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Short-term risk forecasts of point precipitation are obtained with COTREC/RainCast, a technique for extrapolation of radar images. The risk forecasts are updated every 5 min for the next 0–2 h. Risk levels are defined for moderate, heavy and extreme precipitation. Warning messages are generated if, at the locations of 23 rain gauges, these risk levels are reached or exceeded. The time-resolved gauge data are used to judge if the warning messages are in time, early or late.Data over a period of 4 months (summer 2002) are used for verification. The largest number of warnings (1790) was obtained for moderate precipitation. About 55% of these warnings were in time, 23% were early and 22% were late. This finding is in a good agreement with the defined risk level for warnings (50%), indicating that the model for calculating the risk factors is reliable. Less warnings in time, and more late warnings were found for heavy and extreme precipitation. Hence, the risk levels need to be lowered for heavy and extreme precipitation, in order to reduce the number of late warnings. 相似文献
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The development of the phytoplankton spring bloom in Lake Zürich in 1983 was investigated using frequent sampling with short sampling intervals, which allowed the influence of short-term meteorological events on the bloom to be studied. The bloom can be divided into four distinct growth periods (March 1–April 28) and a period of collapse (April 29–May 16). During the four growth periods, growth pulses were found to be associated with high solar radiation, little wind and a shallow mixed layer, whereas stagnation or loss was associated with strong winds and a consequent deepening of the mixed layer, resulting in an unfavourable effective light climate. The population collapse was brought about by zooplankton grazing, possibly coupled with nutrient limitation and other factors. 相似文献
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The purpose of GPS-satellite-to-satellite tracking (GPS-SST) is to determine the gravitational potential at the earth's surface from measured ranges (geometrical distances) between a low-flying satellite and the high-flying satellites of the Global Positioning System (GPS). In this paper, GPS-satellite-to-satellite tracking is reformulated as the problem of determining the gravitational potential of the earth from given gradients at satellite altitude. The uniqueness and stability of the solution are investigated. The essential tool is to split the gradient field into a normal part (i.e. the first-order radial derivative) and a tangential part (i.e. the surface gradient). Uniqueness is proved for polar, circular orbits corresponding to both types of data (first radial derivative and/or surface gradient). In both cases gravity recovery based on satellite-to-satellite tracking turns out to be an exponentially ill-posed problem. Regularization in terms of spherical wavelets is proposed as an appropriate solution method, based on the knowledge of the singular system. Finally, the extension of this method is generalized to a nonspherical earth and a non-spherical orbital surface, based on combined terrestrial and satellite data. 相似文献
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Freezing of rainwater on a surface is often caused by nocturnal clearing after precipitation, which goes along with radiative cooling. Forecasting cloudiness, and especially the risk of clearing, on a scale of 1 to 3 h is of interest in the domains of road weather, agriculture, or water management.Cloud amount and the difference between air and surface temperature are important parameters of the radiation balance. In this contribution, we show the relationship between them, proved at several stations all over Switzerland. We found a correlation coefficient of 0.88 and improved it considering other meteorological parameters like wind speed. We conclude that temperature difference is a signature for nocturnal cloudiness.We investigated nocturnal cloudiness for a case from winter 2001/02 in northern Switzerland. An ultra-dense combination of two networks with 70 stations in total is operated, measuring air and surface temperature, wind and other parameters. With the aid of our equations, these measurements where converted into cloud maps, including also precipitation seen by radar. We identified a frontal precipitation area, postfrontal clearing, freezing, and the first clouds of a following frontal passage.All these findings will contribute to a better observation and predictability of surface state and other risks connected with radiative cooling. 相似文献
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Willi Freeden 《Journal of Geodesy》1980,54(1):1-20
Summary Let S be the (regular) boundary-surface of an exterior regionE
e
in Euclidean space ℜ3 (for instance: sphere, ellipsoid, geoid, earth's surface). Denote by {φn} a countable, linearly independent system of trial functions (e.g., solid spherical harmonics or certain singularity functions)
which are harmonic in some domain containingE
e
∪ S. It is the purpose of this paper to show that the restrictions {ϕn} of the functions {φn} onS form a closed system in the spaceC (S), i.e. any functionf, defined and continuous onS, can be approximated uniformly by a linear combination of the functions ϕn.
Consequences of this result are versions of Runge and Keldysh-Lavrentiev theorems adapted to the chosen system {φn} and the mathematical justification of the use of trial functions in numerical (especially: collocational) procedures. 相似文献
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The International Association of Hydrogeologists (IAH): reflecting on 60 years of contributions to groundwater science and water management 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The 60th anniversary of the founding of the International Association of Hydrogeologists (IAH) is an important milestone that allows pause for reflection on how the association has evolved over the years and the contributions it has made to groundwater science and water management. IAH was founded in 1956 at the 20th International Geological Congress and developed rapidly during the 1980s and 1990s in response to a growing global interest in groundwater mapping and in sound approaches to resource protection and sustainable aquifer management. Incorporated in 2000, IAH has now secured its position as the world’s leading international association specialising in groundwater with over 4,100 members in 131 countries. Much credit for this success must go to members, past and present, whose individual efforts and collaboration with sister institutions are documented here. These members have shaped the association’s goals and contributed selflessly to its scientific programmes, publications and educational and charitable activities. Looking ahead to the next 60 years, it is essential that IAH does not rest on past achievements but listens and adjusts to the needs of members while continuing to pursue its mission of furthering the understanding, wise use and protection of groundwater resources throughout the world. 相似文献
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keV protons observed by the ESRO 1A satellite in the upper atmosphere equatorward of the main precipitation zone are described and discussed. The protons are highly anisotropic (empty loss cone) between the low-latitude boundary of the main precipitation zone and approximately L=4 during quiet and moderately disturbed conditions (Kp=0?4). Between L=4 and L=2.7 the proton flux is generally enhanced compared to that at L values somewhat above 4 and only moderately anisotropic. Substorms push the outer main precipitation zone equatorwards, but the boundaries of the innermost, moderately anisotropic region (at L=2.7 and L=4) move only when strong magnetic storms compress the plasmasphere to within L=4. It is suggested that the moderately anisotropic zone is caused by the ion-cyclotron instability for which the growth rate may have a broad maximum between about L=2.7 and L=4. For proton energies in the keV range the instability is excited only in regions with cold plasma densities above several hundred ions per cubic centimeter. It is finally concluded that the observations of low-latitude proton precipitation lend further support to the mechanism of ion-cyclotron instability as the cause of proton pitch angle diffusion, as proposed by Cornwall et al. (1970). 相似文献