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We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.  相似文献   
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朱兰娟  储长树 《气象》1997,23(12):47-51
通过对低温敏核不育系培矮64S育性敏感期间冷水处理后温度场分布特征和自交结实率的资料分析,得出培矮64S的灌水始期是冷灌后的见穗期往前推18天,终止期为见穗期往前推3天,灌水深度前10天为15cm,,后5天为20cm,,为“冷繁”技术在生产上应用提供了理论依据。  相似文献   
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The objective of this work is to assess the concentrations of three factions of air particles (settable particles, TSP and PM10) and the levels of several toxic elements in a clay atomisation industry through aerosol sampling at several points inside an industrial plant. Mechanical activities, which produce diffuse emissions, are the main process of discharge of particles in both indoor and outdoor workplace environments in the atomisation plant. The levels of As, Cd, Pb, Zn, Ba and Ni increase in the zones with higher concentrations of particles and lower ventilation. The concentrations of As and F are not influenced by the recycling processes. The levels of Cd and Pb do not show great enrichment in air particles collected inside the atomisation plant although the content of both elements is associated with ceramic muck recycling. Finally, the content of B in waste water is mainly transferred in gaseous phase to the atmosphere during the process of drying by atomisation.  相似文献   
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Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km2 area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I MAP, normalized daily rainfall R MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.  相似文献   
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Genetic stock identification studies have been widely applied to Pacific salmon species to estimate stock composition of complex mixed-stock fisheries. In a September-October 2004 survey, 739 chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) specimens were collected from 23 stations in the western Bering Sea. We determined the genetic stock composition of immature chum salmon based on the previous mitochondria DNA baseline. Each regional estimate was computed based on the conditional maximum likelihood method using 1,000 bootstrap resampling and then pooled to the major regional groups: Korea - Japan - Primorie (KJP) / Russia (RU) / Northwest Alaska (NWA) / Alaska Peninsula - Southcentral Alaska - Southeast Alaska - British Columbia - Washington (ONA). The stock composition of immature chum salmon in the western Bering Sea was a mix of 0.424 KJP, 0.421 RU, 0.116 NWA, and 0.039 ONA stocks. During the study period, the contribution of Asian chum salmon stocks gradually changed from RU to KJP stock. In addition, North American populations from NWA and ONA were small but present near the vicinity of the Russian coast and the Commander Islands, suggesting that the study areas in the western Bering Sea were an important migration route for Pacific chum salmon originating both from Asia and North America during the months of September and October. These results make it possible to better understand the chum salmon stock composition of the mixed-stock fisheries in the western Bering Sea and the stock-specific distribution pattern of chum salmon on the high-seas.  相似文献   
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The chronostratigraphy of a long, onshore Early–Middle Pleistocene marine sedimentary sequence on the south‐east part of Zakynthos island, Greece, is presented. Correlation of the succession with the isotope record of Ocean Drilling Program Site 963 reveals the combined influence of tectonics and eustacy in this area. The sequence is divided into three formations by two main unconformities that apparently relate to sea‐level lowstands associated with two major northern hemisphere glaciations, those of marine isotope stages (MIS) 22 and 12. The Zakynthos sequence in many ways is comparable with the Italian Valle di Manche section. Magnetostratigraphic and rock magnetic analyses, supported by biostratigraphy, document the position of the Matuyama/Brunhes Chron boundary (0.77 Ma), the top and base of the Jaramillo Subchron (0.99–1.07 Ma), the Cobb Mountain Subchron (1.173–1.185 Ma) and the top of the Olduvai Subchron (1.78 Ma). The underlying strata are constrained exclusively by detailed nannofossil biostratigraphy extending at least to the lowermost Pleistocene at around 2.54 Ma and therefore certainly incorporating the base of the Olduvai Subchron (1.95 Ma) and possibly the Gauss/Matuyama Chron boundary (2.58 Ma). In addition, a remarkable increase in sedimentation rate (from 3.2 and 28 cm ka?1 to 167 cm ka?1) and hence resolution above the Matuyama/Brunhes boundary (Middle Pleistocene) reveals one short‐lived magnetic excursion, possibly 17a (0.66 Ma), within the normal polarity Brunhes Chron. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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