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准时间可预报复发行为与断裂带分段发震概率估计 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
反不确定性引入“时间可预报模式”，可将一次地震之后的平静时间表示成与这次地震位错量在小呈正相关的随机变量。称这种带有不确定性的地震原地复发行为为“准时间可预报行为”。对于历史地震资料，准时间可预报复发行为可由地震后平静时间的对数与地震烈度的回归方程。文中给出了估计一条枯断裂带不同段落以上一次地震烈度值为背景的平均复发时间间隔的方法，以及可用 于对未来地震潜势进行不确定评价的实时概率模型，并以鲜水河 相似文献
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为了考察中国大陆活动断裂带段破裂地震的复发行为,根据多轮回复发的地震资料定量分析了19个断裂段的地震历史．结果表明:这些断裂段的地震原地复发主要表现出:① 良好的准周期行为(约占9/19);② 时间可预报行为(约占12/19)．第1种行为的复发间隔内在不确定性为平均间隔的0.15～0.40,不同轮回事件的震级在平均震级0.5级之内变化．第2种行为的复发间隔内在不确定性大多为平均间隔的0.19～0.40,相继轮回事件的最大震级差可达1.7级．另外,少数情况下第1种行为可与第2种或者滑动可预报行为共存． 相似文献
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Average slip rate,earthquake rupturing segmentation and recurrence behavior on the Litang fault zone,western Sichuan Province,China 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
XU Xiwei WEN Xueze YU Guihua ZHENG Rongzhang LUO Haiyuan & ZHENG Bin . Institute of Geology China Earthquake Administration Beijing China . Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province Chengdu China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(8):1183-1196
The Litang fault zone (LFZ) is an important active fault within the northwestern Sichuan sub-block. To-gether with the Garzê-Yushu, Xianshuihe, and An-ninghe fault zones on its northern, eastern and south-eastern sides, the LFZ constitutes the lateral extrusion tectonic system in the southeastern part of the Qing-hai-Tibetan Plateau[1,2] (Fig. 1). According to instru-mental records, historical recordings and field investi- gation, an earthquake (Ms7.3) occurred on its middle to south se… 相似文献
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耿达短水准AB测线观测资料2006—2007年出现了累计4.59mm的张性变化,但同时段该场地A点附近进行建筑施工,这引起了该变化是否属于汶川地震前兆异常的争论.通过对耿达短水准场地现场地质和观测环境考察,在综合分析观测资料和场地内建筑施工有关信息的基础上,使用岩土力学分析程序计算施工对A点点位的影响的数值解.结果显示,建筑施工导致了约3.6mm的竖向沉降,这与同时段短水准观测的A点点位的变化幅度相似,发展趋势一致.认为耿达短水准AB测线测值从2006—2007年出现的变化是由于A点附近建筑施工影响所致.本文还对耿达短水准观测的2008年5月12日汶川MS8.0地震同震变化进行了分析,认为A点位于很厚的洪积扇上,当汶川地震发生时,在强烈地震动的作用下,洪积层内部空隙结构产生崩溃性破坏,从而形成地表的下沉,其沉降幅度与类似烈度条件下黄土场地的沉降幅度相当. 相似文献
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This paper reviews the history and progress of research on active tectonics in China and overseas. By giving a brief introduction on the history of active tectonic research in China and other countries, the paper sums up the process and development of quantitative investigation of active tectonics since the 1980s. The focus is on the main efforts and progress made in China on certain aspects of research, such as basic surveys and applied investigation of active tectonics, the study of theories related to regional active tectonics and their kinematics and geodynamics, surveys on coupling relations between deep and shallow structures, active fault surveys and prospecting and seismic hazard assessment in urban areas, as well as the efforts made using Quaternary geochronology. Furthermore, the paper looks back on Chinese quantitative investigation of active tectonics in China and sums up cognitions derived from studies on the determination of several basic and measurable parameters of active tectonics. These parameters include the length of fault and fault segmentation, coseismic slip and cumulative slip, fault slip rate, the sequence of paleoearthquake events and the time elapsed since the most recent event. At the same time, efforts and progress made in China on assessing the long-term seismic potential for active faults and evaluating the risk from potential active fault movement have been reviewed by summarizing research on developing theories, models, methods and the application of time-dependent seismic potential to prohabilistic assessment, magnitude estimation for potential earthquakes on active faults, and the forecast of potential risk caused by active fault movement. Finally, in consideration of the realities and problems in the research of active tectonics in China, the authors put forward several suggestions for issues worthy of more attention for further investigation in the future. 相似文献
