排序方式： 共有9条查询结果，搜索用时 140 毫秒
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Charles A. Stock Michael A. Alexander Nicholas A. Bond Keith M. Brander William W.L. Cheung Enrique N. Curchitser Thomas L. Delworth John P. Dunne Stephen M. Griffies Melissa A. Haltuch Jonathan A. Hare Anne B. Hollowed Patrick Lehodey Simon A. Levin Jason S. Link Kenneth A. Rose Ryan R. Rykaczewski Jorge L. Sarmiento Ronald J. Stouffer Franklin B. Schwing Francisco E. Werner 《Progress in Oceanography》2011,88(1-4):1-27
The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models. 相似文献
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Anne Babcock Hollowed Enrique N. Curchitser Charles A. Stock Chang Ik Zhang 《Climatic change》2013,119(1):111-129
Considerable progress has been made in integrating carbon, nutrient, phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics into global-scale physical climate models. Scientists are exploring ways to extend the resolution of the biosphere within these Earth system models (ESMs) to include impacts on global distribution and abundance of commercially exploited fish and shellfish. This paper compares different methods for modeling fish and shellfish responses to climate change on global and regional scales. Several different modeling approaches are considered including: direct applications of ESM’s, use of ESM output for estimation of shifts in bioclimatic windows, using ESM outputs to force single- and multi-species stock projection models, and using ESM and physical climate model outputs to force regional bio-physical models of varying complexity and mechanistic resolution. We evaluate the utility of each of these modeling approaches in addressing nine key questions relevant to climate change impacts on living marine resources. No single modeling approach was capable of fully addressing each question. A blend of highly mechanistic and less computationally intensive methods is recommended to gain mechanistic insights and to identify model uncertainties. 相似文献
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Elizabeth A. Logerwell Phyllis J. Stabeno Christopher D. Wilson Anne B. Hollowed 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2007,54(23-26):2849
Results from this study suggest that small-scale variability in the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC) and competition between juvenile pollock and capelin are potential mechanisms affecting the distribution and abundance of fishes in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Fish distributions in Barnabus Trough, off the east coast of Kodiak Island, were assessed using acoustic data collected with a calibrated echosounder during August–September 2002 and 2004. Trawl hauls were conducted to determine the species composition of the fish making up the acoustic backscatter. Oceanographic data were collected from moorings, conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) probes, trawl-mounted microbathythermographs (MBT) and expendable bathythermographs (XBT). National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data were used to assess area winds, and information on regional transport was derived from current meters deployed on moorings north and south of Kodiak Island. The distribution of water-mass properties and fish during 2002 showed variability at the temporal scale of weeks. Juvenile pollock (age-1 and age-2) were initially most abundant in warm, low-salinity water on the inner shelf, whereas capelin were distributed primarily on the outer shelf in cool, high-salinity waters. During a 2-week period juvenile pollock distribution expanded with the offshore expansion of warm, low-salinity water, and capelin abundance in outer-shelf waters decreased. We hypothesize that wind-driven pulsing of the ACC resulted in increased transport of warm, low-salinity water through the study area. In 2004, warm, low-salinity water characterized the inner shelf and cool, high-salinity water was found on the outer shelf. However, the distribution of water-mass properties did not show the weekly scale variability observed in 2002. Area winds were consistently toward the southwest during 2004, such that we would not expect to see the wind-driven pulsing of ACC water that occurred in 2002. Age-1 and age-2 pollock were not observed in Barnabus Trough in 2004. Instead, the midwater acoustic backscatter was composed of capelin mixed with age-0 pollock, and these capelin were not restricted to the outer-shelf waters, but were found primarily in warm, low-salinity inner-shelf waters that had been previously occupied exclusively by age-1 and age-2 pollock. We suggest that this is consistent with inner-shelf waters being preferred foraging habitat for juvenile pollock and capelin. Further study of the mechanisms linking climate change with variability in the ACC is needed, as are studies of the potential for competition between juvenile pollock and capelin. 相似文献
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Are multispecies models an improvement on single-species models for measuring fishing impacts on marine ecosystems? 总被引：13，自引：6，他引：7
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M. J. Salinger J. D. Bell K. Evans A. J. Hobday V. Allain K. Brander P. Dexter D. E. Harrison A. B. Hollowed B. Lee R. Stefanski 《Climatic change》2013,119(1):213-221
Several lines of evidence show that climatic variation and global warming can have a major effect on fisheries production and replenishment. To prevent overfishing and rebuild overfished stocks under changing and uncertain environmental conditions, new research partnerships between fisheries scientists and climate change experts are required. The International Workshop on Climate and Oceanic Fisheries held in Rarotonga, Cook Islands, 3–5 October 2011, brought representatives from these disciplines together to consider the effects of climate variability and change on oceanic fisheries, the tools and strategies required for identifying potential impacts on oceanic fisheries, and the priority adaptations for sustaining future harvests, especially in the Pacific Ocean. Recommendations made by the workshop included (1) development and implementation of sustainable management measures for fisheries; (2) long-term commitment to monitoring necessary to assess stock status and to conduct integrated ecosystem assessments; (3) process oriented research to evaluate the potential of marine species for adaptation to a changing ocean environment; (4) provision of improved national meteorological and hydrological services to fisheries agencies, enterprises and communities; (5) continuing communication of potential impacts and adaptation strategies to stakeholders to reduce the threats to oceanic fisheries and capitalise on opportunities; and (6) continued collaborative efforts between meteorological, oceanographic, biological and fisheries researchers and management agencies to better monitor and understand the impacts of short-term variability and longer-term change on oceanic fisheries. 相似文献
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Pacific Basin climate variability and patterns of Northeast Pacific marine fish production 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A review of oceanographic and climate data from the North Pacific and Bering Sea has revealed climate events that occur on two principal time scales: a) 2–7 years (i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO), and b) inter-decadal (i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO). The timing of ENSO events and of related oceanic changes at higher latitudes were examined. The frequency of ENSO was high in the 1980s. Evidence of ENSO forcing on ocean conditions in the North Pacific (Niño North conditions) showed ENSO events were more frequently observed along the West Coast than in the western Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and Eastern Bering Sea (EBS). Time series of catches for 30 region/species groups of salmon, and recruitment data for 29 groundfish and 5 non-salmonid pelagic species, were examined for evidence of a statistical relationship with any of the time scales associated with Niño North conditions or the PDO. Some flatfish stocks exhibited high autocorrelation in recruitment coupled with a significant step in recruitment in 1977 suggesting a relationship between PDO forcing and recruitment success. Five of the dominant gadid stocks (EBS and GOA Pacific cod, Pacific hake and EBS and GOA walleye pollock) exhibited low autocorrelation in recruitment. Of these, Pacific hake, GOA walleye pollock and GOA Pacific cod exhibited significantly higher incidence of strong year classes in years associated with Niño North conditions. These findings suggest that the PDO and ENSO may play an important role in governing year-class strength of several Northeast Pacific marine fish stocks. 相似文献
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