排序方式： 共有7条查询结果，搜索用时 109 毫秒
1
1.
长江口外海域三维水动力模拟结果及与观测的比较 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Base on ECOMSED model, a theree-dimensional hydrodynamic model is developed in the offshore area near the Changjing Estuary in the East China Sea. This model in driven by tide and wind,as well as inflow and outflowcurrents such as Kuroshio,Changjing runoff. The horizontal resolution is 1/20°. There have 11 layers on the verticaldirection. The numerical results of 4 main constituents of tide(M2,S2,K1,O1)and currents are in good agreement with observation data. Compared with 20 gauge stations,the mean absolute erroe between the caluclated M2 tidal amplitude and the observed oned is only 6.72cm; the mean absolute error of phased-lag is 5.23°.For S2,the mean absolute errors of amplitude and phased-lag are 3.67cm and 7.21°,respectively. The mean absolute errors of amplitude and phased-lag for K1 are 3.25cm and 6.63° For O1,the mean absolute error of calculation and observation is relatively small, amwith observation data measured during Aug., 2006 in the East China Sea.The correlation coeffiients of current between simulation and observation are greater than 0.75 generally. The three-dimensional hydrodynamic model develiped by this paper can well describe the characters of elevation and current in the offshore near the Changjiang Estuary and can be used as hydrodynamic background to simulate the suspend sediment transport in this sea area. 相似文献
2.
利用经验正交函数分解(EOF)、Mann-kendall突变性检验、滑动T检验、最大熵谱分析等方法,分析了河北省1961-2011年降水量的变化情况,结果表明:河北省年降水量空间分布不均,在燕山和太行山迎风坡一侧降水量较大,其中承德南部、唐山、秦皇岛年平均降水量较多,超过600 mm,张家口和承德北部年平均降水量较少,不足400 mm,各区降水量主要呈下降趋势,除故城、盐山、黄骅、昌黎、唐山、滦县、遵化外,大部分台站下降趋势不显著;河北省年降水量的空间分布既有"一致型",也存在"南北型";在时间变化上,除夏季降水量显著减少,5月(8月)显著增加(减少)外,年及其他月季降水量增减不明显;河北省年降水量整体存在2~3 a左右的变化周期,在1996年存在突变现象,而各季节降水量的变化有所不同。河北省降水量的时空特征符合河北地形特点及大尺度气候系统的变化规律。 相似文献
3.
The flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model, Grid-point Version 2: FGOALS-g2 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
李立娟 林鹏飞 俞永强 王斌 周天军 刘利 刘骥平 包庆 徐世明 黄文誉 夏坤 普业 董理 申思 刘屹岷 胡宁 刘咪咪 孙文奇 史湘军 郑伟鹏 吴波 宋米荣 刘海龙 张学洪 吴国雄 薛巍 黄小猛 杨广文 宋振亚 乔方利 《大气科学进展》2013,30(3):543-560
This study mainly introduces the development of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2) and the preliminary evaluations of its performances based on results from the pre-industrial control run and four members of historical runs according to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) experiment design. The results suggest that many obvious improvements have been achieved by the FGOALS-g2 compared with the previous version,FGOALS-g1, including its climatological mean states, climate variability, and 20th century surface temperature evolution. For example,FGOALS-g2 better simulates the frequency of tropical land precipitation, East Asian Monsoon precipitation and its seasonal cycle, MJO and ENSO, which are closely related to the updated cumulus parameterization scheme, as well as the alleviation of uncertainties in some key parameters in shallow and deep convection schemes, cloud fraction, cloud macro/microphysical processes and the boundary layer scheme in its atmospheric model. The annual cycle of sea surface temperature along the equator in the Pacific is significantly improved in the new version. The sea ice salinity simulation is one of the unique characteristics of FGOALS-g2, although it is somehow inconsistent with empirical observations in the Antarctic. 相似文献
4.
