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Danny Arroyo Daniel García Mario Ordaz Mauricio Alexander Mora Shri Krishna Singh 《Journal of Seismology》2010,14(4):769-785
We derive strong ground-motion relations for horizontal components of pseudo-acceleration response spectra from Mexican interplate
earthquakes at rock sites (NEHRP B class) in the forearc region. The functional form is obtained from the analytical solution
of a circular finite-source model. For the regression analysis we use a recently proposed multivariate Bayesian technique.
The resulting model has similar accuracy as those models derived from regional and worldwide subduction-zone databases. However,
there are significant differences in the estimations computed from our model and other models. First, our results reveal that
attenuation in Mexico tends to be stronger than that of worldwide relations, especially for large events. Second, our model
predicts ground motions for large earthquakes at close distances to the source that are considerably larger than the estimations
of global models. Lack of data in this range makes it difficult to identify the most appropriate model for this scenario.
Nevertheless, according to the available data at the city of Acapulco, our model seems to estimate seismic hazard more adequately
than the other models. These new relations may be useful in computing seismic hazard for the Mexican forearc region, where
no similar equations had been yet proposed. 相似文献
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Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Mabel C. Marulanda Martha L. Carreño Omar D. Cardona Mario G. Ordaz Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):59-84
The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard risk analyses. In this article, the process of probabilistic seismic risk analysis is described, explaining the main features of the CAPRA modules of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimation applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. In addition, according to the physical risk results and the information on the socioeconomic indicators of the city, this article presents the holistic evaluation of seismic risk, which is a valuable result to facilitate the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision making. 相似文献
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Bayesian Attenuation Regressions: an Application to Mexico City 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
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Attention is first focused on the probability distributions of the exceedance rates of given earthquake magnitudes when the generation process is idealized as Poisson. But data on significant disturbances are always scarce. Local-seismicity assessment is hence guided by information from tectonically similar areas, but ordinarily the guidance is intuitive. Bayesian statistics constitute the tool to do this rationally. Two more alternatives are presented and illustrated here. The approach is extended to a generating process that includes the Poisson as a special case. 相似文献
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S. K. Singh J. F. Pacheco M. Ordaz R. S. Dattatrayam G. Suresh P. R. Baidya 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1491-1510
In this paper, we report that the ratio of broadband energy (0.01?C2?Hz) to high-frequency energy (0.3?C2?Hz), E r, estimated from regional seismograms of India, might be a useful parameter in estimating tsunami potential of earthquakes in the Sumatra?CAndaman region. E r is expected to be sensitive to the depth as well as to the source characteristics of an earthquake. Since a shallow and slow earthquake has a greater tsunamigenic potential, E r may be a useful diagnostic parameter. We base our analysis on broadband seismograms of the great earthquakes of Sumatra?CAndaman (2004, M w?~?9.2) and Nias (2005, M w 8.6), 41 of their aftershocks, and the earthquakes of north Sumatra (2010, M w 7.8) and Nicobar (2010, M w 7.4) recorded at VISK, a station located on the east coast of India. In the analysis, we also included the two recent, great strike-slip earthquakes of north Sumatra (2012, M w 8.6, 8.2) recorded at VISK and three south Sumatra earthquakes (2007, M w 8.5; 2007, M w 7.9; 2010, M w 7.8) recorded at PALK, a station in Sri Lanka. We find that E r is a function of depth; shallower earthquakes have higher E r values than the deeper ones. Thus, E r may be indicative of tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake. As M w and E r increase so does the tsunami potential. In addition to the parameter E r, the radiated seismic energy, E s, may be estimated from the regional seismograms in India using empirical Green??s function technique. The technique yields reliable E s for the great Sumatra and Nias earthquakes. E r and E s computed from VISK data, along with M w and focal mechanism, may be useful in estimating tsunami potential along the east coast of India from earthquakes in the Sumatra?CAndaman region in less than ~20?min. 相似文献
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Cardona Omar-Dar&#;o Ordaz Mario Salgado-G&#;lvez Mario A. Barbat Alex H. Carre&#;o Martha L. 《Natural Hazards》2017,93(1):113-125
Among the activities developed under the framework of the Global Earthquake Model, the development of a global consequences database was included. This was defined with the objective of serving as public repository of damages and losses, occurred on different types of elements because of a selected list of earthquakes with epicentres at varying locations around the globe, but also to be used as a benchmark for the development of vulnerability models that capture specific characteristics of the building typologies in each country. The online earthquakes consequences’ database has information on 71 events where 16 of them occurred in the Latin America and the Caribbean Region. A complete and comprehensive review and data gathering process were developed for these selected earthquakes accounting for different aspects and dimensions that were considered of interest, besides the physical damage, such as casualties, socio-economic implications, damages and disruptions in critical facilities and infrastructures, together with the occurrence of secondary events triggered by the ground shaking such as landslides and tsunamis. When possible, the damage and casualties were geo-located using a standardized approach and included in the database. The contributions of the Latin America and Caribbean Region to the database were at the same time a challenge and an opportunity to collect, review, put together and standardize, up to a certain point, damage data of previous earthquakes additionally of being a step forward in the field of open data.
相似文献8.
A theoretically exact relation is presented between the Fourier amplitude spectrum and the elastic input‐energy spectrum. This energy spectrum is computed from the Fourier acceleration amplitude spectrum and the real part of the relative velocity transfer function of the single‐degree‐of‐freedom elastic oscillator. Some accelerometric records collected worldwide are used to prove the solution. It is shown that the relation presented in this work opens the door for a better understanding of the relationship between the input‐energy spectrum and other seismological variables, such as magnitude and focal distance. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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It is well known that seismic waves in the lake-bed zone of Mexico city are dramatically amplified, and that the soft clays in this region exhibit an unusually large elastic range. New field and laboratory data show that clays in certain areas within the Valley of Mexico have lower elastic thresholds and, hence, non-linear soil behaviour would be more likely to take place. In this paper, we analyse geotechnical and strong-motion data to model, using a one-dimensional (1-D) approach, the non-linear soil response at two sites in Mexico City during the September 19, 1985 (Ms = 8.1) Michoacán earthquake. Results suggest that, even for motions as large as those recorded during the 1985 Michoacán event, a linear viscoelastic behaviour must be assumed for the examined area, although, as far as it is presently known, the clays from this area show the greatest modulus reduction among the Mexico City clays. Thus, a linear 1-D propagation analysis continues to be a suitable engineering option in computing expected ground motions at soft sites for the Valley of Mexico. Caution, however, is warranted when selecting input motions, since, as shown in this paper, large differences can result depending on the choice of outcrop motions. 相似文献