城市内涝灾害受灾人口评估方法与实证研究：以哈尔滨市道里区为例     

陈鹏  赵洪阳  张继权  张硕  鲍建华  刘晓静 《地理科学》2020,40(1):158-164

城市内涝灾害频发,对居民生命安全造成严重威胁,为提高城市内涝灾害受灾人口评估精度,提出一种更为精确的受灾人口评估方法。以哈尔滨市道里区为研究区,以城市内涝灾害受灾人口为研究对象,运用一、二维非恒定流为主控方程,构建城市内涝数值模拟模型,并结合受灾人口分布特点,综合构建基于土地利用的人口随时间变化的计算模型。实现在模拟内涝灾害影响范围基础上,利用受灾人口计算模型提取白天与夜晚受灾人口分布情况。结果表明：研究区在百年一遇降雨情景下,有25条街道会发生不同程度积水,积水深度范围值为0.10~1.42 m;此级别内涝灾害在白天11条街道受灾人口数量最大值达到3 500人,夜晚10条街道受灾人口数量最大值为720人。  相似文献   

An overview of clustering methods for geo-referenced time series: from one-way clustering to co- and tri-clustering     

Xiaojing Wu  Raul Zurita-Milla  Changqing Song 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(9):1822-1848

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Modeling spatially non-stationary land use/cover change in the lower Connecticut River Basin by combining geographically weighted logistic regression and the CA-Markov model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hui Wang  Scott R. Stephenson  Shijin Qu 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(7):1313-1334

Simulating land use/cover change (LUCC) and determining its transition rules have been a focus of research for several decades. Previous studies used ordinary logistic regression (OLR) to determine transition rules in cellular automata (CA) modeling of LUCC, which often neglected the spatially non-stationary relationships between driving factors and land use/cover categories. We use an integrated geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) CA-Markov method to simulate LUCC from 2001–2011 over 29 towns in the Connecticut River Basin. Results are compared with those obtained from the OLR-CA-Markov method, and the sensitivity of LUCC simulated by the GWLR-CA-Markov method to the spatial non-stationarity-based suitability map is investigated. Analysis of residuals indicates better goodness of fit in model calibration for geographically weighted regression (GWR) than OLR. Coefficients of driving factors indicate that GWLR outperforms OLR in depicting the local suitability of land use/cover categories. Kappa statistics of the simulated maps indicate high agreement with observed land use/cover for both OLR-CA-Markov and GWLR-CA-Markov methods. Similarity in simulation accuracy between the methods suggests that the sensitivity of simulated LUCC to suitability inputs is low with respect to spatial non-stationarity. Therefore, this study provides critical insight on the role of spatial non-stationarity throughout the process of LUCC simulation.  相似文献   

Analog simulation of urban construction land supply and demand in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration based on land intensive use     

Xiong  Ying  Chen  Yun  Peng  Fen  Li  Jingzhi  Yan  Xiaojing 《地理学报(英文版)》2019,29(8):1346-1362

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Urban land intensive use is an important indicator in harmonizing the relationship between land supply and demand. The system dynamics (SD) can be used to...  相似文献   

A sequential sparse polynomial chaos expansion using Bayesian regression for geotechnical reliability estimations     

Qiujing Pan  Xingru Qu  Leilei Liu  Daniel Dias 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(6):874-889

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been widely employed to estimate failure probabilities in geotechnical engineering. However, PCEs suffer from two deficiencies: (a) PCE coefficients are solved by the least-square minimization method which easily causes overfitting issues; (b) building a high order PCE is often computationally expensive. In order to overcome the aforementioned drawbacks, the Bayesian regression technique is employed to evaluate PCE coefficients, which not only provides a sparse solution but also avoids overfitting. With the aid of the predictive means and variances given by Bayesian analysis, a learning function is proposed to sequentially select the most informative samples that are critical to build a PCE. This sequential learning scheme can highly enhance the computational efficiency of PCEs. Besides, importance sampling (IS) is incorporated into the sequential learning (SL)-PCEs to deal with geotechnical problems with small failure probabilities. The proposed method of SL-PCE-IS is applied to three illustrative examples, which shows that the improved PCE method is more effective and efficient than the common PCEs method, leading to accurate estimations of small failure probabilities using fewer training samples.  相似文献   

The Structure of Potential Amur Tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) Habitats and Evaluation of Its Prey in Taipingou National Reserve (China) Based on Remote Sensing Data     

Shibing Zhu  Qu  Yi  Liu  Yingzhu  Dobrynin  D. V.  Sukhova  O. V.  Kotlov  I. P.  Sandlersky  R. B.  Yachmennikova  A. A.  Rozhnov  V. V. 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2020,56(9):1107-1126

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The population of the Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) in the Russian Far East is currently being restored; young individuals are being spread...  相似文献   

