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The role of sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the development and predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is examined using a large set of idealized numerical experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results indicate that the onset time of rapid intensification of TC gradually decreases, and the peak intensity of TC gradually increases, with the increased magnitude of SST. The predictability limits of the maximum 10 m wind speed (MWS) and minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) are ~72 and ~84 hours, respectively. Comparisons of the analyses of variance for different simulation time confirm that the MWS and MSLP have strong signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) from 0-72 hours and a marked decrease beyond 72 hours. For the horizontal and vertical structures of wind speed, noticeable decreases in the magnitude of SNR can be seen as the simulation time increases, similar to that of the SLP or perturbation pressure. These results indicate that the SST as an external forcing signal plays an important role in TC intensity for up to 72 hours, and it is significantly weakened if the simulation time exceeds the predictability limits of TC intensity. 相似文献
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扬子克拉通北缘神农架地区出露了大量中元古代碳酸盐岩地层,但已有的同位素年代学资料有限,故对神农架群矿石山组白云岩开展了全岩Pb-Pb等时线测年.研究结果表明,矿石山组白云岩206Pb/204Pb变化范围相对较大,为18.753~23.106,而207Pb/204Pb和208Pb/204Pb则变化范围相对较小,分别为15.606~16.046和37.793~38.599.八件白云岩样品206Pb/204Pb和207Pb/204Pb之间呈良好的线性关系,构成Pb-Pb等时线年龄为1632±75Ma(MSWD=8.7),代表了矿石山组地层主体沉积时代,与已有的年代学结果可对应,表明Pb-Pb同位素体系可对古老的碳酸盐岩地层进行较为精确地定年.结合前人对于神农架群的年代学资料,确定神农架群的沉积时限应为1600~1100Ma的中元古代. 相似文献
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根据1958-2008年华南48站降水资料、NOAA全球逐月海温格点资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用EOF分解、相关、合成等统计方法,分析了华南夏季降水的变化特征及其与冬季热带太平洋海温的关系。结果表明,华南夏季降水变化特征主要表现为,空间分布以全区一致型为主,其次是南北反相对称型和东西反相对称型,且这3种分布模态都表现出显著的年际和年代际特征。全区一致型降水异常与热带太平洋海温显著相关,二者的相关性也具有年代际变化特征,其对应的热带太平洋海温具有沿赤道太平洋呈“负-正-负”的纬向分布型,类似于中部型El Nino。全区降水偏多时期,西南季风偏强,西太平洋副热带高压偏强、脊点位置偏西,南亚高压偏强、脊点位置偏东,总体的环流形势有利于华南地区的水汽输送和上升运动;降水偏少时期,情况相反。 相似文献
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根据2006年12月7日在长山山脉以东的南海海域加密观测的1天4次高分辨率船载GPS探空数据和NCEP-CFSR格点再分析数据,完整分析了一次低空大气波导生成、维持、消失过程。结果表明:该次冬季低空大气波导过程是由南海偏北部暖锋过境引起的,波导强度达19 M单位,厚度达250 m。暖锋过后,南海风速增大,逆温层变厚,大气波导强度减弱,最后陷获层消失,成为正常大气环境。 相似文献
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This study compares the seasonal and interannual-to-decadal variability in the strength and position of the Kuroshio Extension front(KEF) using high-resolution satellite-derived sea surface temperature(SST) and sea surface height(SSH) data. Results show that the KEF strength has an obvious seasonal variation that is similar at different longitudes, with a stronger(weaker) KEF during the cold(warm) season. However, the seasonal variation in the KEF position is relatively weak and varies with longitude. In contrast, the low-frequency variation of the KEF position is more distinct than that of the KEF strength even though they are well correlated. On both seasonal and interannual-to-decadal time scales, the western part of the KEF(142°–144°E) has the greatest variability in strength, while the eastern part of the KEF(149°–155°E) has the greatest variability in position. In addition, the relationships between wind-forced Rossby waves and the low-frequency variability in the KEF strength and position are also discussed by using the statistical analysis methods and a wind-driven hindcast model. A positive(negative) North Pacific Oscillation(NPO)-like atmospheric forcing generates positive(negative) SSH anomalies over the central North Pacific. These oceanic signals then propagate westward as Rossby waves, reaching the KE region about three years later, favoring a strengthened(weakened) and northward(southward)-moving KEF. 相似文献
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