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Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber Anastasia Svirejeva-Hopkins 《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):81-90
Abstract Since the World Climate Change Conference held in the autumn of 2003 in Moscow, Russian Federation, the fate of international climate policy architecture designed around the Kyoto Protocol hangs in the balance. After the withdrawal of the USA from the Kyoto Protocol, the condition of its ratification cannot be met without the Russian Federation. There has been a considerable uncertainty as to Russia's intentions regarding ratification of Kyoto. In this contribution, an attempt is made to identify the Russian motives and concerns, and explain their attitudes regarding the Kyoto Protocol. Pressures against and for ratification are discussed. Finally, a few comments are made about the future of the efforts to solve the global environmental problem of protecting the Earth's climate. 相似文献
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Modelling carbon dynamics from urban land conversion: fundamental model of city in relation to a local carbon cycle 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Background
The main task is to estimate the qualitative and quantitative contribution of urban territories and precisely of the process of urbanization to the Global Carbon Cycle (GCC). Note that, on the contrary to many investigations that have considered direct anthropogenic emission of CO2(urbanized territories produce ca. 96–98% of it), we are interested in more subtle, and up until the present time, weaker processes associated with the conversion of the surrounding natural ecosystems and landscapes into urban lands. Such conversion inevitably takes place when cities are sprawling and additional "natural" lands are becoming "urbanized". 相似文献5.
Geophysiology of mineral deposits - a model for a biological driving force of global changes through Earth history 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The upper mantle, crust, hydrosphere and atmosphere of Earth are kept in a geophysical, geochemical and thermodynamical state far from astrophysical and planetary equilibrium. The system oscillates around a quasi-stable centre following laws governing dissipative or dynamic systems. The energy and materials necessary for such global pseudo-equilibria are fed in, stored and released on a geological time-scale by (a) the energy and electron channelling processes of photosynthesis, respiration and fermentation, (b) biologically controlled accumulation of energy and matter into crustal reservoirs and much later (c) release of the latter from crust and upper mantle into surface-related geotectonical and geochemical cycles. Phototrophic and chemorganotrophic bacterial microorganisms of microbial mats, potential stromatolites or microbialites are capable of anoxygenic and oxygenic photosynthesis, of aerobic and anaerobic respiration and of organic and inorganic fermentation, i.e. disproportioning of energy-rich molecules. In this way large amounts of photosynthate are transformed on a global scale into hydrocarbons and sulphides (sulphate serving as electron acceptor for anaerobic respiration or fermentation). Inorganic reduced compounds produced by the same processes of photosynthesis followed by respiration and fermentation are stored as sulphides of iron, lead, zinc, silver, gold etc. All the aforementioned microbial processes can transfer energies and matter at a global scale. Thus disparities of the Earth's crust and mantle from the geochemical equilibrium may not be caused solely by internal temperature, radioactivity and gravity gradients, but increasingly by life processes. The biogenic formation of energy-rich compounds on a global scale delivers huge amounts of energy and electrons to the crust, which are recycled through geological time. The quantities of energy involved appear in themselves to be sufficient to provide the driving force for geotectonic processes. Thus, a model of geophysiological equilibration of geochemical cycles and geotectonics is proposed in which the biota play the role of energy and matter transmitters for geodynamic processes. Living matter controls and transfers more than 10% of the Earth's mass in this system with turnover times of up to 500 million years. The transfer speed of each individual atom according to the model must have gradually decreased since the Precambrian, while the amounts of energy and matter stored and cycled have in turn increased, as also witnessed by the increase in the thickness of the crust. Earth as a bioplanet has come of age. 相似文献
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Floods in the IPCC TAR Perspective 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Recent floods have become more abundant and more destructive than ever in many regions of the globe. Destructive floods observed in the 1990s all over the world have led to record-high material damage, with total losses exceeding one billion US dollars in each of two dozen events. The immediate question emerges as to the extent to which a sensible rise in flood hazard and vulnerability can be linked to climate variability and change. Links between climate change and floods have found extensive coverage in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since the material on floods is scattered over many places of two large volumes of the TAR, the present contribution - a guided tour to floods in the IPCC TAR – may help a reader notice the different angles from which floods were considered in the IPCC report. As