包兰铁路沙坡头段不同编制结构的枝条阻沙栅栏防护效应风洞模拟     

康文岩  王立  屈建军  卢琴春 《中国沙漠》2020,40(2):94-99

对包兰铁路沙坡头段枝条阻沙栅栏流场结构进行风洞模拟试验。结果表明:气流在经过横向、竖向阻沙栅栏时均出现了明显的流速分区。气流在经过阻沙栅栏时速度会减弱,但是竖向枝条阻沙栅栏的综合阻风防沙效果明显优于横向阻沙栅栏,同时竖向枝条阻沙栅栏制作上具有工序简单、原材料广泛及不受枝条长度限制的特性,因此,在防沙治沙应用中,竖向枝条阻沙栅栏更适合推广。虽然孔隙度是阻沙栅栏设计的重要技术参数,但栅栏结构对风沙流场产生直接影响,是决定着其对风沙活动防护效应高低的关键因子。  相似文献   

地理时空三向聚类分析方法的构建与实践   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

程昌秀  宋长青  吴晓静  沈石  高培超  叶思菁 《地理学报》2020,75(5):904-916

随着地理数据获取能力的不断提升,地理数据体量呈指数增长,数据种类、数据性质更加多元化。对数据的有效甄别和归类成为理解地理现象时空特征、演化过程和行为机制的关键。传统聚类方法面临数据体量大、维数高、质量差的挑战,加之对地理空间与时间关联分析的需求,对聚类方法改进和提升研究的要求越来越迫切。本文介绍了从单向到三向聚类构建思路的变革。单向聚类是仅在样本或属性方向上进行聚类,易忽视非常相似的局部特征、易犯“横看成岭侧成峰”的错误。双向聚类是基于数据矩阵内元素值的相似性,形成一个子矩阵分割方案,使子矩阵内元素相似度尽可能高,子矩阵间元素相似度尽可能低,从而实现行列两方向的同时聚类,避免了单向聚类的不足。鉴于双向聚类难以满足地理研究超出双向的解译需求,本文提出并研发了一个全新的三向聚类方法,给出了运用该方法开展地理时空格局过程探测的流程,总结了如何根据研究涉及的“空间—时间—尺度—属性”构建三维数据体;最后,展示了三向聚类的地理实践案例。结果表明：① 三向聚类是一种大数据时代探测地理数据时空分异规律的有效方法,可以解决数据维度高、质量低等问题;② 面对不同的地理问题,三向聚类在算法层面上是通用的,不同之处仅在于：根据不同问题涉及的空间、时间、尺度、属性的不同,构建不同的数据体;不同数据体聚类得到的不同结果回答不同的地理问题;③ 三向聚类可以实现地理数据的时空分异规律多方向、多尺度、多层次的联合解译,揭示地理特征时空尺度叠加效应。最后,论文强调根据地理问题组织数据的重要性,期待未来能够提升三向聚类在多空间尺度、多属性方面的地理研究实践。  相似文献   

基于广义回归神经网络的全球表层海水1°×1°二氧化碳分压数据推演     

钟国荣  李学刚  曲宝晓  王彦俊  袁华茂  宋金明 《海洋学报》2020,42(10):70-79

表层海水二氧化碳分压是评估海洋碳源汇强度的关键参数，但其实测数据较少、时空分布极不均匀，导致二氧化碳交换通量的估算有很大的不确定性，海洋源汇特征就不能确切获取。为了解决这个难题，在收集的表层大洋二氧化碳地图(Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas，SOCAT)实测数据集基础上，运用广义回归神经网络建立二氧化碳分压与经纬度、时间、温度、盐度和叶绿素浓度间的非线性关系，构建了1998?2018年间全球1°×1°经纬度的表层海水二氧化碳分压格点数据，其标准误差为16.93 μatm，平均相对误差为2.97%，优于现有研究中的前反馈神经网络、自组织映射神经网络和机器学习算法等方法。根据构建的数据所绘制的全球表层海水二氧化碳分压的分布与现有研究有较好的一致性。  相似文献   

The Impact of Tibetan Plateau Snow Cover on the Summer Temperature in Central Asia     

Xuke LIU  Xiaojing JIA  Min WANG  Qifeng QIAN 《大气科学进展》2022,39(7):1103-1114

The current work examines the impact of the snow cover extent (SCE) of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) on the interannual variation in the summer (June?July?August) surface air temperature (SAT) over Central Asia (CA) (SAT_CA) during the 1979?2019 period. The leading mode of the summer SAT_CA features a same-sign temperature anomalies in CA and explains 62% of the total variance in SAT_CA. The atmospheric circulation associated with a warming SAT_CA is characterized by a pronounced high-pressure system dominating CA. The high-pressure system is accompanied by warm advection as well as descending motion over CA, favoring the warming of the SAT_CA. Analysis shows that the interannual variation in the summer SAT_CA is significantly positively correlated with the April SCE over the central-eastern TP. In April, higher than normal SCE over the central-eastern TP has a pronounced cooling effect on the column of the atmosphere above the TP and can persist until the following early summer. Negative and positive height anomalies appear above and to the west of the TP. In the following months, the perturbation forcing generated by the TP SCE anomalies lies near the western center of the Asian subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), which promotes atmospheric waves in the zonal direction guided by the Asian SWJ. Associated with this atmospheric wave, in the following summer, a significant high-pressure system dominates CA, which is a favorable condition for a warm summer SAT_CA.  相似文献