Modeling spatially non-stationary land use/cover change in the lower Connecticut River Basin by combining geographically weighted logistic regression and the CA-Markov model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Hui Wang  Scott R. Stephenson  Shijin Qu 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(7):1313-1334

Simulating land use/cover change (LUCC) and determining its transition rules have been a focus of research for several decades. Previous studies used ordinary logistic regression (OLR) to determine transition rules in cellular automata (CA) modeling of LUCC, which often neglected the spatially non-stationary relationships between driving factors and land use/cover categories. We use an integrated geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) CA-Markov method to simulate LUCC from 2001–2011 over 29 towns in the Connecticut River Basin. Results are compared with those obtained from the OLR-CA-Markov method, and the sensitivity of LUCC simulated by the GWLR-CA-Markov method to the spatial non-stationarity-based suitability map is investigated. Analysis of residuals indicates better goodness of fit in model calibration for geographically weighted regression (GWR) than OLR. Coefficients of driving factors indicate that GWLR outperforms OLR in depicting the local suitability of land use/cover categories. Kappa statistics of the simulated maps indicate high agreement with observed land use/cover for both OLR-CA-Markov and GWLR-CA-Markov methods. Similarity in simulation accuracy between the methods suggests that the sensitivity of simulated LUCC to suitability inputs is low with respect to spatial non-stationarity. Therefore, this study provides critical insight on the role of spatial non-stationarity throughout the process of LUCC simulation.  相似文献   

基于区域水准和跨断层资料分析云南地区地壳形变     

徐东卓  苏广利  王世进  朱传宝  孙非非 《震灾防御技术》2019,14(1):118-128

为了获取云南地区现今地壳形变和断层活动特征，收集了云南地区1992—2016年的2期精密水准观测资料，采用基于GNSS连续站垂直形变资料约束的平差方法，对区域整体地壳垂直形变特征进行了分析，结果显示滇西北区域地壳整体表现为隆升，垂向速率为2—3mm/a，滇南区域显示地壳沉降速率为-1—-2mm/a，并在下关—永胜和思茅—景谷一带存在地壳形变高梯度带。收集了该地区30多年的跨断层场地观测资料，计算了所跨断层的三维活动量，得出了断层现今活动状态和异常特征，认为滇西北和滇中南地区的场地多数表现出异常活动的现象，其中楚雄、剑川和永胜的监测断层现今表现出与地质背景相反的走滑和拉张特征，峨山、建水和通海场地所处断层在张压性质上与地质背景相反。结合区域水准和跨断层观测分析结果，从“面”和“线”上得出滇西北和滇中南地区存在地壳形变和断层活动异常，构造应力积累较高的结果，加之缺震背景显著，认为应关注该区域中强地震的危险性。  相似文献   

Seismic responses of postyield hardening single–degree-of-freedom systems incorporating high-strength elastic material     

Hanlin Qiang  Peng Feng  Zhe Qu 《地震工程与结构动力学》2019,48(6):611-633

It is widely accepted that ductility design improves the seismic capacity of structures worldwide. Nevertheless, inelastic deformation allows serious damage to occur in structures. Previous studies have shown that a certain level of postyield stiffness may reduce both the peak displacement and residual deformation of a structure. In recent years, several high-strength elastic materials, such as fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) and high-strength steel bars, have been developed. Application of these materials can easily provide a structure with a much higher and more stable postyield stiffness. Many materials, members, and structures that incorporate both high-strength elastic materials and conventional materials show significant postyield hardening (PYH) behaviors. The significant postyield stiffness of PYH structures can help effectively reduce both peak and residual deformations, providing a choice when designing resilient structures. However, the findings of previous studies of structures with elastic-perfectly plastic (EPP) behavior or small postyield stiffness may not be accurate for PYH structures. The postyield stiffness of a structure must be considered an important primary structural parameter, in addition to initial stiffness, yielding strength, and ductility. In this paper, extensive time history and statistical analyses are carried out for PYH single–degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems. The mean values and coefficients of variation of the peak displacement and residual deformation are obtained and discussed. A new R-μ_p-T-α relationship and damage index for PYH structures are proposed. A theoretical model for the calculation of residual deformation is also established. These models provide a basis for developing the appropriate seismic design and performance evaluation procedures for PYH structures.  相似文献   

P波斜入射角对沉管隧道地震响应的影响     

陆耀波  崔杰  渠建新  袁杰 《震灾防御技术》2018,13(3):562-570

为了研究P波斜入射对沉管隧道地震响应的影响，以港珠澳大桥沉管隧道为工程背景，考虑上覆海水与海床、沉管隧道之间耦合作用，采用粘弹性边界和等效力的地震荷载输入方式，利用ADINA软件建立三维有限元模型进行地震响应分析。分析入射角为0°、20°、40°、50°、60°时P波对沉管隧道环向应力峰值（正应力峰值、剪应力峰值）和位移峰值的影响，结果表明:入射角为40°时，沉管隧道应力峰值最大；入射角为0°—40°时，隧道的应力峰值逐渐增大，入射角为40°—60°时，隧道的应力峰值逐渐减小；隧道截面4个转角处及隔墙与顶板、底板的连接处为隧道剪应力峰值最大处；隧道截面左侧剪应力峰值远大于右侧；隧道顶板正应力峰值最大，顶板的正应力峰值大约为底板的2倍；隧道截面左侧位移峰值远大于隧道截面右侧。  相似文献   

Effects of Solid Organic Wastes on Soil Particulate Organic Carbon Structure Under Different Water Conditions     

