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1.
Decadal variability in the climate system from the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is one of the major sources of variability at this temporal scale that climate models must properly incorporate because of its climate impact. The current analysis of historical simulations of the twentieth century climate from models participating in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 projects assesses how these models portray the observed spatiotemporal features of the sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation anomalies associated with the AMO. A short sample of the models is analyzed in detail by using all ensembles available of the models CCSM3, GFDL-CM2.1, UKMO-HadCM3, and ECHAM5/MPI-OM from the CMIP3 project, and the models CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, UKMO-HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-LR from the CMIP5 project. The structure and evolution of the SST anomalies of the AMO have not progressed consistently from the CMIP3 to the CMIP5 models. While the characteristic period of the AMO (smoothed with a binomial filter applied fifty times) is underestimated by the three of the models, the e-folding time of the autocorrelations shows that all models underestimate the 44-year value from observations by almost 50 %. Variability of the AMO in the 10–20/70–80 year ranges is overestimated/underestimated in the models and the variability in the 10–20 year range increases in three of the models from the CMIP3 to the CMIP5 versions. Spatial variability and correlation of the AMO regressed precipitation and SST anomalies in summer and fall indicate that models are not up to the task of simulating the AMO impact on the hydroclimate over the neighboring continents. This is in spite of the fact that the spatial variability and correlations in the SST anomalies improve from CMIP3 to CMIP5 versions in two of the models. However, a multi-model mean from a sample of 14 models whose first ensemble was analyzed indicated there were no improvements in the structure of the SST anomalies of the AMO or associated regional precipitation anomalies in summer and fall from CMIP3 to CMIP5 projects. 相似文献
2.
Ecosystem-based marine spatial management: Review of concepts, policies, tools, and critical issues 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Stelios Katsanevakis Vanessa Stelzenmüller Andy South Thomas Kirk Sørensen Peter J.S. Jones Sandy Kerr Fabio Badalamenti Christos Anagnostou Patricia Breen Guillem Chust Giovanni D’Anna Mike Duijn Tatiana Filatova Fabio Fiorentino Helena Hulsman Kate Johnson Aristomenis P. Karageorgis Ingrid Kröncke Simone Mirto Carlo Pipitone Susan Portelli Wanfei Qiu Henning Reiss Dimitris Sakellariou Maria Salomidi Luc van Hoof Vassiliki Vassilopoulou Tomás Vega Fernández Sandra Vöge Anke Weber Argyro Zenetos Remment ter Hofstede 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2011,54(11):807-820
Conventional sectoral management and piecemeal governance are considered less and less appropriate in pursuit of sustainable development. Ecosystem based marine spatial management (EB-MSM) is an approach that recognizes the full array of interactions within an ecosystem, including human uses, rather than considering single issues, species, or ecosystem services in isolation. Marine spatial planning and ocean zoning are emerging concepts that can support EB-MSM. EB-MSM is driven by high-level goals that managers aim to achieve through the implementation of measures. High-level goals and objectives need to be translated into more operational objectives before specific targets, limits and measures can be elaborated.Monitoring, evaluation and adaptation are necessary to ensure that marine management measures are both effective and efficient. Solid monitoring frameworks are the foundation of adaptive management, as they provide the necessary information to evaluate performance and the effectiveness of management actions. Marine protected areas (MPAs) - possibly set up in networks - constitute a key component in EB-MSM policies and practises and have been applied as a cornerstone in conservation of marine biodiversity, management of fish populations, development of coastal tourism, etc. Moreover, MPA experiences have provided methods and concepts (such as zoning) to a wider EB-MSM context. The assignment of values to biophysical features of the marine environment allows the direct assessment of related management choices and may assist EB-MSM.A range of monetary valuation techniques have been proposed to reduce attributes of goods and services to a single metric. However, in the marine environment such an approach is often over simplistic, and thus less reductive techniques may be necessary. Rather than producing a single metric, the results of non-monetary assessments guide policy allowing weight to be given as necessary to potential areas of conflict and consensus.Strategies to take into account climate change effects and geohazard risks in EB-MSM have been applied or proposed worldwide. EB-MSM regimes must be alert to such risks and flexible to account for changes. 相似文献
3.