the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere grows with temperature, the potential for intensive precipitation also increases. Higher and more intense precipitation has been already observed and this trend is expected to increase in the future, warmer world. This is a sufficient condition for flood hazard to increase. Yet there are also other, non-climatic, factors exacerbating flood hazard. According to the IPCC TAR, the analysis of extreme events in both observations and coupled models is underdeveloped. It is interesting that the perception of floods in different parts of the TAR is largely different. Large uncertainty is emphasized in the parts dealing with the science of climate change, but in the impact chapters, referring to sectors and regions, growth in flood risk is taken for granted. Floods have been identified on short lists of key regional concerns. 相似文献
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Gerhard Petschel-Held Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber Thomas Bruckner Ferenc L. Tóth Klaus Hasselmann 《Climatic change》1999,41(3-4):303-331
The tolerable windows (TW) approach is presented as a novel scheme for integrated assessment of climate change. The TW approach is based on the specification of a set of guardrails for climate evolution which refer to various climate-related attributes. These constraints, which define what we call tolerable windows, can be purely systemic in nature – like critical thresholds for the North Atlantic Deep Water formation – or of a normative type – like minimum standards for per-capita food production worldwide. Starting from this catalogue of knock-out criteria and using appropriate modeling techniques, those policy strategies which are compatible with all the constraints specified are sought to be identified. In addition to the discussion of the basic elements and the general theory of the TW approach, a modeling exercise is carried out, based on simple models and assumptions adopted from the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). The analysis shows that if the global mean temperature is restricted to 2°C beyond the preindustrial level, the cumulative emissions of CO2 are asymptotically limited to about 1550 Gt C. Yet the temporal distribution of these emissions is also determined by the climate and socio-economic constraints: using, for example, a maximal tolerable rate of temperature change of 0.2°C/dec and a smoothly varying emissions profile, we obtain the maximal cumulative emissions, amounting to 370 Gt C in 2050 and 585 Gt C in 2100. 相似文献
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Semiquantitative Assessment of Regional Climate Vulnerability: The North-Rhine Westphalia Study 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
J. p. Kropp A. Block F. Reusswig K. Zickfeld H. J. Schellnhuber 《Climatic change》2006,76(3-4):265-290
Climate change will bring about a sea change in environmental conditions worldwide during the 21th century. In particular, most of the extreme events and natural disaster regimes prevailing today will be transformed, thus exposing innumerable natural and socio-economic systems to novel risks that will be difficult to cope with. This crucial component of vulnerability to anthropogenic interference with the climate system is analyzed using powerful pattern recognition methods from statistical physics. The analysis is of intermediate character, with respect to spatial scale and complexity level respectively, and therefore allows a rapid regional assessment for any area of interest. The approach is based on a comprehensive inventory of all those ecological and socioeconomic assets in a region that are significantly sensitive to extreme weather (and climate) events. Advanced cluster analysis techniques are then employed to derive from the inventory a set of thematic maps that succinctly summarize – and visualize – the differential vulnerabilities characteristic of the area in question. This information can prepare decision makers and the general public for the climate change hazards to be faced and facilitates a precautionary climate change risk management. The semiquantitative methodology described and applied here can be easily extended to other aspects of climate change assessment. 相似文献
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The Stern Review has played an enormous role in making the world of business aware of the challenge of long-term climate change. In order to make real progress on the basis of this awareness, it is important to pay attention to the difference between human suffering and losses of gross domestic product (GDP). The Review has compared climate change to experiences of suffering like World War I. That war, however, hardly affected global GDP. The long-term damages to be expected from business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions include loss of the coastal cities of the world over the next millennia. This would be an act of unprecedented barbarism, regardless of whether it would slow down economic growth or perhaps even accelerate it. Business leaders worried about climate change need to pay attention to the tensions between ethical and economic concerns. Otherwise, a credibility crisis threatens global climate policy. An important step to establish the credibility needed for effective climate policy will be to gradually move towards a regime where emission permits are auctioned, not handed out as hidden subsidies. The revenues generated by permit auctions should be used to establish a global system of regional climate funds. 相似文献
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