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Filippo Ubertini Nicola Cavalagli Alban Kita Gabriele Comanducci 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(2):775-801
The response of the San Pietro monumental bell-tower located in Perugia, Italy, to the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence is investigated, taking advantage of the availability of field data recorded by a vibration-based SHM system installed in December 2014 to detect earthquake-induced damages. The tower is located about 85 km in the NW direction from the epicenter of the first major shock of the sequence, the Accumoli Mw6.0 earthquake of August 24th, resulting in a small local PGA of about 30 cm/s2, whereby near-field PGA was measured as 915.97 cm/s2 (E–W component) and 445.59 cm/s2 (N–S component). Similar PGA values also characterized the two other major shocks of the sequence (Ussita Mw5.9 and Norcia Mw6.5 earthquakes of October 26th and 30th, respectively). Despite the relatively low intensity of such earthquakes in Perugia, the analysis of long-term monitoring data clearly highlights that small permanent changes in the structural behavior of the bell-tower have occurred after the earthquakes, with decreases in all identified natural frequencies. Such natural frequency decays are fully consistent with what predicted by non-linear finite element simulations and, in particular, with the development of microcracks at the base of the columns of the belfry. Microcracks in these regions, and in the rest of tower, are however hardly distinguishable from pre-existing ones and from the physiological cracking of a masonry structure, what validates the effectiveness of the SHM system in detecting earthquake-induced damage at a stage where this is not yet detectable by visual inspections. 相似文献
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Bastien Girod Detlef P. van Vuuren Maria Grahn Alban Kitous Son H Kim Page Kyle 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):595-608
Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO2 emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquid fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems. 相似文献
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David McCollum Nico Bauer Katherine Calvin Alban Kitous Keywan Riahi 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):413-426
Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system. In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment model inter-comparison exercise. The diverse nature of these models highlights large uncertainties in the likely development of fossil resource (coal, oil, and natural gas) consumption, trade, and prices over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. We explore and explain some of the differences across scenarios and models and compare the scenario results with fossil resource estimates from the literature. A robust finding across the suite of IAMs is that the cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are, in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions this century. Our analysis also shows that climate mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon, and can help to alleviate near-term energy security concerns via the reductions in oil imports and increases in energy system diversity they will help to motivate. Aggressive efforts to promote energy efficiency are, on their own, not likely to lead to markedly greater energy independence, however, contrary to the stated objectives of certain industrialized countries. 相似文献
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In this article the effect of redistribution of rainfall by banana on local water fluxes and the possible impact of these fluxes on surface runoff has been studied. First the water redistribution by a banana canopy at three development stages (vegetative, flowering, and bunch stage) was measured. The results showed a considerable stemflow, proportional to the leaf area index (LAI), which represented 18 to 26% of the incident rainfall volume according to the age of the crop. Consequently, the rainfall rate was 28‐fold higher at the plant collar for a fully developed banana canopy. For the throughfall, on average, the higher the LAI, the lower the mean throughfall. In addition, the spatial distribution of the throughfall varied according to the distance from the pseudostem. Notably, for the earlier stages, the area between the pseudostem and 0·5 m from it received weak throughfall. Secondly, simulations were carried out with a simple two‐compartment model simulating the total surface runoff volume. The simulations showed stemflow combined with the agronomical practice of furrowing has an effect on runoff compared to bare soil. A relative increase in surface runoff volume of three‐fold was encountered on a plot with a fully developed banana and a infiltration rate of 60 mm h?1. However, the absolute increase was only a few percentage of the incident rainfall volume, although it represented large water volumes given the tropical rains. These features must be taken into account for hydrological management of such systems. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Although environmental factors such as grain size and organic carbon content may influence the distribution of microbes in marine sediments, there has been little experimental study of the topic to date. To investigate how those sediment variables affect microbial colonisation under in situ conditions, deep‐sea sediments and artificial sediments (glass beads, sands) were incubated in the Arctic deep sea at 2500 m water depth with or without chitin, one of the most important carbon polymers in marine environments. Microbial abundance, biomass, chitobiase activity and changes in community structure were monitored after 7 days and 1 year. In control sediments without chitin addition, no significant changes in microbial abundance, biomass and activity were observed after 1 year. In the presence of chitin, however, considerable increases in these parameters were recorded in all three sediment types tested. Regardless of chitin addition, natural deep‐sea sediments were always associated with higher values of microbial abundance, biomass and activity compared with artificial sediments. Sediment type was always found to be the most significant factor explaining variation in enzymatic activity and bacterial community structure as compared to the effects of chitin amount, incubation time, and changes in cell number or biomass. Overall, this is the first in situ study that has addressed the effects of multiple factors and their interactions on abundance, biomass, activity and community structure of microbial communities in the deep Arctic Ocean. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - The conservation of water resources in developed countries has become an increasing concern. In integrated water resource management, water quality indicators are critical. The... 相似文献
