Scenarios on future land changes in the West African Sahel     

Eric F. Lambin  Sarah Ann Lise D’haen  Ole Mertz  Jonas Østergaard Nielsen  Kjeld Rasmussen 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2014,114(1):76-83

In an attempt to anticipate possible futures of drylands of West Africa in the face of rapid socio-economic and environmental changes, we developed four scenarios based on recent survey data, the literature and our knowledge of the region. The four scenarios are inspired by those developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: (1) ‘downward spiral’ characterized by rapid climate change, expansion of agriculture and chaotic urban growth; (2) ‘integrated economy’ with integrated land management, food production for local markets and rural–urban exchanges; (3) ‘open doors’ characterized by large-scale out-migrations, land grabbing by foreign companies and development aid and (4) ‘climate change mitigation’ with an increase in biofuel crops, land management for carbon capture and development of off-farm activities. We conclude that the Sahel region is most likely moving away from being a highly climate-dependent region based on agriculture towards a more open and diversified economy. West African countries have to find a balance between the new opportunities and risks created by economic globalization.  相似文献   

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa     

Lise Byskov Herslund  Fatemeh Jalayer  Nathalie Jean-Baptiste  Gertrud Jørgensen  Sigrun Kabisch  Wilbard Kombe  Sarah Lindley  Patrik Karlsson Nyed  Stephan Pauleit  Andreas Printz  Trond Vedeld 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(2):149-172

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.  相似文献   

Socio-economic changes,social capital and implications for climate change in a changing rural Nepal     

Anja Byg  Lise Herslund 《GeoJournal》2016,81(2):169-184

We investigate the use of social capital in the form of social ties in the face of commercialization, urbanization and climate change. While discussions of social capital often focus on whether people possess certain social ties or not our study shows that it is also necessary to consider under what circumstances people can make use of their ties. The use of different kinds of ties varies with context and is not as clear cut as suggested in the literature. For example families closer to the city are in a better position to take advantage of new opportunities. Using a combination of ties people have engaged in high-input agriculture, business and paid employment. Diversification of livelihoods has made many people less sensitive to climate change, but this does not translate into decreased vulnerability for the community. Intensive agriculture and lower community cohesion seems unsustainable in the long run. Thus, decreased vulnerability at the household level may come at the price of increased vulnerability at higher levels and negative consequences for the wider social–ecological system. Evaluating vulnerability and the role of social ties depends on the unit and sector of analysis, and the temporal and spatial scale.  相似文献   

Monitoring gravel augmentation in a large regulated river and implications for process‐based restoration          下载免费PDF全文

Fanny Arnaud  Hervé Piégay  David Béal  Pierre Collery  Lise Vaudor  Anne‐Julia Rollet 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(13):2147-2166

The artificial gravel augmentation of river channels is increasingly being used to mitigate the adverse effects of river regulation and sediment starvation. A systematic framework for designing and assessing such gravel augmentations is still lacking, notably on large rivers. Monitoring is required to quantify the movement of augmented gravel, measure bedform changes, assess potential habitat enhancement, and reduce the uncertainty in sediment management. Here we present the results of an experiment conducted in the Rhine River (French and German border). In 2010, 23 000 m³ of sediments (approximately the mean annual bedload transport capacity) were supplied in a by‐passed reach downstream of the Kembs dam to test the feasibility of enhancing sediment transport and bedform changes. A 620‐m‐long and 12‐m‐wide gravel deposit was created 8 km downstream from the dam. Monitoring included topo‐bathymetric surveys, radio‐frequency particle tracking using passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, bed grain size measurement, and airborne imagery. Six surveys performed since 2009 have been described (before and after gravel augmentation, and after Q₂ and Q₁₅ floods). The key findings are that (i) the augmented gravel was partially dispersed by the first flood event of December 2010 (Q₁); (ii) PIT tags were found up to 3200 m downstream of the gravel augmentation site after four years, but the effects of gravel augmentation could not be clearly distinguished from the effects of floods and internal remobilization on more than 3500 m downstream; (iii) linear and log‐linear relationships linking bedload transport, particle mobility, and grain size were established; and (iv) combined bathymetry and PIT tag surveys were useful for evaluating potential environmental risks and the first morpho‐ecological responses. This confirmed the complementary nature of such techniques in the monitoring of gravel augmentation in large rivers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Air–Sea \mathrm{CO}_{2} Gas Transfer Velocity in a Shallow Estuary     

