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1.
One possible approach to estimating the time interval between large-scale Tōnankai (Tōkai) and Nankai earthquakes on the Japan arc is sequential assimilation of crustal deformation data. We conducted numerical modeling of sequential assimilation using surface deformation calculated from earthquake generation cycle simulations along the Nankai Trough. To account for observation noise, we used measured ocean bottom pressure gauge data, excluding tidal modulation, from a station on the ocean bottom cable network Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the Kumano basin. We used sequential importance sampling as our data assimilation method. We found that as the amount of data increased, the estimated time interval between the Tōnankai and Nankai earthquakes approached the “true” observed interval. In addition, the noise in the pressure gauge data was sufficiently small that simulated crustal deformation patterns could be distinguished for different time intervals.  相似文献   
2.
To assess the potential of stable isotope ratios as an indicator of fish migration within estuaries, stable isotope ratios in important zooplankton species were analyzed in relation to estuarine salinity gradients. Gut contents from migratory juveniles of the euryhaline marine fish Lateolabrax japonicus were examined along the Chikugo River estuary of the Ariake Sea, which has the most developed estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) in Japan. Early juveniles in March and April preyed primarily on two copepod species; Sinocalanus sinensis at lower salinities and Acartia omorii at higher salinities. Late juveniles (standard length > 40 mm) at lower salinities preyed exclusively on the mysid Acanthomysis longirostris until July and complementarily on the decapod Acetes japonicus in August. These prey species were collected along the estuary during the spring–summer seasons of 2003 and 2004, and their carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) were evaluated. The δ13C values of prey species were distinct from each other and were primarily depleted within and in close proximity to the ETM (salinity < 10); S. sinensis (−26.6‰) < Acanthomysis longirostris (−23.3‰) < Acartia omorii (−21.1‰) < Acetes japonicus (−18.5‰). The overall gradient of δ13C with salinity occurred for all prey species and showed minor temporal fluctuations, while it was not directly influenced by the δ13C values in particulate organic matter along the estuary. In contrast to δ13C, the δ15N values of prey species did not exhibit any clear relationship with salinity. The present study demonstrated that δ13C has the potential for application as a tracer of fish migration into lower salinity areas including the ETM.  相似文献   
3.
In order to clarify how differences in weather conditions affect the surface heat balance of a large maritime glacier, meteorological observations were carried out in the ablation area of Glaciar Exploradores in the Chilean Patagonia during the austral summer of 2006/2007. Under cloudy/rainy weather, when the air temperature and wind speed were high due to advection, the average melting heat was 18.8 MJ m?2 day?1 and the turbulent heat fluxes contributed 35% of the total melt. During clear weather, the average melting heat was 16.9 MJ m?2 day?1 and 13% of the total was the turbulent heat fluxes. A decrease in air temperature due to the development of the glacier boundary layer on clear days will lead to an overestimation of the melt using the air temperature at a weather station outside of the glacier.  相似文献   
4.
To investigate the characteristics of ablation at Koryto Glacier, a mountain glacier under maritime climate in Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, we made field observations from August to early September 2000. At a site near the equilibrium line, the 31‐day average net radiation, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux were 43, 59 and 31 W?2, respectively. We developed a new distributed ablation model, which only needs measurements of air temperature and global radiation at one site. Hourly ablation rates at this site obtained by the energy balance method are related to measured air temperature and global radiation by linear multiple regression. A different set of multiple regression coefficients is fitted for snow and ice surfaces. Better estimates of ablation rate can be obtained by this approach than by other temperature index models. These equations are then applied to each grid cell of a digital elevation model to estimate spatially distributed hourly melt. Air temperature is extrapolated using a constant temperature lapse rate and global radiation is distributed considering topographic effects. The model enables us to calculate the hourly spatial distribution of ablation rates within the glacier area and could well provide a realistic simulation of ablation over the whole glacier.  相似文献   
5.
Inversion of tsunami waveforms is a well-established technique for estimating the slip distributions of subduction zone earthquakes, with some of the most detailed results having been obtained for earthquakes in the Nankai Trough, SW Japan. The present study, although it uses a method and tsunami waveform data set almost identical to previous study, aims to improve on previous work by using a more precise specification of initial conditions for the calculation of tsunami Green's functions. Specifically, we incorporated four improvements in the present study: (1) we used a realistic plate model based only on seismic survey results, and assumed it to be the fault plane of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake; (2) the smallest subfaults consistent with the long wavelength approximation were used in the tsunami inversion analysis; (3) we included the effect of horizontal displacement of the ocean bottom on tsunami generation; and (4) we performed a checkerboard resolution test. As obtained in previous studies, a zone of high slip (> 2.0 m) was resolved off the Shima Peninsula. However, the more precise calculation of tsunami Green's functions has revealed additional detail that was not evident in previous studies, which we demonstrate is resolvable and correlates with the position of known faults in the accretionary prism. While there was little or no slip near the trench axis in the eastern part of the rupture zone, there was up to 1.5 m of slip resolved within 30 km of the trough axis in the western part, along the coast of the Kii Peninsula. This troughward slip zone coincides with the position of a large splay fault mapped in multichannel reflection surveys. Furthermore, it is also clear that the upper edge of the Enshu fault off Shima and Atsumi peninsulas is consistent with the up-dip limit of slip in the eastern part of our model. We tested the possibility that slip occurred on the former splay fault instead of on the plate interface during the 1944 Tonankai earthquake, and find that slip on this splay fault is also consistent with the data, although we cannot distinguish whether slip was dominant on the splay fault or on the plate interface. We further suggest that the position of the Enshu fault may be determined by the subduction of topographic highs, and that such faults may have an important influence on the up-dip rupture limit of the 1944 Tonankai and, potentially, other subduction zone earthquakes.  相似文献   
6.
