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We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.  相似文献   

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Traditional models of urban development are no longer adequate to describe current metropolitan transformations. These are now at the centre of a debate concerning management and administration. In Italy, delays in resolving problems of urban and metropolitan government, despite the legal framework provided by Law 142/90, have weighed heavily on the larger urban areas of the country: Rome, Naples, Milan, which have not been able to tackle the issue of metropolitan government. Recent legislation, while not providing a pre-defined institutional solution, allows separate administrative districts to collectively establish metropolitan institutions of `variable geometry'. The Milan urban area is not one city, but a system of mutually-dependent cities, linked to each other and the rest of the world by a transport network still requiring much investment. The vitality of its economic structure (especially its small firms) is held back by seriously inadequate infrastructure and low external economic efficiency. The provincial capital may boast `historic centrality' but the most interesting potential for development is to be found on the periphery and in the administrative districts immediately surrounding it, in the recovery of derelict industrial areas and dormitory towns established in the 1950s and 1960s, especially to the north. Recovery of derelict areas, green areas, and better transport links within the urban area and with the outside world are the key elements in the reorganization of `Greater Milan'. In this situation of rapid transformation the most appropriate political strategies involve negotiated planning. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
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A structural transect in the Lower Dolpo highlights that the deformation and metamorphism of the Tibetan Zone (TZ) increase toward the bottom of the sequence. The contact with the underlying HHC is marked by a metamorphic jump from amphibolite facies in the carbonatic rocks of the upper part of the HHC to greenschist facies marbles in the TZ. Moreover, the HHC and the TZ show different metamorphic histories. The contact zone shows a strain increase accompanied by asymmetric folds with a top-to-the-northeast vergence, connected to a down-to-the-northeast tectonic transport. The contact is interpreted as an extensional shear zone, connected to the South Tibetan Detachment System. To cite this article: R. Carosi et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 933–940.  相似文献   
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 We have determined the quenched cation ordering states of five orthopyroxene crystals collected from the marginal border group and the lower zone a and b of the Skaergaard intrusion, and modeled these data to retrieve their closure temperatures (T c) of Fe–Mg ordering and cooling rates. According to existing thermal models for the Skaergaard pluton, conductive cooling dominated the high and low temperature regimes, which were separated by an intermediate temperature regime in which the cooling was controlled primarily by convective fluid circulation. The cooling rates retrieved from the quenched cation ordering states of the orthopyroxene crystals strictly apply to temperatures around the closure temperatures of the ordering states, ∼340–400° C, which fall at the transition from convective to the lower temperature conductive cooling. The cooling rates obtained from the cation ordering states of orthopyroxene vary from ∼1 to 270 K/ka. These results agree well with a thermal model calculated using an assumed average permeability of 10-12 cm2 for the pluton, but not completely with a model calculated on the basis of an average permeability of 10-13 cm2, although both values produced shifts of δ18O that are comparable to those observed in the pluton. Received: 27 February 1995/Accepted: 20 July 1995  相似文献   
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The resolution of whole Earth seismic tomographic models   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
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A multi‐method approach (palaeothermal and thermochronological analyses; thermal modelling) is applied to reconstruct the exhumation history of the Altotiberina Fault (ATF), a representative example of crustal‐scale active low‐angle normal faulting in the Northern Apennines (Italy). Thermal maturity and thermochronological data yield similar burial histories but different exhumation patterns for the sedimentary successions in the hangingwall and the footwall of the ATF. Since 3.8 Ma, the ATF footwall has exhumed at rates of 0.90 mm a?1. Exhumation led to bending and deactivation of the ATF uppermost portion as a result of tectonic unloading and isostatic adjustment, followed by migration of extension and the development of a set of domino‐like, east‐dipping normal faults, rooting on the buried portion of the ATF. ATF activity and isostatic rebound exhumed Triassic rock units from depths of about 4 km. We suggest that isostatic instability is accommodated at shallow crustal levels, in a similar way to what is observed on larger structures at mid‐low crustal levels.  相似文献   
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Ressi is a small (2.4 ha) forested catchment located in the Italian pre-Alps. The site became an experimental catchment to investigate the water fluxes in the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum and the impact of vegetation on runoff generation in 2012. The elevation of the catchment ranges from 598 to 721 m a.s.l. and the climate is humid temperate. The bedrock consists of rhyolites and dacites; the soil is a Cambisol. The catchment is covered by a dense forest, dominated by beech, chestnut, maple, and hazel trees. The field set up includes measurements of the rainfall in an open area, streamflow at the outlet, soil moisture at various depths and locations, and depth to water table in six piezometers at a 5- or 10-min interval. Samples of precipitation, stream water, shallow groundwater and soil water are collected monthly for tracer analysis (stable isotopes (2H and 18O), electrical conductivity and major ions), and during selected rainfall–runoff events to determine the contribution of the various sources to runoff. Since 2017, soil and plant water samples have been collected to determine the sources of tree transpiration. Data collected in the period 2012–2016 are publicly available. Data collection is ongoing, and the data set is expected to be updated on an annual basis to include the most recent measurements.  相似文献   
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