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本文通过历史地震及现今地震活动性的分析、活断层分段理论及地震空区理论的应用、地震平均复发间隔及复发条件概率的估算以及多学科专家综合评估方法的引入，对川西鲜水河－安宁河－则木河断裂和滇东小江断裂带（中－北段）上15个不同段落的地震潜势进行了深入的研究。进一步修正并重新圈绘出位于鲜水河－安宁河－则木河断裂带上的四川省地震重点监视防御区，其范围：北起道孚县的葛卡或者松林口一带，南至西昌市，沿鲜水河－安宁河－则木河主干断裂带展布，全长约350千米。按对未来地震震级估计的不同，该区可分成3段。第1段位于葛卡或松林口至康定之间，震级估计为7±1／4级；第2段位于康定与石棉之间，估计的震级是61／2±1／4；第3段位于石棉至西昌之间，震级估计为7－71／2。此外，研究结果还显示了小江断裂带上的新塘湾和寻甸一嵩明两个段落未来15年内强震发生的概率相对较高。 相似文献
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四川、滇江地区２０多种曾在的Ｍ≥６级地震前出现过异常的前兆项目的１００多个数据，初步建立起三期异常持续时间Ｔ＿ｐ的概率分布模型。以此为基础，应用宇津等人发展的综合概率方法对１９８９年巴塘６．７级地震和１９８９年小金６．６级地震作了回顾性预报检验。结果表明这种以各学科观测异常资料为基础的综合概率方法，可能是一种对强震进行异常势态跟踪和预报的较好途径。 相似文献
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Eleftheria?PapadimitriouEmail author Xueze?Wen Vassilios?Karakostas Xueshen?Jin 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(8):1683-1707
Western Sichuan is among the most seismically active regions in southwestern China and is characterized by frequent strong (M 6.5) earthquakes, mainly along the Xianshuihe fault zone. Historical and instrumental seismicity show a temporal pattern of active periods separated by inactive ones, while in space a remarkable epicenter migration has been observed. During the last active period starting in 1893, the sinistral strike–slip Xianshuihe fault of 350 km total length, was entirely broken with the epicenters of successive strong earthquakes migrating along its strike. This pattern is investigated by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (CFF) since 1893 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 110 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic halfspace, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong (M 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We evaluate whether these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. It was found that all strong earthquakes, and moreover, the majority of smaller events for which reliable fault plane solutions are available, have occurred on stress–enhanced fault segments providing a convincing case in which Coulomb stress modeling gives insight into the temporal and spatial manifestation of seismic activity. We extend the stress calculations to the year 2025 and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying the fault segments that are possible sites of future strong earthquakes. 相似文献
10.
福州市活断层探测与地震危险性评价 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
大量震例研究表明，活动断层产生的直下型地震对城市的破坏非常严重，应用先进有效的地质与地球物理探测技术，准确地探明城市之下及附近活动断层分布，确定直下型地震的震源和危害性是我国城市减灾工作面临的一个非常急迫的实际问题。《福州市活断层探测与地震危险性评价》项目作为中国地震局全国城市活动断层探测的试点与示范项目于2001年初开始实施，2004年8月通过中国地震局的验收。项目围绕解决城市范围内的断裂定位、定年、定性、深部背景、地震危险性和危害性及防震减灾对策等一系列科学问题，通过“初查与目标区主要活断层鉴定”、“深部地震构造环境探测”、“地震活断层鉴定与危险性评价”、“地震活断层的详细探测”、“地震活断层危害性评价”和“活断层地理信息系统建设”等阶段的探测和评价工作，同时在福州市城、郊区全面开展壤中气汞、土壤汞、气氡、地质雷达、多道直流电法、瞬变电磁法、浅层地震折射法、浅层地震反射法、勘探震源效果对比、用于建立福州盆地埋藏第四系(标准)剖面的钻探等多种手段的试验探测，总结各种试验探测的技术指标和实践经验，在活断层的综合试验探测、定位定年、地震危险性和危害性评价等方面取得了下列成果与结论：(1)福州市活断层综合试验探测成果表明，在充分收集、整理与分析相关地质、地球物理、钻孔等资料的基础上，以地球化学探测为先导“侦察机”，确定了活断层的可能位置；以浅层地震勘探为主要探测方法，辅以电磁勘探作为补充，并利用钻探建立的第四系(标准)剖面或地层层序及测井获得的各种地球物理参数进行必要的校正和验证，结合裸露地表断层或埋深较浅断层的槽探及古地震调查或隐伏断层两侧钻孔岩芯岩性、层序、绝对年龄或孢粉等相对年龄的测定与对比等，是进行城市活断层探测(定位)与地震危险性、危害性评价(定年、定性)的最佳组合方法。(2)福州盆地位于具有发生中等强度地震的区域地震构造环境中，“台湾动力触角”对其影响相对较弱。(3)福州盆地主要断裂的活动性较弱，经鉴定的6条目标断裂都不是全新世断裂。其中，八一水库-尚干断裂和闽侯-南屿断裂至少为晚更新世中期以来的不活动断裂，其它为晚更新世以来不活动断裂。(4)福州盆地深部不存在发生直下型强烈破坏性地震的构造环境，其邻近的长乐-诏安断裂带是未来可能会发生对福州市有影响的地震震源区。(5)福州盆地主要断裂存在发生中等-中强地震的危险性，但发震概率较小。(6)福州盆地地震危害性较弱，地面发生地震地表破裂带的可能性不大。(7)开发建立了全国第一个活断层地理信息系统，具备信息查询显示、数据管理、数据的分析处理和咨询服务等功能。 相似文献