Xiaojing Qu  Jinggui Wu  Jinghong Zhao  Jianming Li  Juan Hu  Opoku‐Kwanowaa Yaa 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2019,47(8)

  相似文献   

A sequential sparse polynomial chaos expansion using Bayesian regression for geotechnical reliability estimations     

Qiujing Pan  Xingru Qu  Leilei Liu  Daniel Dias 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2020,44(6):874-889

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been widely employed to estimate failure probabilities in geotechnical engineering. However, PCEs suffer from two deficiencies: (a) PCE coefficients are solved by the least-square minimization method which easily causes overfitting issues; (b) building a high order PCE is often computationally expensive. In order to overcome the aforementioned drawbacks, the Bayesian regression technique is employed to evaluate PCE coefficients, which not only provides a sparse solution but also avoids overfitting. With the aid of the predictive means and variances given by Bayesian analysis, a learning function is proposed to sequentially select the most informative samples that are critical to build a PCE. This sequential learning scheme can highly enhance the computational efficiency of PCEs. Besides, importance sampling (IS) is incorporated into the sequential learning (SL)-PCEs to deal with geotechnical problems with small failure probabilities. The proposed method of SL-PCE-IS is applied to three illustrative examples, which shows that the improved PCE method is more effective and efficient than the common PCEs method, leading to accurate estimations of small failure probabilities using fewer training samples.  相似文献   

The Structure of Potential Amur Tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) Habitats and Evaluation of Its Prey in Taipingou National Reserve (China) Based on Remote Sensing Data     

Shibing Zhu  Qu  Yi  Liu  Yingzhu  Dobrynin  D. V.  Sukhova  O. V.  Kotlov  I. P.  Sandlersky  R. B.  Yachmennikova  A. A.  Rozhnov  V. V. 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2020,56(9):1107-1126

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The population of the Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) in the Russian Far East is currently being restored; young individuals are being spread...  相似文献   

Differential physiological responses of the coastal cyanobacterium <Emphasis Type="Italic">Synechococcus</Emphasis> sp. PCC7002 to elevated <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis>CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> at lag,exponential, and stationary growth phases     

Shanli Mou  Gang Li  Hongmei Li  Fazhong Li  Zhisheng Shao  Jinsong Li  Changfeng Qu  Yongyu Zhang 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2018,61(10):1397-1405

We studied the effects of expected end-of-the-century pCO₂ (1000 ppm) on the photosynthetic performance of a coastal marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC7002 during the lag, exponential, and stationary growth phases. Elevated pCO₂ significantly stimulated growth, and enhanced the maximum cell density during the stationary phase. Under ambient pCO₂ conditions, the lag phase lasted for 6 days, while elevated pCO₂ shortened the lag phase to two days and extended the exponential phase by four days. The elevated pCO₂ increased photosynthesis levels during the lag and exponential phases, but reduced them during the stationary phase. Moreover, the elevated pCO₂ reduced the saturated growth light (Ik) and increased the light utilization efficiency (α) during the exponential and stationary phases, and elevated the phycobilisome:chlorophyll a (Chl a) ratio. Furthermore, the elevated pCO₂ reduced the particulate organic carbon (POC):Chl a and particulate organic nitrogen (PON):Chl a ratios during the lag and stationary phases, but enhanced them during the exponential phase. Overall, Synechococcus showed differential physiological responses to elevated pCO₂ during different growth phases, thus providing insight into previous studies that focused on only the exponential phase, which may have biased the results relative to the effects of elevated pCO₂ in ecology or aquaculture.  相似文献   

包兰铁路沙坡头段不同编制结构的枝条阻沙栅栏防护效应风洞模拟     

康文岩  王立  屈建军  卢琴春 《中国沙漠》2020,40(2):94-99

对包兰铁路沙坡头段枝条阻沙栅栏流场结构进行风洞模拟试验。结果表明:气流在经过横向、竖向阻沙栅栏时均出现了明显的流速分区。气流在经过阻沙栅栏时速度会减弱,但是竖向枝条阻沙栅栏的综合阻风防沙效果明显优于横向阻沙栅栏,同时竖向枝条阻沙栅栏制作上具有工序简单、原材料广泛及不受枝条长度限制的特性,因此,在防沙治沙应用中,竖向枝条阻沙栅栏更适合推广。虽然孔隙度是阻沙栅栏设计的重要技术参数,但栅栏结构对风沙流场产生直接影响,是决定着其对风沙活动防护效应高低的关键因子。  相似文献   

基于广义回归神经网络的全球表层海水1°×1°二氧化碳分压数据推演     

钟国荣  李学刚  曲宝晓  王彦俊  袁华茂  宋金明 《海洋学报》2020,42(10):70-79

表层海水二氧化碳分压是评估海洋碳源汇强度的关键参数，但其实测数据较少、时空分布极不均匀，导致二氧化碳交换通量的估算有很大的不确定性，海洋源汇特征就不能确切获取。为了解决这个难题，在收集的表层大洋二氧化碳地图(Surface Ocean CO₂ Atlas，SOCAT)实测数据集基础上，运用广义回归神经网络建立二氧化碳分压与经纬度、时间、温度、盐度和叶绿素浓度间的非线性关系，构建了1998?2018年间全球1°×1°经纬度的表层海水二氧化碳分压格点数据，其标准误差为16.93 μatm，平均相对误差为2.97%，优于现有研究中的前反馈神经网络、自组织映射神经网络和机器学习算法等方法。根据构建的数据所绘制的全球表层海水二氧化碳分压的分布与现有研究有较好的一致性。  相似文献