal structure derived from a matching of peak positions of observed spectral ratios with theoretical transfer function ratios, as is commonly practiced, is not very meaningful. This limitation in the application of the spectral ratio method for detailed crustal structure is demonstrated using two recent applications of this technique. 相似文献
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Antonio Jesús Espejo‐Pérez Luca Brocca Tommaso Moramarco Juan V. Giráldez John Triantafilis Karl Vanderlinden 《水文研究》2016,30(23):4339-4352
Olive cultivation is a widespread land use in Mediterranean climates. The proper implementation of soil and water conservation practices in groves requires detailed knowledge of the governing hydrological processes. In this work topsoil moisture dynamics under wet and dry conditions and across a small catchment was investigated in the inter row (IR) and directly under the olive tree canopies (UC). We do this using a sensor network (11 stations) and a simple bucket model which was calibrated (June, 2011–2012) and validated (June, 2012–2013). During most of the year the normalized soil moisture contents (s) were greater in the IR than under UC, with an average normalized soil moisture difference of 0.12. The difference between UC and IR normalized soil moisture followed a seasonal pattern, reaching a maximum near 0.30 during spring. An analysis of the normalized soil moisture probability density functions (pdfs) was bimodal, showing characteristic dominant wet and dry soil moisture states, with the highest probability densities for the dry state. Overall the spatial variability of soil moisture was lower UC than in the IR. This was a result of the soil moisture buffering capacity of the canopy with respect to rainfall and evaporation, in addition to observed differences in soil properties. Hourly soil moisture data were successfully modelled (R2 > 0.85), both UC and in the IR, yet with the inclusion of a simple formulation for canopy interception for the former. The results provide insight into how olive trees change hydrological processes in their neighbourhood. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Review of Quantitative Surveys of the Length and Stability of MTBE,TBA, and Benzene Plumes in Groundwater at UST Sites 
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下载免费PDF全文 Quantitative information regarding the length and stability condition of groundwater plumes of benzene, methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE), and tert‐butyl alcohol (TBA) has been compiled from thousands of underground storage tank (UST) sites in the United States where gasoline fuel releases have occurred. This paper presents a review and summary of 13 published scientific surveys, of which 10 address benzene and/or MTBE plumes only, and 3 address benzene, MTBE, and TBA plumes. These data show the observed lengths of benzene and MTBE plumes to be relatively consistent among various regions and hydrogeologic settings, with median lengths at a delineation limit of 10 µg/L falling into relatively narrow ranges from 101 to 185 feet for benzene and 110 to 178 feet for MTBE. The observed statistical distributions of MTBE and benzene plumes show the two plume types to be of comparable lengths, with 90th percentile MTBE plume lengths moderately exceeding benzene plume lengths by 16% at a 10‐µg/L delineation limit (400 feet vs. 345 feet) and 25% at a 5‐µg/L delineation limit (530 feet vs. 425 feet). Stability analyses for benzene and MTBE plumes found 94 and 93% of these plumes, respectively, to be in a nonexpanding condition, and over 91% of individual monitoring wells to exhibit nonincreasing concentration trends. Three published studies addressing TBA found TBA plumes to be of comparable length to MTBE and benzene plumes, with 86% of wells in one study showing nonincreasing concentration trends. 相似文献
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Most studies on runoff and soil loss from olive orchards were performed on plots, despite the fact that measurements that examine a range of erosive processes on different scales are essential to evaluate the suitability of the use and soil management of this type of land. The main environmental limitations of much of the land used for olive orchards in the Mediterranean are the steep slopes and the shallow soil depth – and this was the case in the study area. Soil erosion and runoff over two hydrological years (2005–2006 and 2006–2007) were monitored in an olive orchard microcatchment of 6·1 ha under no‐tillage with spontaneous grass in order to evaluate its hydrological and erosive behaviour. Moreover, soil parameters such as organic matter (%OM), bulk density (BD) and hydraulic saturated conductivity (Ks) were also examined in the microcatchment to describe management effects on hydrological balance and on erosive processes. In the study period, the results showed runoff coefficients of 6·0% in the first year and 0·9% in the second. The differences respond to the impact of two or three yearly maximum events which were decisive in the annual balances. On the event scale, although maximum rainfall intensity values had a big influence on peak flows and runoff, its importance on mean sediment concentrations and sediment discharges was difficult to interpret due to the likely control of grass cover on volume runoff and on soil protection. In the case of annual soil erosion, they were measured as 1·0 Mg ha?1 yr?1 and 0·3 Mg ha?1 yr?1. Both are lower than the tolerance values evaluated in Andalusia (Spain). These results support the implementation of no‐tillage with spontaneous grass cover for sloping land, although the reduced infiltration conditions determined by Ks in the first horizon suggest grass should be allowed to grow not only in spring but also in autumn. In addition, specific measurements to control gullies, which have formed in the terraced area in the catchment, should be included since it is expected that they could be the main sources of sediments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Andrea Román-Sánchez Ana Laguna Tony Reimann Juan Vicente Giráldez Adolfo Peña Tom Vanwalleghem 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(10):2066-2080