Eva Thorborg Mørk  Lise Lotte Sørensen  Bjarne Jensen  Mikael K. Sejr 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2014,151(1):119-138

The air–sea transfer velocity of $\mathrm{CO}_{2}\, (k_{\mathrm{CO}_{2}})$ was investigated in a shallow estuary in March to July 2012, using eddy-covariance measurements of $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ fluxes and measured air–sea $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ partial-pressure differences. A data evaluation method that eliminates data by nine rejection criteria in order to heighten parametrization certainty is proposed. We tested the data evaluation method by comparing two datasets: one derived using quality criteria related solely to the eddy-covariance method, and the other derived using quality criteria based on both eddy-covariance and cospectral peak methods. The best parametrization of transfer velocity normalized to a Schmidt number of 600 $(k_{600})$ was determined to be: $k_{600} = 0.3\,{U_{10}}^{2.5}$ where $U_{10}$ is the wind speed in m $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ at 10 m; $k_{600}$ is based on $\mathrm{CO}_{2}$ fluxes calculated by the eddy-covariance method and including the cospectral peak method criteria. At low wind speeds, the transfer velocity in the shallow water estuary was lower than in other coastal waters, possibly a symptom of low tidal amplitude leading to low intensity water turbulence. High transfer velocities were recorded above wind speeds of 5 m $\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ , believed to be caused by early-breaking waves and the large fetch (6.5 km) of the estuary. These findings indicate that turbulence in both air and water influences the transfer velocity.  相似文献   

Methods for Estimating Air–Sea Fluxes of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Using High-Frequency Measurements     

Maria Norman  Anna Rutgersson  Lise Lotte Sørensen  Erik Sahlée 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2012,144(3):379-400

The most direct method for flux estimation uses eddy covariance, which is also the most commonly used method for land-based measurements of surface fluxes. Moving platforms are frequently used to make measurements over the sea, in which case motion can disturb the measurements. An alternative method for flux estimation should be considered if the effects of platform motion cannot be properly corrected for. Three methods for estimating CO₂ fluxes are studied here: the eddy-covariance, the inertial-dissipation, and the cospectral-peak methods. High-frequency measurements made at the land-based Östergarnsholm marine station in the Baltic Sea and measurements made from a ship during the Galathea 3 expedition are used. The Kolmogorov constant for CO₂, used in the inertial-dissipation method, is estimated to be 0.68 and is determined using direct flux measurements made at the Östergarnsholm site. The cospectral-peak method, originally developed for neutral stratification, is modified to be applicable in all stratifications. With these modifications, the CO₂ fluxes estimated using the three methods agree well. Using data from the Östergarnsholm site, the mean absolute error between the eddy-covariance and inertial-dissipation methods is 0.25 μmol  m^?2 s^?1. The corresponding mean absolute error between the eddy-covariance and cospectral-peak methods is 0.26 μmol m^?2 s^?1, while between the inertial-dissipation and cospectral-peak methods it is 0.14 μmol m^?2 s^?1.  相似文献   

Sustainable urban drainage systems: examining the potential for green infrastructure-based stormwater management for Sub-Saharan cities     

Mguni  Patience  Herslund  Lise  Jensen  Marina Bergen 《Natural Hazards》2016,82(2):241-257

Green infrastructure (GI)-based approaches to urban drainage such as sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) could provide Sub-Saharan cities with an opportunity to address projected climate change impacts and existing deficits in their drainage infrastructure, even more so due to the synergies between an enhanced green infrastructure stock and sustainable urban development. The objective of this paper was to assess the theoretical value of using green infrastructure for stormwater management as an alternative and supplement to conventional pipe-based stormwater management systems. A SWOT analysis is performed to assess the potential that SUDS hold if adopted and implemented in Sub-Saharan cities. This analysis is based on a review of sustainable stormwater management as well as urban planning and governance literature. Results show that despite seemingly significant barriers to the adoption of SUDS in Sub-Saharan cities such as low prioritization on the urban agenda and lack of data among others, the concept may hold valuable potential for flood risk reduction, even more so due to its multi-functionality and synergies with urban agriculture, amenity and water supply. In the light of the existing threats and weaknesses, it is recommended that GI-based SUDS may be best approached initially as experiments at a local community scale.  相似文献   