AMO’s structure and climate footprint in observations and IPCC AR5 climate simulations 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This study aims to characterize the spatiotemporal features of the low frequency Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), its oceanic and atmospheric footprint and its associated hydroclimate impact. To accomplish this, we compare and evaluate the representation of AMO-related features both in observations and in historical simulations of the twentieth century climate from models participating in the IPCC’s CMIP5 project. Climate models from international leading research institutions are chosen: CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, UKMO-HadCM3 and ECHAM6/MPI-ESM-LR. Each model employed includes at least three and as many as nine ensemble members. Our analysis suggests that the four models underestimate the characteristic period of the AMO, as well as its temporal variability; this is associated with an underestimation/overestimation of spectral peaks in the 70–80 year/10–20 year range. The four models manifest the mid-latitude focus of the AMO-related SST anomalies, as well as certain features of its subsurface heat content signal. However, they are limited when it comes to simulating some of the key oceanic and atmospheric footprints of the phenomenon, such as its signature on subsurface salinity, oceanic heat content and geopotential height anomalies. Thus, it is not surprising that the models are unable to capture the majority of the associated hydroclimate impact on the neighboring continents, including underestimation of the surface warming that is linked to the positive phase of the AMO and is critical for the models to be trusted on projections of future climate and decadal predictions. 相似文献
4.
Abstract. The changes in the concentrations of silicate, phosphate, and inorganic nitrogen in Eiefsis Bay. an intermittently anoxic basin, arc described and related to the changes in the physical properties of the water. Winter convection resulted in a very small vertical gradient of temperature, salinity, oxygen, and nutrients. Stratification started to develop in May and persisted for about 6 months. High values of silicate, phosphate, and ammonia occurred during the anoxic conditions prevailing in summer. The vertical transport of particulate organic matter and decomposition of abundant pelagic and benthic organic matter during the summer produced a low oxygen level in the bottom layer below the pycnoclinc. A high sea water temperature and vertical stability contributed to the development of anoxic conditions during the summer in the near bottom layer and to mass mortality of benthic macrofauna. Also the Eiefsis Bay anoxia appears to have had significant ecological effects on many other marine species, including several of economic importance. 相似文献
5.
Abstract. In the Cyclades plateau (Aegean Sea), a qualitative and quantitative analysis of macro-benthic fauna was carried out in 1986. Standard multivariate analysis techniques were applied to both ecological (living benthic fauna) and paleoecological data sets in order to distinguish distribution patterns.
Results showed that caution must prevail in drawing conclusions from a limited data set. The clearest classification was obtained using total living fauna, while the dead molluscan fauna gave a similar pattern; this indicates similar response to the environmental conditions of the area. In the analysis of the living molluscan fauna, the groups failed to show any clusters, probably as an effect of some impoverished sites.
In the two groups delineated, depth seems to be the major factor in the distribution of species.
The fact that two distinct data sets (subfossil assemblages and living communities), when treated separately, produce similar grouping indicates that the subfossil assemblages could be reliably used as a first approach for determination of the living communities' distribution patterns. 相似文献
Results showed that caution must prevail in drawing conclusions from a limited data set. The clearest classification was obtained using total living fauna, while the dead molluscan fauna gave a similar pattern; this indicates similar response to the environmental conditions of the area. In the analysis of the living molluscan fauna, the groups failed to show any clusters, probably as an effect of some impoverished sites.
In the two groups delineated, depth seems to be the major factor in the distribution of species.
The fact that two distinct data sets (subfossil assemblages and living communities), when treated separately, produce similar grouping indicates that the subfossil assemblages could be reliably used as a first approach for determination of the living communities' distribution patterns. 相似文献
6.
Sanja Grgurić Josip Križan Goran Gašparac Oleg Antonić Zdravko Špirić Rodelise E. Mamouri A. Christodoulou Argyro Nisantzi Athos Agapiou Kyriakos Themistocleous Kurt Fedra Charalambos Panayiotou Diofantos Hadjimitsis 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2014,6(1):2-16
This study analyzes the relationship between Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) obtained from Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and ground-based PM10 mass concentration distribution over a period of 5 years (2008–2012), and investigates the applicability of satellite AOD data for ground PM10 mapping for the Croatian territory. Many studies have shown that satellite AOD data are correlated to ground-based PM mass concentration. However, the relationship between AOD and PM is not explicit and there are unknowns that cause uncertainties in this relationship. The relationship between MODIS AOD and ground-based PM10 has been studied on the basis of a large data set where daily averaged PM10 data from the 12 air quality stations across Croatia over the 5 year period are correlated with AODs retrieved from MODIS Terra and Aqua. A database was developed to associate coincident MODIS AOD (independent) and PM10 data (dependent variable). Additional tested independent variables (predictors, estimators) included season, cloud fraction, and meteorological parameters — including temperature, air pressure, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, as well as planetary boundary layer height — using meteorological data from WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model. It has been found that 1) a univariate linear regression model fails at explaining the data variability well which suggests nonlinearity of the AOD-PM10 relationship, and 2) explanation of data variability can be improved with multivariate linear modeling and a neural network approach, using additional independent variables. 相似文献
7.
