The risk to New Zealand shellfish aquaculture from paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) toxins     

A. Lincoln MacKenzie 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2014,48(3):430-465

New Zealand's reputation as a supplier of high quality food products is vital to the national economy; international consumers are acutely aware of food safety issues and markets are increasingly demanding higher standards. Filter feeding bivalves are particularly sensitive to the nature of the environment in which they are grown, and quality assurance is a major preoccupation of the shellfish aquaculture industry. With the exception of a couple of incidents, most notably the Gymnodinium catenatum blooms in 2000–2003, paralytic shellfish toxin (PST) contamination has, to date, not had an important effect on the economics and sustainability of the industry. However, the dinoflagellate species responsible for producing these toxins are not uncommon in New Zealand coastal phytoplankton communities, and it is important that awareness of the potential risk is maintained. This review summarises what we know about the causes and incidence of PST contamination from research and monitoring over the last 20 years, since it was first identified in New Zealand. It describes the dynamics of major events and their consequences, and evaluates what is likely to happen in the future as aquaculture expands into new areas with known histories of this problem.  相似文献   

Tensile stresses around boreholes due to transient fluid flow     

Derek Y. C. Chan  Barry D. Hughes  Lincoln Paterson 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》1993,17(9):659-667

We present solutions for the effective stress induced by gas flow through a porous solid into a borehole resulting from sudden pressure reduction. Tensile effective stress that exceeds the strength of the solid will lead to borehole failure. This has applications to the intentional creation of cavities, relevant to the efficient recovery of coalbed methane, and the avoidance of borehole stability problems in conventional gas production.  相似文献   

Spectral Simulation and Conditioning to Local Continuity Trends in Geologic Modeling     

Tingting Yao  Craig Calvert  Tom Jones  Glen Bishop  Yuan Ma  Lincoln Foreman 《Mathematical Geology》2006,38(1):51-62

Spectral simulation has gained application in building geologic models due to the advantage of better honoring the spatial continuity of petrophysical properties, such as reservoir porosity and shale volume. Distinct from sequential simulation methods, spectral simulation is a global algorithm in the sense that a global density spectrum is calculated once and the inverse Fourier transform is performed on the Fourier coefficient also only once to generate a simulation realization. The generated realizations honor the spatial continuity structure globally over the whole field instead of only within a search neighborhood, as with sequential simulation algorithms. However, the disadvantage of global spectral simulation is that it traditionally cannot account for the local information such as the local continuity trends, which are often observed in reservoirs and hence are important to be accounted for in geologic models. This disadvantage has limited wider application of spectral simulation in building geologic models. In this paper, we present ways of conditioning geologic models to the relevant local information. To account for the local continuity trends, we first scale different frequency components of the original model with local-amplitude spectrum ratios that are specific to the local trend. The sum of these scaled frequency components renders a new model that displays the desired local continuity trend. The implementation details of this new method are discussed and examples are provided to illustrate the algorithm.  相似文献   

Conditioning Geologic Models to Local Continuity Azimuth in Spectral Simulation     

Tingting Yao  Craig Calvert  Tom Jones  Lincoln Foreman  Glen Bishop 《Mathematical Geology》2007,39(3):349-354

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The University of Durham Southern Hemisphere VHE gamma ray telescope     

K. T. Brazier  A. Carramiñana  P. M. Chadwick  T. R. Currell  N. A. Dipper  E. W. Lincoln  V. G. Mannings  T. J. L. McComb  K. J. Orford  S. M. Rayner  K. E. Turver 《Experimental Astronomy》1989,1(2):77-99

The design of very high energy (VHE) gamma ray telescopes is discussed and it is shown that a triple-mirror telescope operating in threefold fast coincidence provides an effective instrument. The design, construction and operation of a large VHE gamma ray telescope with an energy threshold of 300 GeV (at the zenith) and incorporating several novel features is described. The use of a coincidence guard ring technique is shown to result in the rejection of about 50% of the off-source (proton) events which form a high background and limit the sensitivity of such telescopes.  相似文献   

Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jose Antonio Marengo  Javier Tomasella  Wagner R. Soares  Lincoln M. Alves  Carlos A. Nobre 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(1-2):73-85