Preliminary evaluations of FGOALS-g2 for decadal predictions 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
王斌 刘咪咪 俞永强 李立娟 林鹏飞 董理 刘利 刘骥平 黄文誉 徐世明 申思 普业 薛巍 夏坤 王勇 孙文奇 胡宁 黄小猛 刘海龙 郑伟鹏 吴波 周天军 杨广文 《大气科学进展》2013,30(3):674-683
The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2) for decadal predictions, is evaluated preliminarily, based on sets of ensemble 10-year hindcasts that it has produced. The results show that the hindcasts were more accurate in decadal variability of SST and surface air temperature (SAT), particularly in that of Nin o3.4 SST and China regional SAT, than the second sample of the historical runs for 20th-century climate (the control) by the same model. Both the control and the hindcasts represented the global warming well using the same external forcings, but the control overestimated the warming. The hindcasts produced the warming closer to the observations. Performance of FGOALS-g2 in hindcasts benefits from more realistic initial conditions provided by the initialization run and a smaller model bias resulting from the use of a dynamic bias correction scheme newly developed in this study. The initialization consists of a 61-year nudging-based assimilation cycle, which follows on the control run on 01 January 1945 with the incorporation of observation data of upper-ocean temperature and salinity at each integration step in the ocean component model, the LASG IAP Climate System Ocean Model, Version 2 (LICOM2). The dynamic bias correction is implemented at each step of LICOM2 during the hindcasts to reduce the systematic biases existing in upper-ocean temperature and salinity by incorporating multi-year monthly mean increments produced in the assimilation cycle. The effectiveness of the assimilation cycle and the role of the correction scheme were assessed prior to the hindcasts. 相似文献
5.
年代际预测是近年来气候变化研究的一个迅速发展的新兴热点领域,其首要步骤是进行初始化,目的是为年代际预测提供包含观测变率信息的初值.发展效果好且省时的初始化方法是年代际预测的重大挑战之一,目前国际上主流的初始化方法是耦合资料同化,即在耦合模式框架下进行同化.在年代际预测时,由于模式偏差和初始化方法性能的限制会产生初始冲击问题.目前国际上的各模式机构普遍对北大西洋、热带东西太平洋和印度洋海表温度的年代际预测水平高,而对全球平均近地面气温和北太平洋海表温度的年代际预测水平相对较差.本文主要从初始化方法和年代际预测这两方面的研究现状进行全面回顾,指出存在的问题并讨论未来的发展趋势和挑战. 相似文献
6.
Sea ice is an important component in the Earth’s climate system. Coupled climate system models are indispensable tools for the study of sea ice, its internal processes, interaction with other components, and projection of future changes. This paper evaluates the simulation of sea ice by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5), with a focus on historical experiments and late 20th century simulation. Through analysis, we find that FGOALS-g2 produces reasonable Arctic and Antarctic sea ice climatology and variability. Sea ice spatial distribution and seasonal change characteristics are well captured. The decrease of Arctic sea ice extent in the late 20th century is reproduced in simulations, although the decrease trend is lower compared with observations. Simulated Antarctic sea ice shows a reasonable distribution and seasonal cycle with high accordance to the amplitude of winter-summer changes. Large improvement is achieved as compared with FGOALS-g1.0 in CMIP3. Diagnosis of atmospheric and oceanic forcing on sea ice reveals several shortcomings and major aspects to improve upon in the future: (1) ocean model improvements to remove the artificial island at the North Pole; (2) higher resolution of the atmosphere model for better simulation of important features such as, among others, the Icelandic Low and westerly wind over the Southern Ocean; and (3) ocean model improvements to accurately receive freshwater input from land, and higher resolution for resolving major water channels in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. 相似文献
7.
基于华北区域80个国家地面气象观测站资料,采用大气自净能力指数(ASI)分析了1961—2017年华北区域大气自净能力的气候分布特征及长期变率;用MK和MT法及Morlet小波对ASI进行了突变检验和能量谱分析;结合ASI的REOF空间载荷场分布特征,将华北区域进行分区,并研究了气象要素与华北区域及各分区的可能联系;对于大气自净能力较低的Ⅳ区,选择近年污染相对严重的部分城市（石家庄、保定和唐山）,对比了ASI与污染气象条件及不同级别AQI天数占比情况。结果表明:年、季尺度的大气自净能力在京津冀和山西大部、内蒙古东北部等区域呈现出较低的气候值,在内蒙古中部等其他地区呈现出相对较高的气候值,大气自净能力在季节尺度上呈现出从春季到冬季逐渐下降的变化趋势;区域变暖背景下,冬季风环流减弱,天气过程频率和强度减弱,地面风速随之降低,导致ASI降低;研究区域的ASI与混合层高度、地表通风系数、良和轻度级别天数占比均呈现出同相月变化,而与静稳天气指数、重度和严重级别天数占比呈现出反相月变化规律。根据风速和气温对大气自净能力的影响规律,推测未来大气自净能力很可能进一步降低,因此建议地方政府进行适当的大气污染减排和区域产业升级,有利于控制未来的空气污染形势。 相似文献
1