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Sébastien Rapinel Clémence Rozo Pauline Delbosc Damien Arvor Alban Thomas Jan-Bernard Bouzillé 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2020,57(1):60-73
ABSTRACTMonitoring the structural and functional dimensions of natural vegetation is a critical issue to ensure effective management of biodiversity. While coarse-resolution satellite image time-series have been used extensively to monitor vegetation physiognomies, their potential to describe plant species composition remains understudied. The objective of this study is to assess the potential of annual time-series of MODIS images to discriminate combinations of plant communities, called “vegetation series,” and characterize their structural and functional dimensions at the landscape scale. Twelve vegetation series were mapped in a 16 574 ha study area in a Mediterranean context located in Corsica (France). First, the structural dimension of vegetation series was examined using a random forest (RF) model calibrated with a reference field map to (i) measure the importance of each MODIS image in discriminating vegetation series; (ii) quantify the influence of the number of dates on model accuracy; and (iii) map the vegetation series with the optimal subset of MODIS images. Second, the functional dimension of vegetation series was analyzed by ordinating three functional indices through principal component analysis. These indices were the annual sum of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the annual amplitude of NDVI, and the date of maximum NDVI, considered as a proxy for annual primary production, seasonality of carbon fluxes, and vegetation phenology, respectively. Results showed that (i) vegetation series were mapped accurately (median Kappa index 0.70, median overall accuracy 0.76), preferably using images acquired from February to August; (ii) at least 10 MODIS images were required to achieve sufficient accuracy; and (iii) a functional gradient was detected, ranging from high annual net primary production with low seasonality of carbon fluxes and early phenology in Mediterranean vegetation series to low annual net primary production with high seasonality of carbon fluxes and late phenology in alpine vegetation series. 相似文献
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A model for underpressure development in a glacial valley,an example from Adventdalen,Svalbard 
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下载免费PDF全文 The underpressure observed in the glacial valley Adventdalen at Svalbard is studied numerically with a basin model and analytically with a compartment model. The pressure equation used in the basin model, which accounts for underpressure generation, is derived from mass conservation of pore fluid and solid, in addition to constitutive equations. The compartment model is derived as a similar pressure equation, which is based on a simplified representation of the basin geometry. It is used to derive analytical expressions for the underpressure (overpressure) from a series of unloading (loading) intervals. The compartment model gives a characteristic time for underpressure generation of each interval, which tells when the pressure state is transient or stationary. The transient pressure is linear in time for short‐time spans compared to the characteristic time, and then it is proportional to the weight removed from the surface. We compare different contributions to the underpressure generation and find that porosity rebound from unloading is more important than the decompression of the pore fluid during unloading and the thermal contraction of the pore fluid during cooling of the subsurface. Our modelling shows that the unloading from the last deglaciation can explain the present day underpressure. The basin model simulates the subsurface pressure resulting from erosion and unloading in addition to the fluid flow driven by the topography. Basin modelling indicates that the mountains surrounding the valley are more important for the topographic‐driven flow in the aquifer than the recharging in the neighbour valley. The compartment model turns out to be useful to estimate the orders of magnitude for system properties like seal and aquifer permeabilities and decompaction coefficients, despite its geometric simplicity. We estimate that the DeGeerdalen aquifer cannot have a permeability that is higher than 1 · 10?18 m2, as otherwise, the fluid flow in the aquifer becomes dominated by topographic‐driven flow. The upper value for the seal permeability is estimated to be 1 · 10?20 m2, as higher values preclude the generation and preservation of underpressure. The porosity rebound is estimated to be <0.1% during the last deglaciation using a decompaction coefficient αr = 1 · 10?9 Pa?1. 相似文献
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In this paper we present a brief overview of geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) theories and analyze their successful path without hiding their limitations. The history of the GIUH is subdivided into three major sections. The first is based on the milestone works of Rodríguez‐Iturbe and Valdés (Water Resources Research 1979; 15 (6): 1409–1420) and Gupta et al. (Water Resources Research 1980; 16 (5): 855–862), which recognized that a treatment of water discharges with ‘travel times’ could provide a rich interpretation of the theory of the instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH). We show how this was possible, what assumptions were made, which of these assumptions can be relaxed, and which have become obsolete and been discarded. The second section focuses on the width‐function‐based IUH (WFIUH) approach and its achievements in assessing the interplay of the topology and geometry of the network with water dynamics. The limitations of the WFIUH approach are described, and a way to work around them is suggested. Finally, a new formal approach to estimating the water budget by ‘travel times’, which derives from a suitable use of the water budget equation and some hypotheses, has been introduced and disentangled. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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