We calculate the expected flux of γ-ray and radio emission from the LMC due to neutralino annihilation. Using rotation curve data to probe the density profile and assuming a minimum disk, we describe the dark matter halo of the LMC using models predicted by N-body simulations. We consider a range of density profiles including the NFW profile, a modified NFW profile proposed by Hayashi et al. (2003) to account for the effects of tidal stripping, and an isothermal sphere with a core. We find that the γ-ray flux expected from these models may be detectable by GLAST for a significant part of the neutralino parameter space. The prospects for existing and upcoming Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes (ACTs) are less optimistic, as unrealistically long exposures are required for detection. However, the effects of adiabatic compression due to the baryonic component may improve the chances for detection by ACTs. The maximum flux we predict is well below EGRET's measurements and thus EGRET does not constrain the parameter space. The expected synchrotron emission generally lies below the observed radio emission from the LMC in the frequency range of 19.7–8550 MHz. As long as σv<2×10−26 cm3 s−1 for a neutralino mass of 50 GeV, the observed radio emission is not primarily due to neutralinos and is consistent with the assumption that the main source is cosmic rays. We find that the predicted fluxes, obtained by integrating over the entire LMC, are not very strongly dependent on the inner slope of the halo profile, varying by less than an order of magnitude for the range of profiles we considered. 相似文献
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9.
Zenetos A Hatzianestis J Lantzouni M Simboura M Sklivagou E Arvanitakis G 《Marine pollution bulletin》2004,48(1-2):122-131
The sinking of the tanker Eurobulker in Southern Evoikos gulf (Aegean Sea, Greece) in September 2000 resulted in a spill of 700 tons of crude oil. The environmental impact of the spill was studied by the National Centre for Marine Research. The hydrocarbon concentrations in water, sediment and coastal benthic organisms were measured and the response of the benthic communities to the disturbance caused by the oil spill was studied along the direction to the coast and over three sampling seasons. The most severe and direct effects were evidenced on the muddy benthic communities of the accident site and the stations in the close vicinity sampled shortly after the spill. The effects included reduction of the species richness and community diversity, but the communities reached full recovery 8 months later. The impact of the spill was more indirect and delayed in the coastal stations, where as the hydrocarbon measurements indicated, the pollutants were transported later and induced their effects on the benthic communities 6 months after the accident. 相似文献
10.
An&#;e Slosar Uro&#; Seljak Argyro Tasitsiomi 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,366(4):1455-1464
We investigate the properties of the pairwise velocity dispersion as a function of galaxy luminosity in the context of a halo model. We derive the distribution of velocities of pairs at a given separation taking into account both one- and two-halo contributions. We show that pairwise velocity distribution in real space is a complicated mixture of host–satellite, satellite–satellite (sat–sat) and two-halo pairs. The peak value is reached at around 1 h −1 Mpc and does not reflect the velocity dispersion of a typical halo hosting these galaxies, but is instead dominated by the sat–sat pairs in high-mass clusters. This is true even for cross-correlations between bins separated in luminosity. As a consequence, the velocity dispersion at a given separation can decrease with luminosity, even if the underlying typical halo host mass is increasing, in agreement with recent observations. We compare our findings to numerical simulations and find a good agreement. Numerical simulations also suggest a luminosity-dependent velocity bias, which depends on the subhalo mass. We develop models of the auto- and cross-correlation functions of luminosity subsamples of galaxies in the observable r proj –π space and calculate the inferred velocity dispersion as a function of wavevector if dispersion model is fit to the redshift-space power spectrum. We find that so-derived pairwise velocity dispersion also exhibits a bump at k ∼ 1 h Mpc−1 . 相似文献