Movements,failure and climatic control of the Veslemannen rockslide,Western Norway     

Kristensen  Lene  Czekirda  Justyna  Penna  Ivanna  Etzelmüller  Bernd  Nicolet  Pierrick  Pullarello  José Santiago  Blikra  Lars Harald  Skrede  Ingrid  Oldani  Simon  Abellan  Antonio 《Landslides》2021,18(6):1963-1980

On September 5, 2019, the Veslemannen unstable rock slope (54,000 m³) in Romsdalen, Western Norway, failed catastrophically after 5 years of continuous monitoring. During this period, the rock slope weakened while the precursor movements increased progressively, in particular from 2017. Measured displacement prior to the failure was around 19 m in the upper parts of the instability and 4–5 m in the toe area. The pre-failure movements were usually associated with precipitation events, where peak velocities occurred 2–12 h after maximum precipitation. This indicates that the pore-water pressure in the sliding zones had a large influence on the slope stability. The sensitivity to rainfall increased greatly from spring to autumn suggesting a thermal control on the pore-water pressure. Transient modelling of temperatures suggests near permafrost conditions, and deep seasonal frost was certainly present. We propose that a frozen surface layer prevented water percolation to the sliding zone during spring snowmelt and early summer rainfalls. A transition from possible permafrost to a seasonal frost setting of the landslide body after 2000 was modelled, which may have affected the slope stability. Repeated rapid accelerations during late summers and autumns caused a total of 16 events of the red (high) hazard level and evacuation of the hazard zone. Threshold values for velocity were used in the risk management when increasing or decreasing hazard levels. The inverse velocity method was initially of little value. However, in the final phase before the failure, the inverse velocity method was useful for forecasting the time of failure. Risk communication was important for maintaining public trust in early-warning systems, and especially critical is the communication of the difference between issuing the red hazard level and predicting a landslide.

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Comet Hale—Bopp Shells Expansion: A CCD Study     

Manzini  Federico  Crippa  Roberto  Oldani  Virgino  Guaita  Cesare 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1999,87(2):73-85

Using a CCD camera attached to the 0.335 m and 0.20 m reflectors of S.A.S. Observatory (Novara, Italy), we followed the linear jets and shells of comet Hale–Bopp between May 1996 and May 1997. In addition to confirming the model of Sekanina and Bohenhardt (1997), the study of the linear jets provided indications concerning the orientation of the comet's axis of rotation over time. The study of the shells revealed that the speed at which they move away from the nucleus was not constant. A periodic variation of the shell expansion velocity may not be excluded : if so, a possible precessional effect on the axis of rotation of the comet's nucleus could explain this behavior. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Adaptive POD model reduction for solute transport in heterogeneous porous media     

Calogero B. Rizzo  Felipe P. J. de Barros  Simona Perotto  Luca Oldani  Alberto Guadagnini 《Computational Geosciences》2018,22(1):297-308

We study the applicability of a model order reduction technique to the solution of transport of passive scalars in homogeneous and heterogeneous porous media. Transport dynamics are modeled through the advection-dispersion equation (ADE) and we employ Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) as a strategy to reduce the computational burden associated with the numerical solution of the ADE. Our application of POD relies on solving the governing ADE for selected times, termed snapshots. The latter are then employed to achieve the desired model order reduction. We introduce a new technique, termed Snapshot Splitting Technique (SST), which allows enriching the dimension of the POD subspace and damping the temporal increase of the modeling error. Coupling SST with a modeling strategy based on alternating over diverse time scales the solution of the full numerical transport model to its reduced counterpart allows extending the benefit of POD over a prolonged temporal window so that the salient features of the process can be captured at a reduced computational cost. The selection of the time scales across which the solution of the full and reduced model are alternated is linked to the Péclet number (P e), representing the interplay between advective and dispersive processes taking place in the system. Thus, the method is adaptive in space and time across the heterogenous structure of the domain through the combined use of POD and SST and by way of alternating the solution of the full and reduced models. We find that the width of the time scale within which the POD-based reduced model solution provides accurate results tends to increase with decreasing P e. This suggests that the effects of local-scale dispersive processes facilitate the POD method to capture the salient features of the system dynamics embedded in the selected snapshots. Since the dimension of the reduced model is much lower than that of the full numerical model, the methodology we propose enables one to accurately simulate transport at a markedly reduced computational cost.  相似文献   

Comet Machholz (C/2004 Q2): morphological structures in the inner coma and rotation parameters     

Federico Manzini  Raoul Behrend  Lorenzo Comolli  Virginio Oldani  Cristiano B. Cosmovici  Roberto Crippa  Cesare Guaita  Gottfried Schwarz  Josep Coloma 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2012,337(2):531-542

Extensive observations of comet C/2004 Q2 (Machholz) were carried out between August 2004 and May 2005. The images obtained were used to investigate the comet’s inner coma features at resolutions between 350 and 1500 km/pixel.  相似文献   

Comet McNaught (260P/2012 K2): spin axis orientation and rotation period     

Federico Manzini  Virginio Oldani  Roberto Crippa  José Borrero  Erik Bryssink  Martin Mobberley  Joel Nicolas 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,351(2):435-450

Extensive observations of comet 260P/McNaught were carried out between August 2012 and January 2013. The images obtained were used to analyze the comet’s inner coma morphology at resolutions ranging from 250 to about 1000 km/pixel. A deep investigation of the dust features in the inner coma allowed us to identify only a single main active source on the comet’s nucleus, at an estimated latitude of ?50^°±15^°. A thorough analysis of the appearance and of the motion of the morphological structures, supported by graphic simulations of the geometrical conditions of the observations, allowed us to determine a pole orientation located within a circular spot of a 15^°-radius centered at RA=60^°, Dec=0^°. The rotation of the nucleus seems to occur on a single axis and is not chaotic, furthermore no precession effects could be estimated from our measurements. The comet’s spin axis never reached the plane of the sky from October 2012 to January 2013; during this period it did not change its direction significantly (less than 30^°), thus giving us the opportunity to observe mainly structures such as bow-shaped jets departing from the single active source located on the comet’s nucleus. Only during the months of August 2012 and January 2013 the polar axis was directed towards the Earth at an angle of about 45^° from the plane of the sky; this made it possible to observe the development of faint structures like fragments of shells or spirals. A possible rotation period of 0.340±0.01 days was estimated by means of differential photometric analysis.  相似文献