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Natural Hazards - After a major earthquake, one of the main tasks is to identify temporary shelters. In this study, we utilized probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis based on land use... 相似文献
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Smirnov V. B. Ommi S. Potanina M. G. Mikhailov V. O. Petrov A. G. Shapiro N. M. Ponomarev A. V. 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2019,55(5):701-718
Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—Based on the generalized frequency–magnitude relation for earthquakes, the failure cycle parameters are estimated from regional seismic... 相似文献
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Aftershock Decay Rates in the Iranian Plateau 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
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Aftershock hazard maps contain the essential information for search and rescue process, and re-occupation after a main-shock. Accordingly, the main purposes of this article are to study the aftershock decay parameters and to estimate the expected high-frequency ground motions (i.e., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)) for recent large earthquakes in the Iranian plateau. For this aim, the Ahar-Varzaghan doublet earthquake (August 11, 2012; M N =6.5, M N =6.3), and the Ilam (Murmuri) earthquake (August 18, 2014 ; M N =6.2) have been selected. The earthquake catalogue has been collected based on the Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5), 1363-1367, 1974) temporal and spatial windowing technique. The magnitude of completeness and the seismicity parameters (a,??b) and the modified Omori law parameters (P,??K,??C) have been determined for these two earthquakes in the 14, 30, and 60 days after the mainshocks. Also, the temporal changes of parameters (a,??b,??P,??K,??C) have been studied. The aftershock hazard maps for the probability of exceedance (33%) have been computed in the time periods of 14, 30, and 60 days after the Ahar-Varzaghan and Ilam (Murmuri) earthquakes. For calculating the expected PGA of aftershocks, the regional and global ground motion prediction equations have been utilized. Amplification factor based on the site classes has also been implied in the calculation of PGA. These aftershock hazard maps show an agreement between the PGAs of large aftershocks and the forecasted PGAs. Also, the significant role of b parameter in the Ilam (Murmuri) probabilistic aftershock hazard maps has been investigated. 相似文献
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The forecasting of large aftershocks is a preliminary and critical step in seismic hazard analysis and seismic risk management. From a statistical point of view, it relies entirely on the estimation of the properties of aftershock sequences using a set of laws with well-defined parameters. Since the frequentist and Bayesian approaches are common tools to assess these parameter values, we compare the two approaches for the Modified Omori Law and a selection of mainshock–aftershock sequences in the Iranian Plateau. There is a general agreement between the two methods, but the Bayesian appears to be more efficient as the number of recorded aftershocks decreases. Taking into account temporal variations of the b-value, the slope of the frequency-size distribution, the probability for the occurrence of strong aftershock, or larger main shock has been calculated in a finite time window using the parameters of the Modified Omori Law observed in the Iranian Plateau. 相似文献
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