Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy     

Diego Silva Herran  Shinichiro Fujimori  Mikiko Kainuma 《Climate Policy》2019,19(9):1117-1131

Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect.

Key policy insights

• For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.

• The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.

• Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.

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Study on the selection of unsaturated flow model for the different types of soil and soft rock   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Sajeewani Rajika Amarasinghe  Kunio Watanabe  Koji Ishiyama 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,64(7):1795-1805

Precise estimation of unsaturated hydraulic properties of porous media is indispensable in various study areas, such as analyzing the moisture flow, the drying process occurring from the surface, and the pollutant migration beneath the ground surface. Although many empirical/theoretical models describing the unsaturated hydraulic properties have been proposed by several previous researchers, the best model for the different types of soil/rock may not be identical. Thus, the model selection process and the estimation technique of the parameters included in the models should be developed. In the present study, the inverse technique based on the transient evaporation change was investigated to select the model and estimate the model parameters. The experimental work was based on a relatively low permeable soft rock and a relatively high permeable sandy soil (Toyoura standard sand). Experimental equipment was developed to precisely measure the evaporation rate for the high permeable sandy soil. The Genetic Algorithm (GA) was adopted in the inverse technique as an optimization tool. In order to simplify the problem, only the drying process from the saturated condition was considered. It was established that the information concerning the transient evaporation change could be used for the model selection and parameter estimation. Further, the saturation distribution could be used for the selection of the models. The present study provides important information for the development of the model selection process.  相似文献   

Physical properties and isotopic characteristics of landfast sea ice around the North Water (NOW) Polynya region     

Toshiyuki Kawamura  Kunio Shirasawa  Kunio Kobinata 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):173-182

Abstract

An ice core sampling program was conducted during the North Water (NOW) Polynya Project 1998 Experiment in northern Baffin Bay during April‐May 1998. The physical properties of snow and sea ice as well as the microstructure and stable isotopic composition of first‐year landfast sea ice near the polynya were investigated. The thickness of sea ice at the sampling sites ranged between 147 and 194 cm with thinner snow cover during the period between mid‐April and late May. The ice was characterized as typical first‐year landfast sea ice, being composed of a thin granular ice layer at the top and an underlying columnar ice layer towards the bottom of the ice. The samples obtained at a site closer to the ice edge of the polynya contained a thin granular ice layer originating from frazil ice near the ice bottom. Formation of frazil ice was considered to be caused by turbulent processes induced by winds, waves and currents forced from the polynya and also mixing with water masses produced at the polynya.  相似文献   

Under‐ice salinity and stable isotope distribution of Saroma‐ko Lagoon,Hokkaido, northern Japan     

Maki Morimoto  Kyoko Kawanobe  Osamu Abe  Takayoshi Kawai  Toshiyuki Kawamura  Kunio Shirasawa 《水文研究》2010,24(7):904-916

In winter, lakes and lagoons at high altitudes or high latitudes have interesting hydrological cycles that differ from those in other seasons or in other regions, because water surfaces are covered with ice. Hydrological balances of lakes and lagoons are complex dynamic systems, and to elucidate them, isotopic tracers of water have been used as effective tools along with observations of precipitation, evaporation, inflows, and outflows. Here, to understand hydrological processes during freezing periods in the brackish Saroma‐ko Lagoon, Hokkaido, northern Japan, we examined horizontal and vertical distributions of salinity and isotope compositions of lagoon water and ice in 2005 and 2006. Horizontal and vertical gradients of salinity and isotope compositions were observed from the river mouth to the sea channel, and factors determining these distributions were considered. The mixing of freshwater and seawater and a freezing effect were presumed to be factors in relationships between salinity and isotopes and in relationships between surface waters and ice just above the water. A simple box model for water balance was constructed based on these putative factors to reproduce the distributions of salinity and isotope compositions of surface waters and ice. An evaluation of the model revealed that this hydrological system is controlled primarily by horizontal advection of the epilimnion, freshwater influx, and the ice growth rate. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Validity of sea surface temperature observed with the TRITON buoy under diurnal heating conditions     

Yoshimi Kawai  Hiroshi Kawamura  Sumio Tanba  Kentaro Ando  Kunio Yoneyama  Norio Nagahama 《Journal of Oceanography》2006,62(6):825-838

In order to investigate the validity of buoy-observed sea surface temperature (SST), we installed special instruments to measure near-surface ocean temperature on the TRITON buoy moored at 2.07°N, 138.06°E from 2 to 13 March 2004, in addition to a standard buoy sensor for the regular SST measurement at 1.5-m depth. Large diurnal SST variations were observed during this period, and the variations of the temperatures at about 0.3-m depth could be approximately simulated by a one-dimensional numerical model. However, there was a notable discrepancy between the buoy-observed 1.5-m-depth SST (SST_1.5m) and the corresponding model-simulated temperature only during the daytime when the diurnal rise was large. The evaluation of the heat balance in the sea surface layer showed that the diurnal rise of the SST_1.5m in these cases could not be accounted for by solar heating alone. We examined the depth of the SST_1.5m sensor and the near-surface temperature observed from a ship near the buoy, and came to the conclusion that the solar heating of the buoy hull and/or a disturbance in the temperature field around the buoy hull would contribute to the excessive diurnal rise of the SST_1.5m observed with the TRITON buoy. However, the temperature around the hull was not sufficiently homogenized, as suggested in a previous paper. For the diurnal rise of the SST_1.5m exceeding 0.5 K, the daytime buoy data became doubtful, through dynamics that remain to be clarified. A simple formula is proposed to correct the unexpected diurnal amplitude of the buoy SST_1.5m.  相似文献   

