Verification and Assessment of Real-time Forecasts of Two Extreme Heavy Rain Events in Zhengzhou by Operational NWP Models     

钟水新  庄妍  胡胜  陈子通  丁伟钰  冯业荣  邓涛  刘显通  张艳霞  徐道生  戴光丰  蒙伟光 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2021,27(4):406-417

In the present study, the performances of the NWP models on two heavy rainfalls on 20 July and 22 August 2021 over Henan Province were investigated. The impacts of the water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall were further discussed. The results showed that the regional model system in the Guangzhou Meteorological Service generally showed high scores on the extreme rainfall over Henan. The maximum 24h accumulative rainfall by the 24h forecasts by the CMA-GD reached 556 mm over Henan Province. The 24-h and 48-h Threat Score (TS) of heavy rainfall reached 0.56 and 0.64. The comparisons of the Fraction Skill Score (FSS) verifications of the heavy rainfall by CMA-GD and CMA-TRAMS at the radium of 40km reached 0.96 and 0.87. The water vapor transport to the extreme rainfall showed that the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) of the whole layer before the occurrence of the heavy rainfall exhibited a double-eyes distribution in case 7 · 20. The north eye over Henan reached the same magnitude of IVT as the typhoon eye (Cempaka) over south China. The IVT over the lower troposphere (<500 hPa) showed an overwhelming magnitude than the upper level, especially in the planetary boundary layer (<700 hPa). More practical technical needs to be developed to improve its performances on the forecasting of extreme rainfall, as well as more experiments need to be conducted to examine the effects of the specific terrain and physical schemes on the extreme rainfall.  相似文献   

铁路路基粗粒土填料临界动应力试验研究     

王康宇  庄妍  耿雪玉 《岩土力学》2020,41(6):1865-1873

粗粒土填料被广泛应用于铁路基床填料中，直接承受轨道结构传递的列车动循环荷载的长期作用，研究其在列车动荷载作用下的动力行为特征及塑性变形特性可为路基状态评估、沉降控制提供思路。采用GDS动三轴试验系统对铁路基床表层的粗粒土填料动力响应开展研究，通过引入塑性应变率和安定理论，将不同频率、围压、循环动应力比等条件下路基填料的轴向塑性应变的发展规律划分为塑性安定、塑性蠕变和增量塑性破坏3种类型，并确定了塑性安定和塑性蠕变状态的临界动应力水平。研究表明：粗粒土填料的临界循环应力比随着围压的增大而增大，随着荷载频率的增加而减小。通过对试验结果的拟合分析，提出了以围压为变量的临界动应力经验公式，为合理评估列车荷载作用下路基任意深度的动力稳定提供了理论依据。  相似文献   

高铁荷载下桩承式路基动力响应及土拱效应研究     

庄妍  李劭邦  崔晓艳  董晓强  王康宇 《岩土力学》2020,41(9):3119-3130

土拱效应的作用机制是桩承式路堤荷载传递的关键性技术问题，然而高铁荷载作用下桩承式路堤中土拱效应的研究尚不充分。基于高铁设计规范的相关内容，建立了高铁荷载作用下桩承式路堤三维有限元分析模型，并采用已有研究结论验证了数值模型的正确性。根据该数值分析模型，首先分析了高铁荷载作用下路基的动力响应，研究了高铁荷载作用下道床和路堤不同位置处的竖向位移随时间的变化规律，以及路基中速度与加速度沿深度的分布规律。研究发现：道床和路堤表面处的竖向位移随时间变化呈倒“M”型周期变化，而路堤底部处呈“V”型周期变化；速度与加速度在路基深度范围内衰减了80%。通过变化桩间距、路堤高度以及路堤材料参数，分析其对高铁荷载作用下路堤应力和沉降发展规律的影响，进而分析其对土拱效应的影响。研究结果表明：动载作用下土拱效应依然存在，但有所减弱，动载峰值作用下减弱程度最大，谷值情况下有所恢复；桩间距和路堤高度对高铁荷载作用下桩承式路堤中土拱效应的影响较为明显，而路堤填料内摩擦角和剪胀角的影响则相对较小。  相似文献   

在套管中激发环向传播的准SH波的有限元模拟及实验研究     

陈雪莲  庄妍  夏飞月  殷晓康  唐晓明 《地球物理学报》2022,65(4):1519-1527

  相似文献