During 2009 the Amazon basin was hit by a heavy flooding with a magnitude and duration few times observed in several decades. Torrential rain in northern and eastern Amazonia during the austral summer of 2008–2009 swelled the Amazon River and its tributaries. By July 2009, water levels of the Rio Negro, a major Amazon tributary, reached at Manaus harbor a new record, the highest mark of the last 107?years. During the 2008–2009 hydrological year, the rainy season on northern and northwestern Amazonia started prematurely, and was followed by a longer-than-normal rainy season. An anomalously southward migration of the ITCZ during May–June 2009, due to the warmer than normal surface waters in the tropical South Atlantic, was responsible for abundant rainfall in large regions of eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil from May to July 2009. We also compared the flood of 2009 with other major events recorded in 1989 and 1999. The hydrological consequences of this pattern were earlier than normal floods in Amazon northern tributaries, which peak discharges at their confluences with the main stem almost coincided with the peaks of southern tributaries. Since the time displacement of the contribution to the main stem of northern and southern Amazon tributaries is fundamental for damping flood waves in the main stem, the simultaneous combinations of peak discharges of tributaries resulted in an extreme flood.  相似文献   

Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

Sin Chan Chou  José A. Marengo  André A. Lyra  Gustavo Sueiro  José F. Pesquero  Lincoln M. Alves  Gillian Kay  Richard Betts  Diego J. Chagas  Jorge L. Gomes  Josiane F. Bustamante  Priscila Tavares 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(3-4):635-653

The objective of this work is to evaluate climate simulations over South America using the regional Eta Model driven by four members of an ensemble of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 global model. The Eta Model has been modified with the purpose of performing long-term decadal integrations and has shown to reproduce “present climate”—the period 1961–1990—reasonably well when forced by HadCM3. The global model lateral conditions with a resolution of 2.5° latitude?×?3.75° longitude were provided at a frequency of 6?h. Each member of the global model ensemble has a different climate sensitivity, and the four members were selected to span the range of uncertainty encompassed by the ensemble. The Eta Model nested in the HadCM3 global model was configured with 40-km horizontal resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. No large-scale internal nudging was applied. Results are shown for austral summer and winter at present climate defined as 1961–90. The upper and low-level circulation patterns produced by the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 experiment set-up show good agreement with reanalysis data and the mean precipitation and temperature with CRU observation data. The spread in the downscaled mean precipitation and temperature is small when compared against model errors. On the other hand, the benefits in using an ensemble is clear in the improved representation of the seasonal cycle by the ensemble mean over any one realization. El Ni?o and La Ni?a years were identified in the HadCM3 member runs based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center criterion of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Ni?o 3.4 area. The frequency of the El Ni?o and La Ni?a events in the studied period is underestimated by HadCM3. The precipitation and temperature anomalies typical of these events are reproduced by most of the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 ensemble, although small displacements of the positions of the anomalies occur. This experiment configuration is the first step on the implementation of Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 upcoming experiments on climate change studies that are discussed in a companion paper.  相似文献   

Assessment of regional seasonal predictability using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system over South America   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lincoln M. Alves  José Marengo 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,100(3-4):337-350

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy and skill of the UK Met Office Hadley Center Regional Climate Model (HadRM3P) in describing the seasonal variability of the main climatological features over South America and adjacent oceans, in long-term simulations (30 years, 1961–1990). The analysis was performed using seasonal averages from observed and simulated precipitation, temperature, and lower- and upper-level circulation. Precipitation and temperature patterns as well as the main general circulation features, including details captured by the model at finer scales than those resolved by the global model, were simulated by the model. However, in the regional model, there are still systematic errors which might be related to the physics of the model (convective schemes, topography, and land-surface processes) and the lateral boundary conditions and possible biases inherited from the global model.  相似文献   

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jose A. Marengo  Tercio Ambrizzi  Rosmeri P. da Rocha  Lincoln M. Alves  Santiago V. Cuadra  Maria C. Valverde  Roger R. Torres  Daniel C. Santos  Simone E. T. Ferraz 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(6):1073-1097

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961–1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071–2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N–15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6–8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.  相似文献   

Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Harry F. Lee  Lincoln Fok  David D. Zhang 《Climatic change》2008,88(2):131-156

The climate–population relationship has long been conceived. Although the topic has been repeatedly investigated, most of the related works are Eurocentric or qualitative. Consequently, the relationship between climate and population remains ambiguous. In this study, fine-grained temperature reconstructions and historical population data sets have been employed to statistically test a hypothesized relationship between temperature change and population growth (i.e., cooling associated with below average population growth) in China over the past millennium. The important results were: (1) Long-term temperature change significantly determined the population growth dynamics of China. However, spatial variation existed, whilst population growth in Central China was shown to be responsive to both long- and short-term temperature changes; in marginal areas, population growth was only sensitive to short-term temperature fluctuations. (2) Temporally, the temperature–population relationship was obscured in some periods, which was attributable to the factors of drought and social buffers. In summary, a temperature–population relationship was mediated by geographic factors, the aridity threshold, and social factors. Given the upcoming threat posed by climate change to human societies, this study seeks to improve our knowledge and understanding of the climate–society relationship.  相似文献