Particles on soil-mantled hillslopes are subject to downslope transport by erosion processes and vertical mixing by bioturbation. Both are key processes for understanding landscape evolution and soil formation, and affect the functioning of the critical zone. We show here how the depth–age information, derived from feldspar-based single grain post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (pIRIR), can be used to simultaneously quantify erosion and bioturbation processes along a hillslope. In this study, we propose, for the first time, an analytical solution for the diffusion–advection equation to calculate the diffusivity constant and erosion–deposition rates. We have fitted this model to age–depth data derived from 15 soil samples from four soil profiles along a catena located under natural grassland in the Santa Clotilde Critical Zone Observatory, in the south of Spain. A global sensitivity analysis was used to assess the relative importance of each model parameter in the output. Finally, the posterior probability density functions were calculated to evaluate the uncertainty in the model parameter estimates. The results show that the diffusivity constant at the surface varies from 11.4 to 81.9 mm2 a-1 for the hilltop and hill-base profile, respectively, and between 7.4 and 64.8 mm2 a-1 at 50 cm depth. The uncertainty in the estimation of the erosion–deposition rates was found to be too high to make a reliable estimate, probably because erosion–deposition processes are much slower than bioturbation processes in this environment. This is confirmed by a global sensitivity analysis that shows how the most important parameters controlling the age–depth structure in this environment are the diffusivity constant and regolith depth. Finally, we have found a good agreement between the soil reworking rates proposed by earlier studies, considering only particle age and depth, and the estimated diffusivity constants. The soil reworking rates are effective rates, corrected for the proportion of particles actually participating in the process. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The process of tillage translocation is well studied and can be described adequately by different existing models. Nevertheless, in complex environments with numerous obstacles, such as olive orchards, the application of conventional tillage erosion models is not straightforward. However, such obstacles have important effects on the spatial pattern of soil redistribution and on resulting soil properties. Cellular automata could provide a valuable alternative here. This study aims at developing a cellular automata model for tillage translocation (CATT) that can take into account such obstacles, exploring its possibilities and limitations. Firstly, model outcome was tested on a traditional field with rolling topography, for which caesium‐137 (137Cs) inventories are available. The observed spatial soil redistribution patterns could be adequately represented by the CATT model. Secondly, a global sensitivity analysis was performed to explore the effect of input parameter uncertainty on several selected model outputs. The variance‐based extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) method was used to determine first‐ and total‐order sensitivity indices. Tillage depth was identified as the input parameter that determined most of the output variance, followed respectively by tillage direction and speed. The high difference between the total‐ and first‐order sensitivity indices indicated that, in spite of the simple model structure, the model behaves non‐linearly with respect to some of the model output variables. Higher order interactions were especially important for determining the proportion of eroding and deposition cells. Finally, simulations were performed to analyse the model behaviour in complex landscapes, applying it to a field with protruding obstacles (representing olive trees). The model adequately represented some morphological features observed in actual olive orchards, such as mounds around the olive trees. The results show that cellular automata are an appropriate tool to describe long‐term tillage soil redistribution. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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A conceptual insytnataneous unit hydrograph (IUH) based on geomorphologival association of linear reservoirs (GR) previously developed by the authors has been compared with other IUH models: a distributed GR variation (GR(v)), the Nash IUH, the Chutha and Dooge IUH, and the Troutman and Karlinger IUH for the analysis of direct runoff hydrographs recorded in three experimental watershed of the north of Spain. The comparison was made through a calibration‐validation process in which a leave‐one‐out cross‐validation method was applied. The results indicate the satisfactory performance of all the models, with the advantage for the GR model of the dependence on only one parameter, which can be identified from the watershed and event characteristics. This property makes its use easier than that of other models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献