In order to understand the characteristics of shallow very low-frequency (VLF) events as revealed by recent ocean-floor observation studies, we perform a trial simulation of earthquake cycles in the Tonankai district by taking the characteristics of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake and assuming that slow earthquakes occur on numerous small asperities. Our simulation results show that the increase of moment release rate of shallower VLF events in the pre-seismic stage of a megathrust earthquake is higher than that of deeper VLF events. This increase may make leveling change due to VLF swarms detectable at Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET). We also introduce the time series of hydraulic pressure data at DONET, comparing with the leveling change expected from our numerical simulation. Since leveling change due to shallower VLF swarms is so local as to be incoherent, removal of the moving-averaged data from the data stacked by four nearby observation points in the same node may be useful to detect the short-term local leveling change.  相似文献   
7.
Using data from a survey carried out in six tobacco growing villages across Malawi in 2004–5, this paper summarizes some main differences found in subsistence production and income levels between male‐ and female‐headed households and the disparities among female‐headed households in the light of economic liberalization policies of the past two decades. The disadvantaged position of female‐headed households in terms of land and labour endowment, together with the high cost of inputs since the structural adjustment programmes and removal of subsidies since the 1980s has prevented poorer female‐headed households not only from attaining maize self‐sufficiency, but also from engaging in high‐return agriculture such as tobacco production. Although livelihood diversification is adopted by both male‐ and female‐headed households, many female‐headed households still depend on low‐entry‐barrier activities such as agricultural waged labour and are unable to break out of the poverty cycle. However, female‐headed households are a heterogeneous category and factors such as the availability of nonfarm income opportunities, social networks to access labour and capital, land acquisition through flexible applications of patrilineal inheritance rules, and the existence of formal channels for credit and informal tobacco trading have enabled some to improve agricultural productivity and achieve high incomes.  相似文献   
8.
Recently, the occurrence of slow earthquakes such as low-frequency earthquakes and very low-frequency earthquakes have been recognized at depths of about 30 km in southwest Japan and Cascadia. These slow earthquakes occur sometimes in isolation and sometimes break into chain-reaction, producing tremor that migrates at a speed of about 5–15 km/day and suggesting a strong interaction among nearby small asperities. In this study, we formulate a 3-D subduction plate boundary model with two types of small asperities chained along the trench at the depth of 30 km. Our simulation succeeds in representing various types of slow earthquakes including low-frequency earthquakes and rapid slip velocity in the same asperity, and indicates that interaction between asperities may cause the very low-frequency earthquakes. Our simulation also shows chain reaction along trench with propagation speed that can be made consistent with observations by adjusting model parameters, which suggests that the interactions also explain the observed migration of slow earthquakes.  相似文献   
9.
The Hyuga-nada region of southwest Japan, which is located off the east coast of Kyushu Island, may have the potential to generate great interplate earthquakes along the Nankai trough in the future. In this area, thrust earthquakes of M = 6.7–7.2 have occurred with recurrence intervals of approximately 30 years. In association with these earthquakes, possible local heterogeneities of plate coupling may be expected within 100 km from the coast in the Hyuga-nada region. We investigate numerical experiments to determine the spatial and temporal resolution of slip on the plate interface beneath the Hyuga-nada offshore region. For this purpose, we calculated synthetic displacement data from the result of numerical simulation conducted for the afterslip following an Mw 6.8 earthquake, for existing global positioning system stations on land and planned ocean floor seismic network stations. The spatial and temporal distribution of fault slip is then estimated using a Kalman filter-based inversion. The slip distribution estimated by using ocean floor stations demonstrates that the heterogeneity of plate coupling is resolved approximately within 50 km from the coastal area. This heterogeneity corresponds to the coseismic area of an Mw 6.8 earthquake with a radius of 10 km. Our study quantitatively evaluates the spatial resolution of aseismic slip in the Hyuga-nada region. Analysis based on continuous ocean floor data is useful for resolving the spatial variations of heterogeneities in plate couplings.  相似文献   
10.

When a subduction-zone earthquake occurs, the tsunami height must be predicted to cope with the damage generated by the tsunami. Therefore, tsunami height prediction methods have been studied using simulation data acquired by large-scale calculations. In this research, we consider the existence of a nonlinear power law relationship between the water pressure gauge data observed by the Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) and the coastal tsunami height. Using this relationship, we propose a nonlinear parametric model and conduct a prediction experiment to compare the accuracy of the proposed method with those of previous methods and implement particular improvements to the extrapolation accuracy.

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