Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage     

Catarina Costa  Rui Figueiredo  Vitor Silva  Paolo Bazzurro 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(12):1236-1255

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.  相似文献   

Separation of PP- and PS-wave reflected seismic data using two-dimensional finite offset common-reflection-surface traveltime approximation     

Raphael Di Carlo Silva dos Santos  João Carlos Ribeiro Cruz  Manuel de Jesus dos Santos Costa 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(7):2046-2063

Recently, the interest in PS-converted waves has increased for several applications, such as sub-basalt layer imaging, impedance estimates and amplitude-versus-offset analysis. In this study, we consider the problem of separation of PP- and PS-waves from pre-stacked multicomponent seismic data in two-dimensional isotropic medium. We aim to demonstrate that the finite-offset common-reflection-surface traveltime approximation is a good alternative for separating PP- and PS-converted waves in common-offset and common shot configurations by considering a two-dimensional isotropic medium. The five parameters of the finite-offset common-reflection-surface are firstly estimated through the inversion methodology called very fast simulated annealing, which estimates all parameters simultaneously. Next, the emergence angle, one of the inverted parameters, is used to build an analytical separation function of PP and PS reflection separation based on the wave polarization equations. Once the PP- and PS-converted waves were separated, the sections are stacked to increase the signal-to-noise ratio using the special curves derived from finite-offset common-reflection-surface approximation. We applied this methodology to a synthetic dataset from simple-layered to complex-structured media. The numerical results showed that the inverted parameters of the finite offset common-reflection-surface and the separation function yield good results for separating PP- and PS-converted waves in noisy common-offset and common shot gathers.  相似文献   

The Cabo Frio upwelling overrides geographical patterns in the population dynamics of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris Spence Bate, 1888 (Decapoda: Penaeidae)     

Abner Carvalho‐Batista  Joo Alberto Farinelli Pantaleo  Antonio Leo Castilho  Rogrio Caetano da Costa 《Marine Ecology》2019,40(2)

Upwelling areas are among the most productive ecosystems on the planet, influencing the biology of marine organisms. This study investigated the population dynamics of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris in two regions in southeastern Brazil, one inside (Macaé—Rio de Janeiro State) and one outside (Ubatuba—State of São Paulo) the Cabo Frio upwelling area. The aim was to verify the influence of the upwelling phenomenon on the abundance, growth, longevity, size of sexual maturity, and reproductive period of the species. In total, 188,902 individuals were captured at Macaé and 3,461 at Ubatuba. Individuals captured at Macaé showed larger maximum size, higher longevity, and slower growth rate, besides reaching sexual maturity at larger sizes than at Ubatuba. Continuous reproduction was observed in both regions, with juvenile recruitment peaks in spring and summer. Local conditions observed at Macaé were influenced by the Cabo Frio upwelling zone, characterized by productive and cooler waters that are around 20°C during most of the year. The upwelling phenomenon is probably the main factor influencing the population parameters studied here, changing the geographic patterns previously observed for the variation of these parameters in A. longinaris.  相似文献   

Correction to: Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment,Paraíba,Brazil     

da Silva  Richarde Marques  Santos  Celso Augusto Guimarães  Silva  Jorge Flávio Casé Braga da Costa  Silva  Alexandro Medeiros  Brasil Neto  Reginaldo Moura 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(2):1953-1954

Natural Hazards - The article “Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil”, written by da...  相似文献   

Oscillations in the Flaring Active Region NOAA 11272     

S. M. Conde Cuellar  J. E. R. Costa  C. E. Cedeño Montaña 《Solar physics》2016,291(11):3289-3302

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An ecosystem-based composite spatial model for floodplain vulnerability assessment: a case study of Artigas,Uruguay     

Freitas  Gabriel  Díaz  Ismael  Bessonart  Martín  da Costa  Edwin  Achkar  Marcel 《GeoJournal》2021,86(3):1155-1171

Floods are natural processes that constitute a hazard to society when associated to improper land use. Anthropic activities in floodplains are a factor of vulnerability that converts a natural hazard into a threat factor, eventually leading to disaster. Nowadays, natural and social complex processes demand integrated assessments in order to improve their understanding, helping decision making over sustainable use of territory, as well as integrating society’s activity in ecosystems and potentials, restrictions and benefits that society obtain from them. In this context, the objective of this work was to build a composite vulnerability model for a floodplain under urban influence, using an integrated assessment approach. This model was based on three dimensions; threat, fragility and an ecosystem services provision. These dimensions were calculated using both primary and secondary information, and weights by specialists. Main results show that the area presents high vulnerability with an increasing gradient towards high and urbanized areas, associated with an important number and relevant ecosystem services. Also, a spatial heterogeneity of the three dimensions emerged, making evident this area’s complexity and the need of integrated assessments to approach it. The composite vulnerability model proposed presents an elevated potential for natural and social processes analysis in floodplains, which is crucial for these territory management. Moreover, these integrated dimensions could contribute to decision making in different levels, as well as generating important supplies for environmental management and land planning.

