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Diana Tingley Jóhann Ásmundsson Edward Borodzicz Alexis Conides Ben Drakeford Ingi Rúnar Eðvarðsson Dennis Holm Kostas Kapiris Sakari Kuikka Bogi Mortensen 《Marine Policy》2010
This paper presents the findings of risk identification and risk perception research conducted in relation to the fisheries systems of four distinct and diverse European countries: Faroes, Iceland, Greece and the UK. Risk research traditionally attempts to quantify the potential threat or consequences from a range of risk events or hazards. This research, however, adopted a social sciences perspective and so assumed that a risk event or hazard can mean different things to different people and that these perceptions are also context and culturally dependent. Risk perceptions were examined and risk registers developed in each country for a range of stakeholder groups. A ‘mental modelling’ approach was adopted in a series of qualitative interviews. Findings were examined in terms of a wide range of psychological, social and cultural risk theories. Differences in risk perceptions were noted between stakeholder groups and countries and contextual influences were examined such as the widely differing fisheries management systems used in each country. This research provides one of the first attempts to systematically evaluate risks and perceptions across a range of fisheries-systems. The findings support social science theories which argue that risk is a subjective, as opposed to objective, concept and that this subjectivity will therefore affect our attempts to assess and manage those hazards we think we can potentially influence or control. 相似文献
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Many analyses of the paleoclimate record include conclusions about extremes, with a focus on the unprecedented nature of recent climate events. While the use of extreme value theory is becoming common in the analysis of the instrumental climate record, applications of this framework to the spatio-temporal analysis of paleoclimate records remain limited. This article develops a Bayesian hierarchical model to investigate spatially varying trends and dependencies in the parameters characterizing the distribution of extremes of a proxy data set, and applies it to the site-wise decadal maxima and minima of a gridded network of temperature sensitive tree ring density time series over northern North America. The statistical analysis reveals significant spatial associations in the temporal trends of the location parameters of the generalized extreme value distributions: maxima are increasing as a function of time, with stronger increases in the north and east of North America; minima are significantly increasing in the west, possibly decreasing in the east, and exhibit no changes in the center of the region. Results indicate that the distribution varies as a function of both space and time, with tree ring density maxima becoming more extreme as a function of time and minima having diverging temporal trends, by spatial location. Results of this proxy-only analysis are a first step towards directly reconstructing extremal climate behavior, as opposed to mean climate behavior, by linking extremes in the proxy record to extremes in the instrumental record. 相似文献
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Base flow‐driven shifts in tropical stream temperature regimes across a mean annual rainfall gradient 
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下载免费PDF全文 Climate change is expected to affect air temperature and watershed hydrology, but the degree to which these concurrent changes affect stream temperature is not well documented in the tropics. How stream temperature varies over time under changing hydrologic conditions is difficult to isolate from seasonal changes in air temperature. Groundwater and bank storage contributions to stream flow (i.e., base flow [BF]) buffer water temperatures against seasonal and daily fluctuations in solar radiation and air temperature, whereas rainfall‐driven runoff produces flooding events that also influence stream temperature. We used a space‐for‐time substitution to examine how shifts in BF and runoff alter thermal regimes in streams by analyzing hydrological and temperature data collected from similar elevations (400–510 m above sea level) across a 3,500‐mm mean annual rainfall gradient on Hawai'i Island. Sub‐daily water temperature and stream flow gathered for 3 years were analyzed for daily, monthly, and seasonal trends and compared with air temperature measured at multiple elevations. Results indicate that decreases in median BF increased mean, maximum, and minimum water temperatures as well as daily temperature range. Monthly and daily trends in stream temperature among watersheds were more pronounced than air temperature, driven by differences in groundwater inputs and runoff. Stream temperature was strongly negatively correlated to BF during the dry season but not during the wet season due to frequent wet season runoff events contributing to total flow. In addition to projected increases in global air temperature, climate driven shifts in rainfall and runoff are likely to affect stream flow and groundwater recharge, with concurrent influences on BF resulting in shifts in water temperature that are likely to affect aquatic ecosystems. 相似文献
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C. Cavarroc C. Moutou D. Gandolfi B. Tingley M. Ollivier S. Aigrain R. Alonso J.-M. Almenara M. Auvergne A. Baglin P. Barge A. S. Bonomo P. Bordé F. Bouchy J. Cabrera S. Carpano L. Carone W. D. Cochran S. Csizmadia H. J. Deeg M. Deleuil R. F. Díaz R. Dvorak M. Endl A. Erikson M. Fridlund M. Gillon E. W. Guenther T. Guillot A. Hatzes G. Hébrard L. Jorda A. Léger H. Lammer T.-O. Lev C. Lovis P. J. MacQueen T. Mazeh A. Ofir H. Parviainen T. Pasternacki M. P?tzold D. Queloz H. Rauer D. Rouan B. Samuel A. Santerne J. Schneider J. Weingrill G. Wuchterl 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2012,337(2):511-529
CoRoT is a space telescope which aims at studying internal structure of stars and detecting extrasolar planets. We present here a list of transits detected in the light curves of stars observed by CoRoT in two fields in the anti-center direction: the LRa03 one observed during 148 days from 3 October 2009 to 1 March 2010 followed by the SRa03 one from the 5 March 2010 to the 29 March 2010 during 25 days. 5329 light curves for the LRa03 field and 4169 for the SRa03 field were analyzed by the detection team of CoRoT. Then some of the selected exoplanetary candidates have been followed up from the ground. In the LRa03 field, 19 exoplanet candidates have been found, 8?remain unsolved. No secured planet has been found yet. In the SRa03 field, there were 11 exoplanetary candidates among which 6 cases remain unsolved and 3 planets have been found: CoRoT-18b, CoRoT-19b, CoRoT-20b. 相似文献
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Existing multi-proxy climate reconstruction methods assume the suitably transformed proxy time series are linearly related to the target climate variable, which is likely a simplifying assumption for many proxy records. Furthermore, with a single exception, these methods face problems with varying temporal resolutions of the proxy data. Here we introduce a new reconstruction method that uses the ordering of all pairs of proxy observations within each record to arrive at a consensus time series that best agrees with all proxy records. The resulting unitless composite time series is subsequently calibrated to the instrumental record to provide an estimate of past climate. By considering only pairwise comparisons, this method, which we call PaiCo, facilitates the inclusion of records with differing temporal resolutions, and relaxes the assumption of linearity to the more general assumption of a monotonically increasing relationship between each proxy series and the target climate variable. We apply PaiCo to a newly assembled collection of high-quality proxy data to reconstruct the mean temperature of the Northernmost Atlantic region, which we call Arctic Atlantic, over the last 2,000 years. The Arctic Atlantic is a dynamically important region known to feature substantial temperature variability over recent millennia, and PaiCo allows for a more thorough investigation of the Arctic Atlantic regional climate as we include a diverse array of terrestrial and marine proxies with annual to multidecadal temporal resolutions. Comparisons of the PaiCo reconstruction to recent reconstructions covering larger areas indicate greater climatic variability in the Arctic Atlantic than for the Arctic as a whole. The Arctic Atlantic reconstruction features temperatures during the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly that are comparable or even warmer than those of the twentieth century, and coldest temperatures in the middle of the nineteenth century, just prior to the onset of the recent warming trend. 相似文献
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