ROBUST: The ROle of BUffering capacities in STabilising coastal lagoon ecosystems     

Rutger de Wit  Lucas J. Stal  Bente Aa. Lomstein  Rodney A. Herbert  Hans van Gemerden  Pierluigi Viaroli  Victor-Ugo Cecherelli  Francisco Rodríguez-Valera  Marco Bartoli  Gianmarco Giordani  Roberta Azzoni  Bart Schaub  David T. Welsh  Andrew Donnelly  Ana Cifuentes  Josefa Antn  Kai Finster  Lise B. Nielsen  Anne-Grethe Underlien Pedersen  Anne Turi Neubauer  Marina A. Colangelo  Sander K. Heijs 《Continental Shelf Research》2001,21(18-19)

“Buffer capacities” has been defined in ecology as a holistic concept (e.g., Integration of Ecosystem Theories: A Pattern, second ed. Kluwer, Dordrecht, 1997, 388pp), but we show that it can also be worked out in mechanistic studies. Our mechanistic approach highlights that “buffering capacities” can be depleted progressively, and, therefore, we make a distinction between current and potential “buffering capacities”. We have applied this concept to understand the limited “local stability” in seagrass ecosystems and their vulnerability towards structural changes into macro-algal dominated communities. We explored the following processes and studied how they confer buffering capacities to the seagrass ecosystem: (i) net autotrophy is persistent in Zostera noltii meadows where plant assimilation acts as a sink for nutrients, this contrasted with the Ulva system that shifted back and forth between net autotrophy and net heterotrophy; (ii) the Z. noltii ecosystem possesses a certain albeit rather limited capacity to modify the balance between nitrogen fixation and denitrification, i.e., it was found that in situ nitrogen fixation always exceeded denitrification; (iii) the nitrogen demand of organoheterotrophic bacteria in the sediment results in nitrogen retention of N in the sediment and hence a buffer against release of nitrogen compounds from sediments, (iv) habitat diversification in seagrass meadows provides shelter for meiofauna and hence buffering against adverse conditions, (v) sedimentary iron provides a buffer against noxious sulfide (note: bacterial sulfide production is enhanced in anoxic sediment niches by increased organic matter loading). On the other hand, in the coastal system we studied, sedimentary iron appears less important as a redox-coupled buffer system against phosphate loading. This is because most inorganic phosphate is bound to calcium rather than to iron. In addition, our studies have highlighted the importance of plant–microbe interactions in the seagrass meadows.  相似文献   

Impact of Climate on Tourist Demand   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

Wietze Lise  Richard S. J. Tol 《Climatic change》2002,55(4):429-449

Tourism, being volatile and situation-specific, is responsive to climate change. A cross-section analysis is conducted on destinations of OECD tourists and a factor and regression analysis on holiday activities of Dutch tourists, to find optimal temperatures at travel destination for different tourists and different tourist activities. Globally, OECD tourists prefer a temperature of 21 °C (average of the hottest month of the year) at theirchoice of holiday destination. This indicates that, under a scenario of gradual warming, tourists would spend their holidays in different places than they currently do. The factor and regression analysis suggests that preferences for climates at tourist destinations differ among age and income groups.  相似文献   

Rural diversification in the Baltic countryside: a local perspective     

Lise Herslund 《GeoJournal》2007,70(1):47-59

Today “rural diversification” is high on the agenda in rural development. This article analyses rural diversification under conditions of post-socialist economic transition using case areas in Latvia and Estonia. The study shows that transition from centrally planned economy to market economy has had an enormous impact in the rural areas. Agricultural production and employment has decreased dramatically and rural unemployment is high. The conditions for rural diversification the first years after independence depended a lot on the local presence of non-farm activities before the split up of collective farming, in both production facilities but also in the skills and relations people had. Since independence, markets for traditional rural services and products have decreased. The extent to which local businesses find markets outside the local area and people have been able to integrate into the new labour market of service and construction jobs often in urban areas are essential for the diversification of the rural economy. Most rural inhabitants only have skills in large-scale agriculture and limited contacts to outside the local area which makes exploiting new opportunities difficult. The local capacity for withholding, developing and inducing new activities is weak. The challenge for rural development policy is to extend the possibilities of the rural inhabitants to exploit new opportunities.  相似文献