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A framework for addressing the lack of diversity in the Geosciences through evaluating the current structure of institutional efforts     

Guhlincozzi  A&#;da  Cisneros  Julia 《GeoJournal》2021,87(2):171-183

How can universities build institutional partnerships through supporting community geography projects? This paper details the case of university members seeking to achieve a community goal of expanding Geosciences education opportunities, while also targeting a long-range goal of improving diversity within the university Geosciences. Over the course of one year, two Ph.D students collaborated with community members affiliated with a local middle school to design and organize the School of Earth, Society, and Environment (SESE) Geosciences Camp for Middle School Girls, held in August 2019. This paper deconstructs and critiques the camp organizing process and its outcomes. The conclusion addresses what worked and what did not as a model for future attempts at more sustainable institutional partnerships serving community geography projects.

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Social and environmental vulnerability in Southeast Brazil associated with the South Atlantic Convergence Zone     

da Fonseca Aguiar  Louise  Cataldi  Marcio 《Natural Hazards》2021,108(3):2423-2453

Natural Hazards - A landslide is a geomorphological hazard with significant ecological and economic damages. The present study aimed to identify landslide-prone areas in Farizi watershed via the...  相似文献   

The P-y Response of Laterally Loaded Flexible Piles in Residual Soil     

Consoli  Nilo Cesar  Reginato  Naiara da Costa  Lopes Júnior  Luizmar da Silva  Rocha  Marcelo Maia  Faro  Vítor Pereira  Born  Ricardo Bergan 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2021,39(6):4295-4313

This paper describes the main features related to lateral displacements with depth after successive lateral loading–unloading cycles applied to the top of reinforced-concrete flexible bored piles embedded in naturally bonded residual soil. The bored piles under study have a cylindrical shape, with 0.40-m in diameter and 8.0-m in length. Both bored piles types (P1 and P2) include an embedded steel pipe section in their center as longitudinal steel reinforcements: pile type P1 has another 16 steel rods as steel reinforcement to concrete while pile type P2 has no further steel reinforcement. Pile type P1 has three times as much stiffness (EI) and four and a half times the plastic moment (M_y) than pile type P2. A similar load–displacement performance was observed at initial loads as for small displacements of both piles. At this initial loading stage, the response of the reinforced concrete piles is a function of the soil characteristics and of a linear elastic pile deformation. During this stage, piles can even be understood as probes for evaluating soil reactions. For larger horizontal displacements, after the concrete section starts undergoing large deformations, approaching the ultimate bending moment, pile behavior and consequently the load–displacement relation starts to diverge for both piles. For pile P1 the values of relevant lateral displacements are extended to about 2.5-m in depth, while for pile P2 lateral displacements are mostly constrained to about 2.0-m in depth. Measurements of horizontal displacements of pile P1 against depth recorded with a slope indicator show that, after unloading, lateral loads at distinct stages (small and near failure loads), exhibits a much higher elastic phase of the system response. An analytical fitting model of soil reaction is proposed based on the measured displacements from slope indicator. The integration of a continuous model proposed for the soil reaction agrees fairly well with the measured displacements up to moments close to plastic limit. Results of load–displacement show that the stiffer pile (P1) was able to mobilize twice as much lateral load compared to pile P2 for a service limit displacement of about 20 mm. The paper shows results that enable the isolation of the structural variable through real scale pile load tests, thus granting understanding of its importance and enabling its quantitative visualization in examples of piles embedded in residual soil sites.

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Predicting the impact of management and climate scenarios on groundwater nitrate concentration trends in southern Portugal     

Costa  Lu&#;s R. D.  Hugman  Rui T.  Stigter  Tibor Y.  Monteiro  Jos&#; Paulo 《Hydrogeology Journal》2021,29(7):2501-2516

Hydrogeology Journal - The dynamics related to evolution of nitrate-contaminated groundwater are analyzed with focus on the impact of intrinsic aquifer properties, agricultural activities and...  相似文献