Estimating migration rates from two tag-release/one recovery experiments   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Shirakihara  Kunio; Kitada  Shuichi 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2004,61(5):821-828

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Erroneous evaluation of electron and ion temperatures from a contaminated retarding potential trap     

Oyama Koh-Ichiro  Hirao Kunio 《Planetary and Space Science》1975,23(9):1309-1312

Contaminated electrode effects of a retarding potential trap on the temperature measurement are investigated in laboratory plasma. It is shown that poorly conductive layers on the electrode surface modify the v-i curves. This contamination effect of RPT electrode can be overcome either by increasing the sweep-rate of the grid potential or by the use of a large effective sheath resistance.  相似文献   

Oceanic Euxinia Development during the Changhsingian (Late Permian) and the Olenekian (Early Triassic): Evidence from Sulfur Isotopes     

KAIHO Kunio  TONG Jinnan  Paul GORJAN  CHEN Zhongqiang 《《地质学报》英文版》2013,87(Z1):904-904

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Spinifex-like textured metaperidotites from the Higo Metamorphic Rocks,Japan, a possible high-pressure dehydration product of antigorite serpentinite     

Tadao Nishiyama  Hibiki Eguchi  Dai Shiosaki  Akira Yoshiasa  Nobutatsu Mochizuki  Yasushi Mori  Kazumasa Sugiyama  Hiroshi Arima  Kunio Yubuta 《Island Arc》2021,30(1):e12382

Spinifex-like textured metaperidotites from the Higo Metamorphic Rocks (HMR), west-central Kyushu, Japan, may be formed by high-pressure dehydration of antigorite, and may indicate deep subduction of serpentinite reaching a pressure–temperature condition of 1.6 GPa and 740–750 °C. Three rock types have been identified based on mineral assemblage and rock texture: Type I (L) consisting of medium-grained (1–5 cm long) olivine + enstatite + chromite ±tremolite with secondary talc and anthophyllite that occurs in low-grade metamorphic rocks of the biotite zone, Type I (H) of coarse-grained (up to 10 cm long) olivine + enstatite (with clinoenstatite lamella) + chromite ±tremolite with secondary talc that occurs in high-grade metamorphic rocks of the garnet-cordierite zone, and Type II composed of Al-spinel + chlorite + olivine + apatite + ilmenite with minor sodic gedrite in the garnet-cordierite zone together with Type I (H). Olivines in all rock types are mostly serpentinized during exhumation. The chromite-olivine thermometer gives 560–690 °C for Type I (L) rocks, and the spinel-olivine thermometer gives 610–740 °C for Type II rocks. The peak metamorphic pressure will be higher than 1.6 GPa based on the location of the experimentally determined invariant point (P = 1.6 GPa and T = 670 °C) of antigorite + forsterite + enstatite + talc + H₂O. This estimate is consistent with the occurrence of chlorite in Type II rocks, which is stable up to 890 °C at 2.0 GPa. The spinifex-like textured metaperidotites occur as small bodies in the low P/T type gneisses, implying tectonic juxtaposition of them probably during exhumation of the HMR. Recent findings of medium pressure (0.9–1.2 GPa) granulites and gneisses from the HMR may indicate that the HMR has a deep root into the wedge mantle from which the spinifex-like textured metaperidotites have derived.  相似文献   

Microseismicity Induced by Heavy Rainfall Around Flooded Vertical Ore Veins     

H. Ogasawara  K. Fujimori  N. Koizumi  N. Hirano  S. Fujiwara  S. Otsuka  S. Nakao  K. Nishigami  K. Taniguchi  Y. Iio  R. Nishida  K. Oike  Y. Tanaka 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2002,159(1-3):91-109

—?Microseismicity (M?M?M?M??6 were also monitored at a crustal movement monitoring station located several hundred meters from the veins. It was found that the opening of the vertical ore veins primary led to significant strain and tilt, but not to seismicity, because the delay and the longer duration of the seismicity were significant. Most seismic events involve thrusting mechanisms that are consistent with the present stress state of E-W-oriented tectonic compression, but are not consistent with the opening of the deepest ore vein. Interstingly, all the events within a few months of the heavy rainfall occurred near the faults that offset the deepest ore veins, wheareas all those events located away from the deepest ore veins occurred many months after the heavy rainfall. Consequently, the delayed diffusion of water appears to have played a dominant role in reducing rock strength, which led to seismicity in the Ikuno mine.  相似文献